Total for the first meeting was 48.5. That should come down for the rematch, and what happened there matters, but this feels like an overreaction by the market. I'd lose some enthusiasm here if George Pickens can't go.

Good chance Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts this game, in which case I'd make the Bengals 10-point favorites.

Commanders won't have Noah Brown and likely Zach Ertz, but I just don't know how huge of a falloff that is, even with those guys being hugely involved. Think Marshon Lattimore could start to make this defense look better soon, too.

I'm pretty well above market here, both due to the Bills' offense's ability to score in all game states and my being slightly above market on Drake Maye.

Even with a big downgrade without Maxx Crosby, I still have the Raiders favored here. Aidan O'Connell could play, and he should fare well against this defense if so. Also feels wild to make Mac Jones a road favorite against any team in 2024.

Have the Bucs favored by 7.7. Offense can be a flame-thrower indoors, and the o-line should be able to keep Micah Parsons somewhat in check.

Packers' offense is playing too well for a total this low against a bad defense. Should be able to put up points in all game states.