The college football player prop market is fun, and it's an excellent way to add extra value to your Saturday card.
This week, our expert staff found five valuable NCAAF player props, including picks for Will Shipley, Jalen Milroe, Riley Leonard, DJ Uiagalelei and Tahj Washington.
Read on for a full written breakdown of all five picks.
Week 4 NCAAF Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Florida State vs. Clemson
Will Shipley
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
Cade Klubnik has been Captain Checkdown (6.5 YPA) in Garrett Riley’s offense, and I don’t see that changing against a Florida State defense that gets after the quarterback. The Noles blitz at a 27% clip, higher than the national average. And when they send four, Jared Verse is a nightmare off the edge. That should translate to at least five targets for Shipley in this one.
With 65 career receptions, it wouldn’t be the first time Shipley showed out as a receiver. Last season, against Florida State, Shipley went for six receptions and 48 yards. Given Riley’s desire to feature him in the passing game and his preference to use Phil Mafah as a battering ram, we could see Shipley double this prop on Saturday.
The final piece of this handicap is that Shipley has 11 targets through three games, but he’s been pulled early twice. So he’s actually averaging over one target per quarter thus far in 2023. Props like this are about opportunity, and he’ll have plenty against the Noles.
Pick: Will Shipley Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 25.5)
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Jalen Milroe
Over 211.5 Passing Yards
After a bizarre game against USF where Milroe was benched to, apparently, test his leadership skills, the electrifying dual threat is back as QB1 for the Crimson Tide.
Milroe is a classic case of having all the tools to be a great college quarterback. He's explosive with a big arm. Among QBs with at least fifty dropbacks this season, Milroe ranks second in Big Time Throw rate at 14%. He also ranks third in average depth of target at 14.4 yards. To me, these numbers indicate a quarterback willing to push the ball downfield, not one who is skittish and looking to bail on clean pockets.
In an interesting year for Alabama, I would argue that Milroe is the least of their worries. It is imperative that Alabama’s offensive line figures out what they need to do to improve. Against Texas, Milroe was skittish, yes, but with good reason. The Crimson Tide’s tackles seemed to be getting beat consistently off the edge, and the interior was crumbling, leaving him nowhere to go with the ball far too often.
He should have much more time to throw against an Ole Miss defense ranked 114th in Havoc. In fact, a game against a good opponent that struggles to pressure the quarterback may be exactly what Milroe needs to get this season back on track.
Pick: Milroe Over 211.5 Passing Yards (Play to 214.5)
Duke vs. UConn
Riley Leonard
Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
By Alex Hinton
The forecast in Storrs Saturday afternoon calls for temps in the 50s and rain. It may be difficult to throw the ball in those conditions. However, that is just fine for a Duke team that runs the ball over 60% of the time.
Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is second on the 208 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He leads the team with 8.3 yards per carry. That may be surprising for a quarterback, but he has been sacked just once through the first three games. That includes a game against Clemson’s defensive line.
Leonard averages over eight yards per carry because of his ability to break the big one. He had a 44-yard highlight reel touchdown run against Clemson. He also had a 33-yard scamper last week against Northwestern.
This week, Leonard will face a UConn defense ranked 109th in Rush Success Rate. It has particularly struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks. NC State’s Brennan Armstrong and Georgia State’s Darren Grainger combined for 238 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Huskies.
Leonard has smashed this line in two of three games this season, with 97 and 98 rushing yards. We only need 58 rushing yards from here. However, he may join Armstrong and Grainger in approaching 100 against UConn.
Pick: Leonard Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 60.5)
Oregon State vs. Washington State
DJ Uiagalelei
Over 216.5 Passing Yards
By Cody Goggin
I’m unsure if this line is set on DJU’s career averages, but his yardage prop is too low this week.
We are three games into Uiagalelei’s tenure in Corvallis, but things look better. In his two games against FBS opponents, DJU has thrown for 239 yards and 284 yards. Against UC Davis, the Beavers were well ahead and did not need to throw much, so he had just 107 yards on 13 attempts.
Oregon State must throw the ball to keep up with Washington State’s offense this weekend. However, passing does seem to be the preferred method of moving the ball against the Wazzu defense. The Cougars are 49th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 20th in rushing PPA allowed, but 67th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 74th in Passing PPA allowed.
Wisconsin threw for 278 yards against Wazzu, while Colorado State had 320 in week one. FCS opponent Northern Colorado currently has the #98 offense in SP+ at their level, but they still threw for 208 yards and a 64th percentile EPA per Dropback against this defense.
Oregon State also wants to air it out more this year. They only passed the ball 39% of the time last season, but that's jumped to 46.8% this season.
I believe that Oregon State will throw the ball more than the books expect, and DJ Uiagalelei will be able to go over this low total.
Pick: Uiagalelei Over 216.5 Passing Yards (Play to 224.5)
USC vs. Arizona State
Tahj Washington
Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
Finding someone to back on the USC offense is never a bad option, especially when it is playing one of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
Washington will likely only see three quarters against the Sun Devils, but that’s been the case all year, and he’s had no problem eclipsing this mark. Through three games, Washington has recorded 85, 75 and 73 receiving yards, respectively. Since joining forces with Caleb Williams in 2022, Washington has exceeded this number in 12 17 games.
Washington currently leads the Pac-12 in yards run per route (6.1), so when Williams finds him, it’s usually for a big play. The fifth-year senior averages 25.9 yards per catch, the sixth-highest mark in the country.
This number seems so low because, despite the poor season for Arizona State, its pass defense has been relatively good. The Sun Devils only allow 203.7 yards passing per game (58th in the FBS), but a receiver on the opposing team has always eclipsed 48.5 receiving yards.
Even in these blowouts, the Trojans are still only rushing the ball 43.9% of the time (23rd lowest in the country), so I expect Washington to have plenty of chances to cash this bet.
Pick: Washington Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 55)
