Wisconsin vs Purdue Odds, Prediction: Why to Bet the Badgers

Wisconsin travels to West Lafayette to open Big Ten play against Purdue.

The Badgers have gotten off to a little bit of a rocky start in the Luke Fickell era. Wisconsin sits at 2-1 after a loss at Washington State in Week 2, but a lot of its metrics are very encouraging.

The Badgers are the favorites to win the Big Ten West and winning this game is crucial if they want to get back to Indianapolis.

It's been a dreadful start to the Ryan Walters era in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers have dropped two of their first three games of the season. Purdue has a lot of inexperience on both sides of the ball — along with scheme changes — which has played a part in why it's struggling.

Purdue has lost 16 straight games to Wisconsin and will be looking to finally break that curse on Friday.

Wisconsin's offense is starting to become really effective, changing systems from a ground-and-pound rushing attack to Phil Longo's high-tempo offense.

The Badgers used to run over 60% of the time, but now they're at basically a 50-50 split between the run and the pass, which has made them less predictable and has made their rushing attack incredibly effective.

Behind the two-headed monster of Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi, the Badgers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry while ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate, 17th in Offensive Line Yards and fifth in Stuff Rate Allowed.

With that effective rushing attack, Wisconsin is 14th in Finishing Drives through three games and overall, Wisconsin is averaging 6.2 yards per play.

Tanner Mordecai came over from SMU via the transfer portal and has been a bit shaky to start life in Phil Longo's offense. He's only averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with a 74.3 PFF passing grade through three games.

It's only a three-game sample size, but Mordecai has been pretty bad when put under pressure this season, which really wasn't that big of an issue for him at SMU.

Image via PFF.

Mordecai, though, has all of the tools at his disposal to succeed. He has a good offensive line in front of him that's allowing a low pressure rate, and all three of Wisconsin's top targets are back from last season.

The Badgers' defense has been pretty average through three games, allowing 4.8 yards per play while ranking 48th in EPA/Play Allowed. They're switching to a new defensive system under Mike Tressel, who was with Fickell in Cincinnati.

They returned eight starters from a defense that was top-20 in EPA/Play Allowed last season, so they should improve as the season goes along.

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There are a lot of changes happening on the offensive side of the ball for Purdue, as Jeff Brohm's Air Raid and Aiden O'Connell have left, making way for Graham Harrell and Hudson Card to come in.

Harrell has a pretty even 50-50 split in terms of pass versus the run in his career, while Brohm was throwing the ball close to 58% of the time.

Harrell's balance has remained through Purdue's first three games, which may end up being a benefit in the long run. But so far the only word to describe the Purdue offense would be "inept."

The Boilermakers have played a more difficult schedule than most, but they're currently 73rd in Success Rate, 87th in EPA/Play and 101st in Finishing Drives.

The problem really has been that they can't run the ball. Despite having starting running back Devin Mockobee back from last year, he's only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and Purdue is outside the top 100 in both EPA/Rush and Offensive Line Yards.

Card has been OK as a passer (71.0 PFF passing grade, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt). But if we go back to last season with Texas, he started three games when Quinn Ewers was hurt, and he didn't play well.

In those three games, he failed to have a PFF passing grade over 70 and didn't have a single big-time throw. He also fumbled the ball four times in their last game against Syracuse.

Walters coached one of the best defenses in the country last season at Illinois, which got him the job here at Purdue. Through three games, the Boilers have some work to do on defense.

They had a lot of transfers come in and have a lot of inexperience all over the field, which has led to them allowing 5.4 yards per play and ranking 89th in EPA/Play.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Purdue match up statistically:

Wisconsin Offense vs. Purdue Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	25	50
Line Yards	17	16
Pass Success	72	96
Havoc	17	66
Finishing Drives	14	126
Quality Drives	96	90

Purdue Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	98	81
Line Yards	107	63
Pass Success	56	54
Havoc	83	91
Finishing Drives	101	29
Quality Drives	76	37

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	41	125
PFF Coverage	100	106
Special Teams SP+	7	31
Middle 8	101	117
Seconds per Play	25.4 (42)	25.4 (40)
Rush Rate	51.2% (84)	49.5% (75)

Even though this is a good get-right spot for Purdue — after Wisconsin allowed Georgia Tech to get inside their 40-yard-line eight times — I think it's a bad matchup for the Boilers.

Even though Mordecai has been average through three games, Purdue is outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Pass Allowed and coverage grade because it has a lot of inexperience in the secondary.

Card has also proven to be an average quarterback at best, so when the pressure is on his shoulders because Purdue can't run the ball, it's a bad combination for Harrell's offense.

I have Wisconsin projected at -10.1, so I like the value on the Badgers at -5.5, and I would play it up to -6.5.