Reddick's history at Dover is mid, but his dirt-racing background makes me think he'll be good on concrete long-term. He did win here in Trucks back in his age-19 season, as well. I've got Reddick at 55.3% to finish top 10, up from 48.8% implied. Also willing to bet him outright +2200 or longer (+2000 at FD).

I have Gragson at 26.0% to finish top 10, well above the implied odds here of 16.7%. He was good in both Richmond and Phoenix, and he had a top-10 at Las Vegas using this same rules package. Gragson is a two-time Bristol winner in Xfinity and nearly won here in Trucks in 2018. Given the overall speed he has shown, I agree with the model that +500 is too long for this market.

Tough to bet against Hendrick, but with Toyota running so well on non-drafting tracks, I have their win odds closer to 50% than the 40% implied here.