The Tanner-Mike Pick-and-Roll duo is back with their four favorite plays for a monstrous, top-10-matchup-filled Saturday slate.
Tanner is targeting a big showdown in the Mountain West alongside an undervalued SEC spot, while Mike is backing a familiar America East friend alongside KenPom’s top-rated squad.
 |  |  |  |
McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
Utah State vs. San Diego State
San Diego State doesn't look like the Aztecs of old.
They’ve lost three of the past five, sinking to 5-3 in Mountain West play, stuck in lousy fourth place.
Meanwhile, Utah State is a bulldozer. Behind Great Osobor, the Aggies have built one of the nation’s best interior-based offenses and rode it to a 7-1 start in league play, sitting atop the MWC standings.
So, what better time to buy low on San Diego State and sell high on Utah State?
The Mountain West is no longer SDSU’s stomping grounds. It’s a potential six-bid league, and the Aggies have encountered problems against the league’s elite.
Those three losses mentioned above came against KenPom No. 20 New Mexico, KenPom No. 51 Boise State and KenPom No. 37 Colorado State, all on the road. All three are firmly in the Field of 68, and all three have dangerous weapons at their disposal – New Mexico has the mid-major’s most dangerous backcourt, Colorado State has Isaiah Stevens, and Boise State has switchability and strong home-court advantage.
These losses shouldn’t be held against the Aztecs. All three are good losses to great teams on the road. They only lost to Boise by one and cut Colorado State’s lead to one late in the second half. The blowout loss to New Mexico is forgiven because The Pit is cursed ground for any incoming opponent.
San Diego State is not playing that poorly. The Aztecs still lead the MWC in conference-only defensive efficiency (100.4) and eFG% allowed (48.9%). Brian Dutcher hasn’t lost his defensive fastball yet.
ESPN BET is now online and you can use Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.
I also think the Aztecs are due for positive shooting regression. They’re only shooting 29% from 3 in conference play, but ShotQuality projects that number should be 33% based on the “quality” of attempts. The Aztecs are 5-3 with three excellent losses and bad luck.
That isn’t bad. It’s actually the profile of a team I’m looking to buy.
Meanwhile, Utah State is due for a loss. The Aggies’ four road games have resulted in a win over Air Force, a one-point win over UNLV, an overtime win over Boise State, and a 13-point loss to New Mexico. They’ve had some close-game luck go their way during this stellar start.
And while San Diego State is getting unlucky on offense, Utah State is getting crazy lucky on defense. Aggie opponents are shooting 27% from 3 in conference play, but ShotQuality projects that number closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.
On Saturday, I’m betting that some overdue San Diego State shots fall against a Utah State defense due for some shots to fall against them.
From a schematic perspective, I don’t love the matchup for San Diego State. However, it’s worth mentioning that the Aztecs have primarily struggled against elite guards in ball screens, explaining losses to the Lobos and Rams. Utah State is more of a cut-and-post interior-based offense, so the Aztecs’ primary weakness could be minimized.
Either way, the situational spot is too good to ignore, and I feel like this could be a Dutcher “kitchen sink” game – I expect the Aztecs’ best effort and Dutcher’s best game-plan against the current “best” team in the conference.
And this is all without mentioning the Mountain West’s home-court advantage, which is monstrous. MWC HCA is a tough cookie, as home teams are 28-16 SU and 25-19 ATS in conference play this year.
San Diego State is 5-3 ATS at home this year, and the Aztecs' net rating jumps from -5.2 on the road to +22 at home, mostly because their infamous defense shows up at Viejas.
Meanwhile, Utah State is 2-5 ATS on the road, with the Aggies’ net rating dropping from +23.7 at home to +4.6 away.
Additionally, fading ranked teams on the road has been a cash cow this year. Utah State just slipped into the top-25, sitting at No. 17, while SDSU remains unranked.
Expect a monster home-court bounce-back performance from San Diego State and a road letdown from the Aggies. Throw in looming regression, and I’m all over the ‘Tecs on Saturday.
The ShotQualityBets model projects SDSU as a seven-point home favorite over USU, so I'm giddy to grab Dutcher and Co. under six.
Pick: San Diego State -5.5 (Play to -6)
Florida vs. Texas A&M
Coach Cal lost a national championship because he refused to foul up three.
When will he learn?
Cal’s (somewhat infamous) stubbornness handed Florida a much-needed overtime win, and Todd Golden’s Gators have chomped their way back toward the top of the SEC standings.
Florida’s snuck away with a few lucky ones during this four-game win streak, also beating Georgia in overtime last Saturday.
So, I’m betting on a letdown game after two consecutive overtime wins against a Texas A&M team I’m unreasonably high on.
Did you know the Aggies rank fourth in ShotQuality’s adjusted efficiency rankings? Where is the disconnect between those rankings and KenPom’s, where they’re 47th?
It’s because Texas A&M will start making shots eventually.
The Aggies rank in the top 50 nationally in ShotQuality’s Shot Selection metric, so the site projects they should be shooting about 33% from 3 based on the “quality” of attempts. Instead, they’ve made 25% of their 3s in SEC play.
The Aggies do so much well. Wade Taylor is a stud point guard, leading a relatively efficient ball-screen attack. They don’t turn the ball over and get to the line plenty. Nobody crashes the offensive boards better or makes the most of 50/50 balls and broken plays (.74 miscellaneous PPP, 13th nationally). They’re among the nation’s best interior defenses, allowing only 25 paint points per game (98th percentile).
Eventually, shots should fall, and Texas A&M will turn into a wagon.
Otherwise put, the Aggies are undervalued.
I’m hoping the Aggies make a few on Saturday in a solid bounce-back spot after an unlucky home loss to Ole Miss – the Rebels shot 10-for-24 from 3, a 41% mark uncharacteristic of an average offensive squad.
I’m betting on them either way.
Aside from the situational spot and regression play, I don’t think Florida can keep TAMU off the boards. Again, the Aggies rank first nationally in offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game (18). In contrast, Florida ranks 133rd in defensive rebounding rate and 220th in offensive rebounding PPP allowed (1.1), allowing nearly 12 second-chance points per game (28th percentile).
Initially, I was worried that Florida’s drop-coverage scheme would bother Texas A&M’s rim-running offense. But after a second analysis, I’m rather optimistic.
While drop-coverage is a passive scheme that prioritizes protecting the 3-point line and rim, I’m not that high on Florida’s interior wall. The Gators allow 34 paint points per game (27th percentile) and is around the D-I average in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.13, 163rd). Defensive anchor Micah Handlogten isn’t an elite interior defender by post-up PPP allowed (.92, 38th percentile).
Why should I trust these guys to stop a volcanic rim-running offense?
Even if they do, drop defense baits ball-screen handlers into taking mid-range shots, and the Aggies are comfortable in that area. They’re shooting 37% in the mid-range (61st percentile) while scoring .82 PPP (82nd nationally).
Also, I expect the Aggies to generate favorable matchups via switches, as they’re an isolation-heavy offense going up against a poor isolation defense – Florida’s allowing .91 iso PPP, sub-300th nationally. Walter Clayton and Tyrese Samuel are good one-on-one defenders, but Zyon Pullin, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh aren’t, so look for Taylor and Tyrece Radford to hunt matchups and score.
Here are a few good examples of Radford overwhelming anyone in his path.
On the other end of the court, Florida runs the floor more than almost any team, getting out in transition at the nation’s fourth-highest rate. Transition denial is crucial against the Gators.
I think Texas A&M should hang fine, given the Aggies rank in the top 70 nationally in transition PPP allowed (.94).
Let’s try and wrap this up in a few lines:
Florida’s in a letdown spot after a lucky win, while Texas A&M is in a bounce-back spot after an unlucky loss. The Aggies should be a wagon with better luck, but the schematic matchup is good enough that they might not need the luck. Crash the glass, get isolation mid-range and point-blank buckets, deny transition buckets, and you’ll cruise to a relatively easy home victory.
The ShotQualityBets model projects Texas A&M as a five-point home favorite over Florida on Saturday, so I'm happy laying three or better.
Pick: Texas A&M -1.5 (Play to -3)
| | | |
Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
Binghamton vs. Vermont
The bullies of the America East are back, ladies and gentlemen.
After a sleepy start to the season — John Becker’s team opened 9-5 — the Catamounts have reeled off eight straight wins. That includes a recent three-game road trip in which the Cats vanquished UMass Lowell and Bryant, UVM’s only real competition for the AmEast regular-season crown.
But if we’re being honest, I had this game circled before the Catamounts shifted into fifth gear.
Vermont has Binghamton’s number, plain and simple. The Catamounts have dominated the past 10 meetings, winning by an average margin of 24 points. Even with the Bearcats playing better lately, I’m not stepping in front of this Vermont freight train.
This is also Becker’s deepest team in years, which is extra valuable this season. The America East’s pivot to Thursday-Saturday conference games from Wednesday-Saturday has put depth and fresh legs at a premium. Nine Catamounts play 14-plus minutes per game.
Per Tanner McGrath, The Action Network’s America East expert, Coach Becker confirmed to him personally that his team’s depth has been an advantage in conference play this season.
And these players aren’t just eating up minutes. They’re taking turns leading UVM on the floor.
The Cats have featured eight different leading scorers in the last nine games. As a result, UVM is nearly a top-100 offense, per Haslametrics, KenPom and EvanMiya.
I can’t envision a scenario in which Binghamton slows Vermont down at Patrick Gymnasium, especially after the Bearcats allowed 82 to the Catamounts at the Events Center two weeks ago.
Also, keep in mind that UVM doesn't run the floor. The Cats average only six fast-break points per game (323rd nationally), meaning Vermont is surgical in the half court and inside the arc (55% 2-point shooting, 39th nationally).
The Bearcats are among the worst 3-point defenses in the AmEast (35%, 275th nationally) and foul far too often (20.8 free-throw attempts allowed per game, 270th). Pair that with Vermont's steady ball-handling (9.2 turnovers per game, seventh), and the Cats should drop another 80 points on Binghamton's head.
With the two dregs of the conference on deck (NJIT, UMBC), we also avoid any lookahead factor.
I’m on Vermont up to -16.
Pick: Vermont -15 (Play to -16)
Houston vs Kansas
Let’s start with a quick history lesson to set the scene on Saturday.
The Jayhawks have closed as a home dog twice in the past 35 years. As 4.5-point ‘dogs to No. 2 Baylor three years ago, the Jayhawks summoned the best performance of their season and wiped the floor with the Bears by a score of 71-58.
Before that, you needed to return to the 1980s to find a time when oddsmakers and the public doubted Kansas at Phog Allen. The top-ranked Oklahoma Sooners — led by Mookie Blaylock and National Player of the Year Stacey King — survived an overtime thriller in Lawrence in 1989 as four-point favorites.
As Stuckey likes to say, overtime is where 'dogs go to die, and after forcing OT, the Sooners covered by one, 94-89, in the extra period.
The rationale for Kansas catching points on its home floor this time is pretty simple. It boils down to defense and injuries.
On the injury front, Kevin McCullar Jr. sat out the Jayhawks' last game with a bone bruise on his knee. Bill Self has appeared confident that McCullar would give it a go on Saturday, but given the nature of that injury, he won’t be 100%.
The senior wing has meant everything to Kansas on the offensive end, and his statistical impact (20/6/5 average) cannot be overstated. When he doesn’t play at his best, this Kansas team is nothing more than an also-ran in Big 12 circles.
All you need to do is flip on the tape of his quiet 16-point performances against Iowa State and UCF to understand how dependent Self is on his superstar.
Speaking of critical injuries, it’s also been revealed that Hunter Dickinson has been laboring through a knee injury this month and limped off in their last game.
Defensively, these two teams are trending in opposite directions.
According to Bart Torvik, Kansas was the 19th-rated defense in the season's first two months. But in January, its play slipped significantly, grading out as the 65th-rated defensive team.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are no longer competing against their contemporaries. They’re going for history. By KenPom’s defensive figures, the only two teams in the last decade that compare to U-of-H this season are 2019 Texas Tech and 2015 Kentucky.
Kelvin Sampson’s defense is wildly impressive, to put it lightly. Houston leads the nation in eFG% allowed (41%), ranks third in turnover rate (22%) and also ranks third in 3-point shooting allowed (28%)
When you drill down to a player-by-player level, the Coogs feature a handful of the nation’s top individual defenders. Evan Miya’s ratings of the top-25 most impactful defenders in the nation feature four Cougars, including the top two in the nation (Jamal Shead, Ja'Vier Francis)
I believe a limited McCullar will struggle with Houston’s on-ball pressure on Saturday. And from a game-planning standpoint, Dickinson won’t get comfortable in the half court or on the offensive glass.
That leaves freshman Johnny Furphy to do the heavy lifting.
Since joining the KU starting lineup, Furphy has been shooting nearly 50% from long range, averaging 15.4 points per game across the past five. The Coogs rarely give up quality looks from long range, and Furphy is overdue for a negative shooting regression after a red-hot January.
The final reason I’m on U-of-H is that Sampson’s team knows how to demoralize opponents.
In football, you do it by hitting big chunks of plays and taking the ball away. In basketball, it comes down to sustained runs. And no team in America puts together more runs than Houston.
The Cougars lead the nation in “Kill Shots,” which are runs of 10-0 or better. So far, they’ve produced 27 while only conceding four, giving them the best KS-Margin (+23).
I'm betting Houston quiets the rowdy crowd in Lawrence and wins by close to 10 points, so I would lay up to five in this spot.
Pick: Houston -2.5 (Play to -5)
| | | |
