The wait is over. We get real basketball tonight as the NBA season tips off with a double-header to start off what should be an interesting year around the Association.
In the early matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers head to Boston to face the Celtics, while the Golden State Warriors will get their championship rings at home with the Los Angeles Lakers visiting for the late game.
Our NBA analysts have been waiting to dive into some meaningful action and they've got six bets for tonight's double-header. You can find their analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Matt Moore: This opened at 213.5 and has been steamed to 216, with a few 216.5's in the market. I have this projected at 225 based on last season's numbers.
The Sixers' offense was third in the first quarter in preseason (when starters play most often). Boston's offense was high but their defense was also a bit wonky in preseason relative to standards. I'm not going to take too much away from that, but the overall scope of this game feels like it's closer to an over than an under.
This won't hit a number I won't like it at — I grabbed it at 215 — but anything over 216 and you're probably chasing too much steam.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Chris Baker: This total has shot all the way up to 216 from 213.5 and I think the move is warranted. Both of these teams were bottom-five in pace last season, but there are reasons to believe that these teams play faster this year.
Both of these teams were top-six in points per fastbreak possession off live-ball rebounds during the pre-season, per Cleaning the Glass. Last season the Celtics ranked 30th and the 76ers ranked 24th in this statistic, so it is clear that these teams are trying to play faster.
Philadelphia was 27th in the NBA in transition points per 100 last year so if the Celtics push the ball in transition they should see consistent success. Doc Rivers has talked consistently about getting Tyrese Maxey and James Harden to push the pace and that will certainly be a point of emphasis against the Celtics for this game as Boston’s half-court defense is stifling even without Robert Williams. His is the second reason I like this over as he is obviously a defensive presence for the Celtics.
Without Williams, we should expect more five-out from Boston, which should lead to more offensive efficiency as Embiid and the 76ers bigs struggle to close out on the Celtics 3-point shooters. He absence should also should enable Philly to have consistent matchup advantages with Embiid in the post when they are in the half-court.
Ultimately, I expect both of these offenses to have consistent success in both the half-court and transition, so I am comfortable playing the 216 despite missing the best number.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Munaf Manji: All the reports indicate that James Harden has come into shape and dropped significant weight for this upcoming season.
Additionally, Harden has his ex-Rockets teammates on the team now in P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. Harden comes into the season as the primary ball handler and the point guard for this team so let's not forgot he turns the ball over at an alarming rate.
Last season, Harden averaged close to 4.5 turnovers per game. However, over his last 10 career games versus the Celtics, Harden has four or more turnovers in nine of those games. The lone game he didn't have four or more turnovers was in the last matchup where he ended up with three turnovers.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Boston Celtics were the best defensive rated (106.2) team in the league. I believe the opening night jitters will get to Harden and the defensive pressure by the Celtics defense will cause Harden to turnover the ball over as he has throughout his career against the Celtics.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Joe Dellera: Since James Harden’s arrival in Philadelphia, he has transformed their offense into a much more cohesive machine due to his distribution skills and his gravity. He has averaged 21 points, 10.5 assists, and 7.1 rebounds in 21 regular season games with Philly but what I’m much more concerned about is his median output and that is 11 assists.
He’s the lead facilitator for the 76ers and despite some preseason comments about Harden being asked to shoot more, that has more to do with spacing, not because they need Harden to be a scoring threat.
He’s been asked to shoot more shots from midrange (floaters and step-backs) partially to improve the spacing for Embiid and Harrell to dive to the basket but also because he’s lost a step in his driving ability.
This line opened at 7.5 assists which was just flat out disrespectful and has since moved to 8.5 and I still like that spot. He’s cleared 8.5 assists in 15 of his 21 regular season games with Philly. I fully expect Harden to lead this high powered 76ers’ offense.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Kenny Ducey: James Harden is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He shot just 41% from the field and 33% from three, and when you consider he shot 40.2% and 32.6% with the Sixers, respectively, you can see a pattern developing here.
Harden simply isn’t the scorer he once was, declining as he reaches the age of 33. He can no longer be counted on to get to the line 10 times per game, and instead he’s taken on the role of a distributor, averaging over 10 assists last year for a second straight season.
So, while this number seems rather low for a player of Harden’s caliber, I think it makes plenty of sense given he averaged just 21 points with Philly last year.
The Sixers have added some serious depth to this lineup and Tyrese Maxey is only going to be hungrier for minutes and usage. I think we will see Harden take another step back here in this offense as some of the emerging talents take on a larger role, and with that I’m going to short him on Opening Night.
I’d expect Matisse Thybulle to steal some minutes away as the Sixers look to lock up Jaylen Brown as well.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Brandon Anderson: We tip the new season off just how the last one ended, with the champion Golden State Warriors. So why not tip the year off with a bet we ended last year with too?
Warriors third quarters have been a trend for almost this entire Golden era. The team tends to take a bit to get its gears moving, but they come out guns blazing in the third quarter with one of those patented burn-it-all-down runs, hit a barrage of 3s, and put the poor opponent away.
It's always hard to know what sort of emotions will run through a team on a banner night, and the Warriors have plenty of emotions to sort through as it is with the Draymond Green incident. I won't be surprised if it's a slow start.
But eventually, I expect the Warriors to win out. The core of the title team is still there, and I'm banking on familiarity with the Warriors machine winning out. This is a whirring motion machine unlike any offense in the league, one that takes a long time for defenses to figure out.
We saw that in Game 1s of playoff series last year as Golden State looked invincible early. Against a Lakers team with so many moving parts and new pieces, it's hard to see their defense having the cohesion to communicate and hang with this offense.
That inevitable Warriors landslide is coming, and I'll bank on it coming in the third quarter.
Golden State had a +10.5 Net Rating in the third quarter last season, second best per NBA Advanced Stats, and they were absolutely untouchable at home at an incredible +16.7. The Lakers were -10.6 on the road in the third quarter. Combined, that's more than a point every four possessions in the Warriors' favor.
Play the moneyline or spread if you want, but when that third quarter landslide hits, it usually hits hard. I'll play the Warriors to win the quarter by 5+ at +150, and if you're so inclined, you can sprinkle a bit of your bet on the +475 odds to win the quarter by double digits.
We're right back where we left things off. Take me home, Warriors third quarter.
