We're starting to get into the heart of the college football schedule, which means we have more data on teams. That's a great benefit, especially in the totals market.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 5:
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off with three over/unders to bet in Week 6.
Oklahoma vs. Texas
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
This is probably the best game on the board for Week 6, and I think the total is a tad too high.
Even though Texas is one of the most talented offensive teams in the country, the Longhorns really haven't graded out well in a number of metrics to begin the season. They sit outside the top 25 in Success Rate, EPA/Play and Finishing Drives.
The real problem with the Longhorns, though, is they can't seem to run the ball with consistent success. Texas is averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a team, but that average has been built on a lot of explosive runs. In fact, the Longhorns rank outside the top 70 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed despite Jonathon Brooks' 218-yard performance against Kansas last week.
Meanwhile, Brent Venables has completely turned Oklahoma's defense around and has a front seven that's completely terrifying to run on. Oklahoma leads the country in Stuff Rate and ranks third in Defensive Line Yards and 10th in EPA/Rush.
That means there's likely going to be a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers and the passing game. Ewers' numbers have been fine this season, but he's certainly not jumping off the page.
Image via PFF.
Oklahoma ranks top-20 in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed, so it will be well-equipped to handle Ewers. Plus, Venables is one of the best defensive play-callers in the country.
On the other side, Dillon Gabriel has put up some gaudy numbers for Oklahoma this season. But let's be honest — it's been against some pretty bad defenses.
Even if you look at his last two games against Cincinnati and Iowa State, his PFF passing grade came in below 70 and he committed four turnover-worthy plays combined.
OU's offensive success is essentially on Gabriel's shoulders as well because the Sooners haven't run the ball well thus far. As a team, Oklahoma ranks 91st in EPA/Rush, 100th in Offensive Line Yards and 103rd in Stuff Rate Allowed.
Texas has been outstanding against both the pass and the run, ranking fourth in Success Rate Allowed and 12th in EPA/Play Allowed. Most importantly, the Longhorns have been awesome defending their end of the field, as they're seventh in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is always going to play fast, but he has slowed things down pretty considerably this season. It could be because the Sooners have been in so many blowouts, but Oklahoma ran a play every 20.2 seconds in 2022 compared to 24.8 in 2023. Meanwhile, Texas operates its offense at an average pace of 25.8 seconds per play.
I only have 53.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 60.5 points.
Michigan vs. Minnesota
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 46.5 -114o / -106u | -1600 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 46.5 -114o / -106u | +860 |
Michigan has been steamrolling everyone in its path to begin the season.
The Wolverines have outscored their opponents, 172-3o, and not one opponent has put more than seven points on the scoreboard.
The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense. The Wolverines run the ball on 61% of their offensive plays and are playing at the second-slowest pace in the country — behind only Air Force — running a play every 31.9 seconds.
They're 22nd in Rushing Success Rate but 122nd in rushing explosiveness, so it's a lot of three- to four-yard runs over and over again.
JJ McCarthy is one of the most efficient passers in the country when he's called upon to throw. He's averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and owns a PFF passing grade of 90.6 with an adjusted completion percentage of 80.8%.
The key to limiting McCarthy is forcing him to take check-downs and short passes because he will destroy defense if he's given the opportunity to throw over the top.
Image via PFF.
Minnesota's offense has been pretty terrible so far this season, failing to run or pass the ball efficiently. The Gophers are averaging just 5.1 yards per play and rank 96th in EPA/Play.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has struggled this season, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt with a 62.2 PFF passing grade. The problem is he can't throw the ball downfield. He's attempted 44 passes over 10 yards and has completed only 20 of them without a single big-time throw.
That's a big problem because Minnesota isn't built to play from behind. The Gophers run the ball on 61.5% of their offensive plays and try to make Kaliakmanis' life easy with only high-quality throws.
It's no surprise that Kalikmanis had his worst game of the season when they traveled to North Carolina and fell behind. He went 11-of-29 for 133 yards and a 41.6 PFF passing grade in the loss to the Heels.
Minnesota also boasts a very average rushing offense, ranking 69th in EPA/Rush. Now, star running back Darius Taylor — who's averaging 6.1 yards per carry and leads the Big Ten with 532 yards rushing — missed the last game with a leg injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.
Michigan's defense has been one of the best in the nation, but that's especially true against the run. The Wolverines are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and rank inside the top five in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
That means they'll put pressure on Kaliakmanis to beat them through the air, which is something I'm not sure he's capable of doing.
I only have 41.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 47.5 points. If you're betting this at FanDuel, make sure to take advantage of Action’s FanDuel Promo Code.
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
This should be a really fun game.
Lane Kiffin has one of the best offenses in the country at his disposal, which was on full display in their 55-49 win over LSU this past weekend.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart has really taken the leap into stardom this season by putting up some gaudy numbers. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with an 86.7 PFF passing grade and also has run the ball for 7.8 yards per carry.
Arkansas ranks 101st in explosive passing allowed, so Dart could have himself another highlight-filled day.
Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins has struggled to get things going on the ground, averaging just 4.2 yards per carry this season. However, he does already have five touchdowns and has forced 15 missed tackles with 11 runs over 10-plus yards.
Arkansas has been pretty average defensively, but the problem with the Razorbacks is they give up far too many explosive plays. The Hogs have really played only one elite offense in LSU, which gained over 500 yards and scored 34 points against them.
Plus, I'm not sure how the Razorbacks are going to fare against one of the fastest tempos in the country with Kiffin running a play every 21.8 seconds.
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has been really good through the air this season even if the game against Texas A&M proved to be a big-time struggle. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and has 11 big-time throws with a PFF passing grade of 86.5.
The biggest thing with Jefferson is the offensive line keeping him upright. He's been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks this season, and there's a pretty big difference in his performance with a clean pocket and under pressure.
Image via PFF.
Razorbacks running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders also made his return for the Texas A&M game after missing the previous three contests. Although he didn't have a great game against the Aggies, he was one of the best backs in college football last year, running for almost 1,500 yards and forcing 65 missed tackles on 6.5 yards per carry.
Ole Miss has been pretty bad defensively, and the game against LSU last weekend showed just how vulnerable it is in the secondary. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels threw for 414 yards and four big-time throws against the Rebels last weekend, lowering their coverage grade rank to 92nd in the nation.
The Rebels' front seven is pretty weak as well, ranking outside the top 80 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so Arkansas should have no trouble moving the ball.
The Razorbacks aren't playing at a very fast pace under offensive coordinator Dan Enos, but if they fall behind — which is likely going to happen — they will be forced to play at Ole Miss' pace.
I have 70.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 62.5 points.
