What a weekend. The opening games of the 2023 NBA Playoffs did not disappoint and Sunday's games had two top-two seeds lose at home and three dogs win outright.
Monday night's slate is relatively light compared to the four games a night we just experienced over the past 48 hours. The Nets look to bounce back on the road against the 76ers after a 20-point blowout loss and the Kings look to follow up their thrilling win against the Warriors at Golden 1 center.
Our analysts are all over tonight's doubleheader with eight best bets today. Read on for their in-depth breakdowns and expert picks for those two playoff games below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Anderson: James Harden simply isn't scoring like he used to. Harden has only scored more than 23 once since March 4, and Game 1 was a reminder that this is a different version of Harden.
The Nets defended Harden daring him to drive to the basket and finish there, but he's just not doing that as much these days. The old Harden staple has dried up this year and especially so down the stretch as the Beard deals with that late-season injury.
Harden averaged just 14.1 PPG his final seven games of the season, despite playing over 36 minutes a game. You can spot the difference in his 2s, attempting just 7.6 per game and making an ugly 43% of them. He also scored only 17 points at the line in those seven games, barely over two per game.
That's the Harden we saw in Game 1 — it was just disguised. He finished with 23 points and 13 assists, just what Philly needed, but those 23 points came almost entirely behind the arc. He hit 7-of-13 3s but went just 1-of-8 inside the arc and didn't even attempt a free throw.
This is a bet on more of the same, just without him hitting so many step-back 3s this time. Harden went over this points line in Game 1 with that final 3, but he was under it in nine of his last 11 regular season games. The way things are going for Harden right now, he might need five or six 3s to go over.
I'll play an alternate under at Bet365 too, at +280 to go under 15.5. He did that in five of the final seven regular season games, and Brooklyn's defense means even that might take four 3s to go over. I'm just not sure Philly needs Harden to score much in this series, and we might get reduced minutes in garbage time to help our cause too.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Bryan Fonseca: There might be better locks on the board, but I want to take a shot at something with plus odds.
Joel Embiid had three assists in Game 1, with the same over/under, but the contest itself unfolded as one where he could've easily gotten four plus.
Ultimately, Embiid is going to see pressure in the form of double teams, traps, crowding, etc for as long as this series lasts. He'll be hitting shooters in the corners and on the wings, and perhaps cutters following the occasional offensive rebounds. He'll have to once James Harden's shot inevitably stops falling — he hit seven threes in Game 1, but it's the playoffs, and history will tell you not to rely on him game-to-game, especially at this stage.
Embiid averaged 4.2 assists per game this season, and 4.3 since the All-Star Break. Nic Claxton being a viable defensive presence in Embiid's way should also provide openings for assist opportunities, conventional wisdom would suggest.
I think Embiid will have a high (say six or more) assist game at some point in this series — that exact number, he has hit on 16 occasions this season. Maybe it's Game 2 — hopefully it is for the sake of this play.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Matt Moore: Since 2003, when a team wins Game 1 at home and is favored in Game 2 and is favored by more than they were at the close of Game 1, those teams have gone 39-26-1 (60%) ATS. In the last ten postseasons, 61%, and in the last five, 13-5-1 ATS (72%!).
The Nets threw a lot at the Sixers in Game 1 and it didn't even begin to matter. The Sixers got an outlier Harden game from deep and that masked trouble with both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Mikal Bridges will have his fill vs. drop coverage from Embiid but the Sixers will kind of live with it.
The Sixers can win this game with defense by closing better on shooters or offense by getting a steadier diet of Embiid and Maxey.
The Sixers have a lot they can adjust for Game 2, the Nets have pretty much the same stuff. Double Embiid, hope he turns it over, bomb from deep. I'll lean towards the over here as well, but ultimately, this is a Nets team that was thrown together. They can't harbor any misconceptions about their chances or future.
I think the Sixers roll again.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: The beam was lit on Saturday night for the Kings' first playoff win in almost 20 years.
De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk had 70 of the Kings 126 points on a combined 6-12 from beyond the arc. Trey Lyles led all other Kings scorers with 16 points on 4-6 from deep. The rest of the Kings scored just 40 points going 2-14 from 3-point range.
Domantas Sabonis was a crucial rebounding presence for Sacramento, pulling down five of his 16 rebounds on the offensive glass, but even the rebounding domination couldn’t make up for his other defensive and offensive deficiencies.
Sabonis had a -9 plus-minus in his 35 minutes on Saturday—an unsurprising stat given his history against the Warriors. In 408 career minutes against Golden State, Sabonis has a -76 plus-minus according to Statmuse.
On the Warriors side, Steph Curry had a perfectly respectable 30 points, but Klay Thompson had a rough shooting night (8-19 from the field, 5-14 on 3s) as did Jordan Poole (4-10, 2-5 from 3).
The Kings played extremely fast, with a 105.5 pace, which played to their offensive advantage, while mitigating the Warriors advantage defensively as they were largely unable to set their defense and get crucial stops.
I expect Steve Kerr and company to slow things down in Game 2 in order to minimize that historic offensive advantage for Sacramento. I think we get another close on Monday, but I like the Warriors to even the series and I’d bet them down to -2.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Brandon Anderson: I backed the Warriors in Game 1, and after what we saw there, I have to back them again.
The Kings won the opener, and it was a ton of run. They lit the beam, De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk filled it up, and Sacramento made this look like a real fight. But it sure felt like a whole lot of things had to go right for the Kings to escape with a home win by a missed wide open Wiggins 3.
The Kings got a great whistle late with 32 free throws, racked up 17 offensive rebounds, and seemingly couldn't miss down the stretch with Monk, Fox, Trey Lyles, and Alex Len all having big games. The bench was a big advantage too, with the Warriors +11 when Steph Curry played but -14 without.
The Warriors looked a lot like the Warriors again in Game 1. Despite the late miss, Wiggins looked terrific and like he didn't miss a beat. He scored a bunch of easy buckets and was a big addition defensively, and I expect more Wiggins on Fox in Game 2 as he ramps up minutes. His return stabilizes the lineup and the defense.
The Warriors hit a blistering 68% of their 2s, much like they did all season against this team, but they lost their minds in the fourth quarter and couldn't stop jacking up and missing 3s. Expect them to get back to more easy buckets in Game 2 and to have some new answers for what Fox and Monk did in Game 1.
This Warriors dynasty has never gone down 0-2, and they've only trailed by two games in any series twice ever. I don't expect them to start now. I grabbed the Warriors at +1, but if this line continues to rise past -1, I'd just play the moneyline for the win.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Munaf Manji: Game 1 of Warriors vs Kings was the best game of the weekend. At least in my opinion. But I believed the Kings were in a must-win situation in on their home floor going up against the reigning champions. The Kings were an Andrew Wiggins open 3-point shot away from falling behind.
I am going to bank on the Warriors to bounce back in Game 2. Since the 2016 postseason, the Warriors, after taking a loss, follow up by going 18-4 (81.8%) straight up and 15-7 (68.2%) against the spread. If the Warriors are on the road in that instance, the Warriors are 6-2 (75%) straight up and 6-2 (75%) against the spread.
The Warriors have been in this position countless times in their playoff history with Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and head coach Steve Kerr. The offense is going to score at will, but the Warriors will make the defensive adjustments. I love the Warriors to bounce back in game two.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Matt Moore: RUN IT BACK. I bet Warriors in Game 1 and lost painfully, but I'm back to the well here. Domantas Sabonis is losing his minutes, Steph Curry is winning his.
The Kings got a phenomenal performance from Malik Monk and an absolutely all-world performance from De'Aaron Fox and it was awesome. But it's hard to do that twice when the Warriors can play so much better.
Klay Thompson wasn't bad; he was horrible. The Warriors' defense was good until it wasn't; they got tired in a high-pressure environment.
This series is uncharted territory. The only time a team was a road dog in Game 1 (Warriors closed +1) and then were road favorites in Game 2 after a loss was 2021 when Chris Paul got hurt in Game 1 vs. the Lakers.
The Kings showed up big time, but I think the Warriors proved they can match with them, and I'll take the team who got a bad variance game and still almost won.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Joe Dellera: During the NBA Playoffs, Steph Curry sees an uptick in his minutes overall, but this minutes increase is exploitable in the first quarter. Over his last 19 playoff games, Curry has had a pretty solid floor of 10 minutes in the first quarter, but generally plays all 12 minutes. This game is one that will be played with Pace and the Pace in Game 1 was 105.5, which would have been the fastest mark in the league by far.
One thing the Warriors like to do is get Curry’s hands on the ball as fast as possible to kickstart transition opportunities and one of the best ways to do so is to use Kevon Looney and Draymond Green to box out while Curry snags the defensive boards. This is how the Warriors like to get out in transition and save seconds off their possessions while increasing offensive efficiency.
Over his last 19 Playoff Games, Curry has recorded two or more first quarter rebounds in 15 of them, including three in Game 1 vs the Kings. I like this to continue tonight.
