The Golden State Warriors are back in the playoffs and ready to face the Houston Rockets in a thrilling first-round matchup. Despite being the No. 7 seed, the Warriors are slight underdogs in this series.
With Stephen Curry leading the charge and Jimmy Butler adding his playoff experience, the Warriors are poised to challenge the young and dynamic Rockets squad. Houston, led by rising stars like Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, will look to leverage their home-court advantage and youthful energy to take an early series lead.
Continue below for our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions, picks, and odds for the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
Rockets vs. Warriors First Round Series Betting Odds
- Series Winner: Warriors -180, Rockets +145
- Series Spread: Warriors -1.5 games (+105), Rockets +3.5 games (-130)
Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs Predictions, Picks
Brandon's thesis for the Warriors-Rockets series is simple: "The Warriors can win this battle but already lost the war." His approach blends matchup nuance, series outcomes, and the toll of attrition.
🎯 Brandon's Best Bet: Warriors in 5 or 6 (+158 combined)
“My best bet here is Warriors in five or Warriors in six… I get +158 that way. So, I’m getting like a 39% implied rather than the betting them on the series spread at -1.5 (-115), so around 52%.”
Supporting angle: Brandon prefers this combo over the standard series spread because it skips the sweep and game seven, offering better value with limited downside.
Contextual edge: “I'm giving them a game. I'm giving them a chance to win at least one game and I think probably more. I'm not taking the sweep.”
🔥 Attrition Concerns for Golden State
“The mileage that they took out of those two grueling tough games… The injuries to Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Steph Curry… The attrition always comes back to bite this team.”
Big picture warning: “I think they can still win a battle… but I think that the battle wounds are going to add up and cost them any real chance at a deep run.”
🔁 Matchup Concerns but Still Leans Golden State
“The longer the series goes, the less I like the Warriors because the attrition is building up.”
Tactical lean: He’s fading a long series even if “the Warriors can go to Houston with their veterans and get the job done.”
📈 Bonus: Series Leader Prop Angles Coming
“I do actually think my favorite series here is player props on this one… I have a lot of angles for game to game and series leaders.”
Stay tuned: Brandon is holding fire on specific prop markets but teases there's value once lines post.
🚀 Matt Moore's Rockets vs. Warriors Series Predictions
By Matt Moore
Matt Moore goes the other way, aiming for value with a side that’s getting disrespected by the market.
💵 Best Bet: Rockets to Win Series (+165)
“I’ll take the Rockets with home court… +165. I ran power ratings on this and I come out with Rockets +113.”
Math check: That +165 number translates to an implied 37.7% win probability. Matt’s model gives them 47%.
Market mismatch: “That to me sounds right. Plus 165 does not.”
🧠 Matchup Breakdown Backs It Up
“The Warriors had their 6th lowest effective field goal percentage this season versus Houston.”
Defensive edge: “They didn’t let the Warriors shoot well. They didn’t turn the ball over. They dominated the boards.”
🤔 Cautious, But Not Buying Golden State’s Illusion
“I will maintain and keep saying this: I do not believe in this Warriors team.”
Narrative fade: “The market is like Houston’s a fraud and the Warriors are legit… I’m kind of like, yeah no.”
📉 Clutch Time and Officiating Risk
“Warriors had the third-highest foul rate drawn of any Rockets opponent this season… 29% free throw rate vs. 18% for Houston.”
If whistle changes: “If this is a playoff whistle… no blood, no foul… I think Houston can win the series.”
🛠 Built in a Lab to Guard Steph
“If you got in a lab and created a player to defend Stephen Curry, it’s Amen Thompson.”
On-ball defense boost: Matt loves Amen’s screen navigation and off-ball tracking.
