The NHL's lone Saturday matchup should be a good one. Game 1 between the Golden Knights and Oilers was a wildly exciting back-and-forth affair that ultimately finished with the Knights claiming a much-deserved 6-4 win.
Both teams showed elite defensive play down the stretch, particularly the Knights so far in the playoffs. Yet I am still unconvinced we'll see lower-scoring affairs.
Oilers defenders such as Vincent Deshernais, Philip Broberg and even Darnell Nurse have struggled at times at five-on-five. Vegas' deep four-unit attack should continue to prove a handful for the Oilers, and Stuart Skinner has offered middling play in goal this postseason.
Nobody can keep Edmonton's top stars in check, though, and that continues to be the case dating back to last season. Laurent Brossoit has been surprisingly dominant down the stretch and has a solid start to the postseason with a +0.7 GSAx. But I'm also not counting on such strong play to continue.
You don't see many game totals of 7 come playoff time, but tonight's seems well-earned. Action will help our same game parlay below
Same-Game Parlay: Oilers vs. Golden Knights
The Parlay (+375 at Bet365)
- Oilers moneyline
- Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
- Jonathan Marchessault over 2.5 shots on goal
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline
The Knights deserve a ton of credit for what they did to Edmonton in the series opener. The Oilers had displayed strong play in all facets of the game over the last two months.
That all came undone in Game 1 when the Oilers were outplayed badly at even strength. Despite some opportunistic goal-scoring from Leon Draisaitl, who had a ridiculous four-goal game, they could not steal the victory.
That was the worst performance from Edmonton in months, however, so I think a bounce-back could be on the horizon. An Oilers win would also improve the chances of our next two legs cashing in, which is where some of the value in putting this selection comes from.
There are going to be matchups that Vegas consistently owns in this series at five-on-five. They have a more well-rounded defensive core and should have a far more talented third line.
However, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Evander Kane have far more to offer at even strength than we saw in Game 1. Edmonton has some untapped productivity.
The Oilers did not play well at even strength in Game 1, but they've proven they're more than just McDavid and Draisaitl.
If you have a power play clicking at greater than 50% as Edmonton does, it's hard to lose if you can play moderately well at even strength. There are months of priors that state Edmonton is more capable on that front than we what we saw in Game 1.
Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer
McDavid drew a little criticism for what was somewhat of an off night in Game 1. Still, he had two primary assists, four shots on goal, and played to a 56% expected goal share. The Oilers were +1 with McDavid on the ice at even strength.
There were some uncharacteristic bobbles in the offensive zone, but I don't think we need to worry about the best player in the game. He created some high-quality looks at even strength and could break through on that front in Game 2.
McDavid had his chances in Game 1 despite not having his "A" game. If he really brings it tonight, the looks will be there and should mean a breakthrough on Laurent Brossoit.
If the Oilers are to break through with a win tonight, I still think it will mean a productive night from McDavid and Draisaitl. My case is that the Oilers are capable of playing closer to even in minutes without the top stars. Not necessarily that they are likely to win without their two-headed monster being very productive, so this leg is a solid bet if we think the Oilers will win.
We could see an adjustment from the Knights on the penalty kill that could help McDavid's chances of scoring. Draisaitl feasted in Game 1 with two of his four goals coming on the power play. Edmonton continues to prove that taking away all of their options on the man advantage is essentially impossible, and if you want to play McDavid aggressively, other options will open up.
Ryan Nugent Hopkins to score at any time is another decent idea if you think Vegas will focus on taking away Draisaitl's one-timer on the man advantage. My concern is he's been quiet at five-on-five. But I think he's a decent target too.
Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Vegas' top line of Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Marchessault terrorized the Oilers in Game 1. The trio combined for four points and 15 shot attempts in 11 minutes of play together at even strength.
Marchessault's 81.97 xGF% was the best rating in the game, and he had four shots on goal from five attempts. Marchessault is goal-focused, and if his line continues to spend lots of time in the offensive zone, we should see eye-popping shot-attempt numbers.
His 19.6 shot attempts per 60 is the highest mark of any Golden Knight in the playoffs. He also led the team with 19.9 shot attempts per 60 in the regular season.
Marchessault's shrinking time on ice this postseason is a valid concern with this bet. The Knights are offering four quality offensive units and have effectively used a win-by-committee approach. Mark Stone's return also means Marchessault is off of the top power-play unit.
However, his lighter workload in the playoffs could be due to how much time the Knights have spent playing in front. They have spent the majority of five of seven playoff games playing with a lead.
If we believe in the Oilers moneyline tonight, then obviously we do not believe the Knights will be protecting a multi-goal lead like they've when Marchessault's ice time has been lower.
There's a lot of value in backing Marchessault to record over 2.5 shots on goal.
