It has not been a season to remember for the Charlotte Hornets.
The Hornets are terrible at 16-49, dead last in the NBA in both Net Rating and Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) metric. Even worse, they're not even particular interesting, with LaMelo Ball out indefinitely injured and Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and P.J. Washington all gone from the roster.
But with betting now live in North Carolina as of Monday, FanDuel has posted a new in-season win total for just the Hornets at 18.5, and though the Hornets aren't super interesting, you know what is? Making money.
Charlotte is dead and long forgotten as we hit the final month and head toward the playoffs, but the Hornets need just three more wins to hit the over 18.5. Here's why I like that bet.
The Hornets Are More Bad Than Terrible over the Last Month
Charlotte has only three wins by double digits all season. In fact, the Hornets didn't have a single win by more than seven points any time in their first 51 games. Pretty pathetic.
But those three double-digit wins have all come over the past month, along with three other wins by eight, nine, and nine points. Put differently: the Hornets had zero wins by 7+ in their first 51 games and now six such wins in their last 14.
So what changed?
The Hornets are playing defense now. Over the last 15 games, the Hornets sit at 110.6 in Defensive Rating. That's pretty good! In fact, it ranks sixth in the NBA, behind only the Pelicans, Celtics, Timberwolves, Heat, and Bucks. Those five defenses are really good! Maybe Charlotte's defense is playing well now too.
Before the All-Star break, Charlotte's Defensive Rating was an awful 120.3. That was dead last in the NBA, and so was Charlotte's -10.8 Net Rating, by almost two full points. The Hornets are up to -6.0 Net Rating these last 15 games, still not good by any stretch, but far from the horror show the first few months of the season.
Actually, you'd expect a team with the No. 6 defense to be much better than -6.0 net, but the Hornets rank dead last in Offensive Rating at 104.6 during this recent stretch. Not great, and a step down from 109.5 before the break, which already wasn't good.
Still, this is the profile of a team that can steal some wins down the stretch — and remember, we only need three.
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Defense travels, and defense shows up night after night, giving teams a solid floor. Defense keeps your team in the game, just long enough for one of your shooters to get hot and hit a few shots late and steal one.
Charlotte's offense clearly isn't good and won't become good over the final month, especially if Ball and Mark Williams remain out, but the beauty of the NBA is that plenty of stars can get hot and parlay shooting variance into a big night.
Maybe Miles Bridges has another 40-point game. Maybe rookie Brandon Miller goes wild. Perhaps Davis Bertans gets hot and drains eight or nine 3s. Nick Smith and Tre Mann can catch lightning in a bottle, too.
Is Charlotte's defense really sixth-best over a larger sample size? Probably not. The Hornets are getting some shooting luck, though the offense is hurt by the same metric. Still, it makes sense that the defense would look much better without Ball and Rozier at the point of attack, and adding stout, smart defender Grant Williams into the lineup.
The Hornets aren't good now. They just not might be terrible anymore either.
Charlotte's Schedule Leaves At Least Three Wins to Be Had
The other reason to like this over is that we only need three wins from a very doable schedule down the stretch.
Charlotte won three games heading into the break and has remained competitive since. Really, the Hornets have been competitive with a chance to win in all but one of their past 14 games.
And there's no real reason to think the Hornets will tank hard over the final month. Charlotte already has five more wins (16) than Detroit and Washington (11) and a couple more than San Antonio (14). It's valuable getting into those bottom three slots for the lottery, but not by a huge margin.
This is also a very weak draft at the top. There's no Victor Wembanyama this year, nor anyone even close. There's not even a clear No. 1 pick. Whether Charlotte ends up drafting first, third, or fifth is not as much of a difference as in some years.
Instead, the Hornets may actually put their foot on the gas pedal and try. Steve Clifford is likely coaching for his job. Guys like Mann, Vasilije Micic, and Bryce McGowans are trying to find a foothold in the league. Miles Bridges is playing for a big contract. And the team badly needs to establish a winning culture, something for which Grant Williams was the perfect addition.
What better way to end the season than a few try-hard, nose-to-the-grindstone, defense-first wins — at least three, please, and thank you?
Charlotte has 17 games left. To hit the over, we just need the Hornets to go 3-14.
Here's the remaining schedule:
- at Grizzlies
- Suns
- at 76ers
- at Magic
- at Hawks
- at Cavaliers
- Cavaliers
- Warriors
- Clippers
- Celtics
- Blazers
- Magic
- Thunder
- Mavericks
- at Hawks
- at Celtics
- at Cavaliers
I bolded five games on the list because they look eminently winnable for Charlotte. The Hornets already beat the Hawks by 23 in the last month, and at least one of those Atlanta games will come with Trae Young out. Philadelphia is in a tailspin without Joel Embiid. The Grizzlies and Blazers are as bad as the Hornets.
Don't those five games feel pretty close to coin flips for Charlotte with its improved defense? If the Hornets are 50% to win each of those five games, we're at 2.5 wins from the bold games alone — already at our 18.5 expected wins, with the other 12 games to go.
Even dropping that win percentage to 40% still means 2.0 wins expected. Let's go with that. Now we need one more win.
For the sake of simplicity, let's just assume Charlotte is a big long shot in every other game. It doesn't always work that way, you know. March is the doldrums of the NBA. Some teams just no-show any given night. Some rest their guys with an eye on the postseason. The Hornets may not actually be huge long shots every game.
Even if they are, long shots still win sometimes. The Grizzlies were 15-point road underdogs in Oklahoma City on Sunday. That left Memphis at +750 on the moneyline — which still priced them at 11.8% chance to win the game.
If Charlotte has an 11.8% chance of winning those 12 other non-bolded games, they still win 1.4 expected games. Add that to our 2.0 from the easier matchups and we're a full win over the mark we need.
If Charlotte even has a 17% chance of winning any one of those tougher games, we're now over 4.0 total expected wins, a whole win above the number we need — and that's closer to where I think this line should've been set.
One last thing — look at those last two games again: at Boston, at Cleveland. Those are about as guaranteed as losses get, on the road against maybe the two best teams in the East. But maybe not!
Boston will almost certainly have long since clinched the No. 1 seed in the East by then and may well be resting its stars for the playoffs. Cleveland could be resting too, as the Cavs continue to deal with a slew of injuries, or even tanking to lose on purpose for a preferred postseason matchup.
If even one of those games goes from 10-to-15% to 50% or higher, that's almost half a win added to our total. And that's true of any other game on the list, when a team happens to rest four guys that night because it's the NBA in March and that's what happens.
And so you have it.
The Hornets may not be fun or interesting or even good. But they're no longer horrible right now, and they only need three wins to cash this over.
At the posted -188, we need this bet to cash about 65% of the time to bet the over. Even at that juice I like the bet — juiced bets aren't bad if the odds are in our favor — and I'm a little sad we can't bet an alternate over-19.5 or 20.5 too, because that's where I think this line should actually have been posted.
Welcome to betting, North Carolina. Let's get that dough.
