Last week's spots finished 5-5, which felt about right with a lucky win in Colorado State and an unfortunate one with South Carolina.
Regardless, as always, last week was last week, so no sense in dwelling. We're onto Week 8 of the college football season.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, rough weeks in this gig are inevitable. I won't avoid a 2-6 stinker Saturday in perpetuity, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
After a couple of consecutive splits, hopefully we can get back on track in Week 8 where I have highlighted my eight favorite spots below, starting with three noon kicks and a heavy dose of Big Ten underdogs throughout.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 27-22-0 +2.68 units (55.1%)
- Overall: 72-42-1 +26.60 units (63.2%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | UCF +18.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Navy +11.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Indiana +5.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Minnesota +4.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Wake Forest -115 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Michigan State +24.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | USC -6.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Arizona State +28.5 |
UCF +18.5 at Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
After three straight losses, including a 29-point blowout defeat in its most recent game at Kansas, I believe we have hit the bottom of the market on UCF, which really could have benefited from a complete reset during a much-needed bye week.
That Kansas loss also may have been a residual effect of an absolute meltdown of epic proportions against Baylor in the game prior.
Plus, the Knights haven't had starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee for those three losses outside of one quarter before being pulled due to his knee still bothering him. His running ability is paramount to this offense, and it appears he's now close to 100% based on his comments earlier this week.
Plus, even with the injury to Plumlee, UCF still ranks 15th nationally in net yards per play — one spot ahead of Oklahoma. And just a few weeks back, the Knights closed as less than a touchdown favorite at Kansas State with Plumlee.
This is too big of a correction, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, the bye might not have come at the right time for an Oklahoma team that had all of the momentum on its side after beating Texas to stay undefeated on the season.
However, in that game against the Longhorns, the Sooners — who allowed over 500 yards of total offense — benefited from a 3-0 turnover margin, a goal-line stand and some horrid clock management by Steve Sarkisian that allowed the last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.
They easily could have lost that game. They also had some struggles against SMU and Cincinnati in games that were much closer than the final score indicated.
Oklahoma also leads the nation in turnover margin and has been quite fortunate in scoring opportunities on both sides of the ball. Sure, some of that has to do with the Sooners having a very good team, but a few advanced metrics suggest some looming regression that could work against them in the near future.
UCF should also have a close to 100% Plumlee, who should have success with his legs against an Oklahoma team that hasn't seen a true mobile quarterback yet this season.
The Sooners will also have to make do on offense without leading receiver Andrel Anthony, who is now out for the season with an injury. They may really miss his presence on the outside since it's not a position with a ton of reliable depth.
Finally, there's also a ton of familiarity between these two staffs, which I think generally works in the underdog's favor.
Notable Nugget
Gus Malzahn is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 10 or more days to prepare for an opponent, covering by an average of 9.5 points per game.
That makes him the seventh most profitable coach in our Action Labs database in this spot among 450 coaches since 2005.
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Navy +11.5 vs. Air Force
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Last year, Navy lost at Air Force, 13-10, as 14-point underdogs, which shouldn't surprise anybody who follows service academies closely.
They simply know how to ugly up a game with limited possessions, especially when they face each other, which makes it very difficult for favorites to cover bigger numbers in games that usually have super low totals, as we have with this matchup in Annapolis on Saturday.
The advantage that service academies have had in the past is they run a unique offensive scheme — the triple option — that opposing defenses aren't used to facing. That lack of familiarity makes up for a talent gap that Army, Navy and Air Force have.
Well, that's not the case when they go head-to-head since they get to practice against the triple option every day in practice.
Both teams come into this game with major quarterback questions, as Air Force starting quarterback Zac Larrier was seen in a brace after leaving the last game with an injury.
Larrier has been nothing short of spectacular this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry in conjunction with four passing touchdowns to no interceptions with a sparkling 71.4% completion percentage.
If he can't go, Jensen Jones would likely get the nod under center with one career pass attempt. As a result, the already run-heavy Falcons — who lead the nation in rush rate — would have to almost go exclusively to the triple option, abandoning the explosive passing game that has worked so well this season.
That's good news for a Navy defense that has one of the worst secondaries in the country.
Last week, against another team that can't throw the ball in Charlotte, the Midshipmen pitched a shutout, which they also did against pass-averse Wagner. That's a good sign heading into this matchup.
Meanwhile, Navy also has questions at the quarterback position.
After losing Blake Horvath to injury, veteran Tai Lavatai went down with an injury last weekend. As a result, Navy turned to freshman Braxton Woodson, who could get the start again — although the more experienced Xavier Arline could also get time under center if Navy wants to go with an exclusive triple-option attack after mixing in a bit more passing this season under new head coach Brian Newberry.
Yes, Air Force has started out 6-0, but the Falcons have faced one of the nation's easiest schedules so far with wins over Robert Morris, Sam Houston, Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming. Only one of those teams currently sports a winning record, and all six have struggled to defend the run.
Service academy matchups always have limited possession due to a speeding clock throughout. That will be even more amplified in the first service academy matchup under the new clock rules, which will make it extremely difficult for Air Force to win by a substantial margin.
It could simply take a fumbled pitch or failed fourth down after an Air Force drive that eats up most of a quarter for Navy to stay within this number.
Lastly, don't sleep on Navy punter Riley Riethman, who's putting together a very solid campaign so far in 2023. In a game where field position will be uber-important, Navy holds the edge in the punting department, which could make all of the difference.
Notable Nugget
Service academies are 87-70-5 ATS (55.4%) when catching more than a touchdown since 2005.
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Indiana +5.5 vs. Rutgers
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Indiana let me down last week, but it was simply overmatched by Michigan in the Big House after a nice start following the bye week that saw the Hoosiers make a change at offensive coordinator.
You're just not going to win on the road with an extreme talent discrepancy with four turnovers and special teams blunders that led to five short fields for Michigan.
However, this week, Indiana will get to play at home against a team much closer to its own weight class in Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights have darted out to a 5-2 start, but the schedule has certainly been beneficial with wins coming against Wagner, Temple, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and most recently Michigan State in a game Rutgers needed two Sparty special teams mistakes to overcome a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit.
Overall, it's had a strength of schedule that I have ranked below the national average, while the Hoosiers have played one of the country's toughest schedules with contests against Michigan, Louisville, Ohio State and Maryland already behind them.
This looks like a prime spot to fade a Rutgers team that has benefited from an easy schedule and will be playing its eighth straight game prior to its bye week.
Meanwhile, Indiana recently had its bye week and can tweak some things it tried out under a new offensive staff in a game it really needs to keep any real hopes of bowl eligibility alive.
Plus, this is still a horrendous Rutgers offense that will need to win by margin on the road in conference, which I'm more than fine making it prove it can do in a game with a sub-40 total where points will come at a premium.
Lastly, the Hoosiers have also had horrid fumble luck, so maybe a bounce or two will eventually go their way.
This is sitting in a dead zone, so I haven't bet it yet, as I'm waiting to see if it goes up to +6 or higher first.
Notable Nugget
Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, this will mark the first time Rutgers is a road favorite of more than a field goal in league play.
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Minnesota +4.5 at Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
On the surface, this is a great sell-high spot on an Iowa team that's playing its eighth straight game against a Minnesota team that should come in much fresher after a much-needed bye week.
The Gophers should also be a bit healthier with the likely return of running back Darius Taylor, who missed the past two games, and the probable season debut of their best linebacker, Cody Lindenberg.
I also don't mind buying semi-low on a 3-3 Minnesota team that has two losses against undefeated North Carolina and Michigan in addition to one against Northwestern in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter.
The Hawkeyes have inexplicably started the season with a 6-1 record, but the offense has never been in a worse place, which is saying something for Iowa.
After an upset win over Wisconsin, which lost its starting quarterback to injury, I'm itching to fade this team, especially as a favorite.
Not only does Iowa have one of the worst offenses in the country (ranking dead last in Success Rate) with a backup quarterback now under center, but it also lost its only two reliable weapons to injury in tight ends Luke Lachey and now Erick All, who led the team with two catches for 19 yards last week.
Since taking over as the starter, Deacon Hill has completed 23-of-62 passes (37.1%) for 262 yards in three games in which Iowa was outgained by 52, 95 and 127 yards. That's really bad.
So, how have the Hawkeyes managed to pull these games out? Well, the same way Iowa always does: turnovers, defense and special teams.
However, it's a different story when you need the Hawkeyes to win by margin against an absolute snail in Minnesota. In a game with an absurdly low total of 32.5, points should come at a premium, which makes the underdog even more enticing in a game that could realistically end 13-10.
From a matchup perspective, Iowa simply can't take advantage of a Minnesota secondary that has allowed far too many explosive passing plays. The offense will once again have to solely rely on a rushing attack that ranks 125th in rushing EPA and 128th in Rush Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Gophers, who want to run as much as any team in the country, may find some success on the ground against an Iowa defense that grades out below the national average in Rush Success Rate allowed.
It really can only build any margin with turnovers or special teams play in a game that should have a rapidly moving clock. I'll take my chances with the fresher and healthier road dog against one of the worst offenses in the country.
Notable Nugget
As a home favorite of more than four points in conference play, Iowa has gone just 14-26-3 ATS (35%) since 2005. Over that span, only Florida State has been less profitable in this spot.
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Wake Forest ML -115 vs. Pitt
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This appears to be a prime spot to buy low on the Demon Deacons after they dropped their third straight game in embarrassing fashion at Virginia Tech.
However, I believe that effort was severely impacted by the close loss at Clemson the week before in addition to a flu bug that hit the locker room leading up to the game.
Dave Clawson, one of the best motivational head coaches in college football, should have his troops ready to go for a homecoming game Wake Forest desperately needs after an 0-3 start to ACC play.
It will take on a Pitt team that finds itself in a tough situational spot after an upset win over Louisville with games against Notre Dame and Florida State looming on deck. Can you say sandwich?
The Panthers did look a bit better on offense after turning to Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux at quarterback, but last week's win had more to do with the flat spot the Cardinals found themselves in and a 3-0 turnover edge. In the end, Pittsburgh was still outgained, 430-288, and still has major issues across the board.
The Wake Forest offense is undoubtedly broken, as opposing defenses have caught on to the fact that they can just blitz Mitch Griffis — who should get the start after getting pulled last week — to no end against an offensive line that simply can't hold up.
That's certainly concerning against an aggressive Pitt defense, but I still believe the small home favorite holds a bit of value in a great situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Following a multi-game losing streak, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since 2005.
Among nearly 400 coaches in our Action Labs database, Clawson only trails former Kansas State head man Bill Snyder in terms of profitability in this spot.
North Carolina sports betting is now live! Demon Deacons fans, check out our sportsbook reviews to sign up for your preferred books ahead of Wake Forest vs. Pitt today.
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Michigan State +24.5 vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
Michigan has won every game by at least 25 points this season, but it's still a very methodical offense that will have trouble building significant margin with the new clock rules without turnovers and short fields, which the Wolverines have benefited from in each of their four conference victories.
In fact, their opponents have a -8 turnover margin and a 4-for-11 fourth down conversion rate compared to Michigan's 7-for-8 mark. Those things matter significantly in games with limited possessions.
I'd have to guess this is as close to the top of the market we'll get all season on Michigan, which has played a laughable schedule to get to 7-0 against the following teams:
- East Carolina
- UNLV
- Bowling Green
- Rutgers
- Nebraska
- Minnesota
- Indiana
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number, which I make closer to 20.
This is still a big-time rivalry and what will now be Michigan State's Super Bowl in a lost season. The Spartans offense also did look a lot better overall last week after making a change at quarterback and going with Katin Houser, who now has one start under his belt.
The Spartans have been bad, but they've played a pretty tough schedule to date with four losses coming against teams with a combined 22-5 record.
Plus, the Michigan State defense has played a bit better over the past two games.
The perception might be slightly different on the Spartans if they didn't blow late leads in each of their past two games on the road against Iowa and Rutgers in which they were outscored, 34-0, in the fourth quarter after holding both teams to 13 and 6 points through three quarters, respectively.
A major reason for those blown leads can be attributed to special teams blunders, which will be a concern weekly with the Spartans after losing so much talent in that department this past offseason.
I expect Sparty to come out with their hair on fire and to throw everything and the kitchen sink at their in-state rivals. It likely won't be anywhere close to enough to put a real scare into the supremely more talented Wolverines, who now sit at No. 1 overall in my latest power ratings.
However, I do think it will be enough to get off to a decent start and eventually cover what I show to be an inflated number against a Michigan team playing its eighth straight game before its bye week.
Lastly, I also show a bit of value on the under in what I project to be a lower-scoring game than the market implies, which makes the sizable underdog even more attractive.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, we've only seen a spread of over three touchdowns in this rivalry three times.
In all three instances, Michigan State covered by an average margin of just under two touchdowns and actually won one outright back in 2020.
For what it's worth, 24.5 would tie the largest spread we've seen in this matchup since 1990.
Michigan residents: Don't forget to check out local Michigan sportsbook Play Gun Lake when betting this inter-state clash. New users get $125 in bonus bets if their first $10+ wager wins!
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USC -6.5 vs. Utah
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
After an embarrassing loss in South Bend, this looks like an appetizing spot to back the home Trojans, who will be seeking double revenge for a pair of defeats at the hands of Utah last season.
Utah finds itself with a 5-1 record, but I have not been impressed by a Utes team that just has no passing offense to speak of without quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, who I assume will both remain out again this week with rumors swirling of both taking a redshirt ahead of the transition to the Big 12. They also just lost new starting tight end Thomas Yassmin to a season-ending injury.
Utah still remains a very formidable team at Rice-Eccles with one of the best home-field advantages in college football — although its three home FBS wins have come against Graham Mertz and a pair of freshman quarterbacks making their first starts in a hostile environment.
The defensive metrics look elite, but they have certainly benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses. Plus, the Utes won't have the services of star safety Cole Bishop in the first half. That could prove problematic for a pass defense that already ranks outside the top-100 in Explosiveness against a very explosive USC offense.
Plus, when the Utes have hit the highway, they've looked like a completely different team. They were dominated at Oregon State and really should've lost on the road against a bad Baylor team with a backup quarterback making his first career collegiate start.
Meanwhile, I expect USC to bounce back after an embarrassing loss at Notre Dame that really fell on the shoulders of quarterback Caleb Williams and an offense that turned the ball over five times. I'd expect a much sharper effort from the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
More importantly, the defense showed it can load the box to stop the run, holding the Irish to just 125 yards on 29 carries for an average of 4.3 yards per attempt.
Notre Dame, which has a much better quarterback and offense than Utah currently features, finished with only 251 total yards, so it was certainly a building block and encouraging sign for the much-maligned Trojan defense that can get absolutely gashed on the ground when they have to respect their opponent's aerial attack.
However, just like last week, that won't be the case against a Utah offense that remains one of only 14 teams in the country averaging under 5.0 yards per play. In comparison, the USC offense ranks third nationally at 7.8. There's a very good chance USC jumps out to an early lead against an undermanned Utes offense that simply can't keep up.
Notable Nugget
Following a loss, USC has gone 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) as a single-digit favorite against conference opponents since 2005, covering by over 10 points per game.
The Trojans are the most profitable team in the country in this spot over that period.
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Arizona State +28.5 at Washington
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a great situational spot for the Sun Devils, who come off a much-needed bye after dealing with as many injuries as any team in the country.
Plus, after a horrendous start to the season, they started playing much better in their previous three games with an easy cover against USC and a pair of field-goal losses against Colorado and California.
Meanwhile, Washington comes off one of its biggest wins in program history after beating Oregon in an absolute thriller that came right down to the wire.
There's obviously a bit of a letdown risk with the Huskies, who still have issues on defense and in the red zone with their high-powered offense that doesn't function as efficiently once the field shrinks.
Keep in mind the Ducks finished with a 541-415 total yards advantage in Seattle but simply couldn't convert on just one of their three fourth-down attempts that likely would've given them the victory.
It's also worth noting that Michael Penix Jr. got banged up toward the end of that game. I'm assuming he'll still play as the Heisman frontrunner, but head coach Kalen DeBoer might pull him a little sooner than usual in the second half with a big lead.
That would leave the backdoor wide open if necessary for an Arizona State team that's overdue to get a bounce or two to go its way.
On the season, the Sun Devils rank dead last in turnover margin, bottom-10 in opponent fourth-down conversion rate and have been one of the unluckiest teams in terms of field position.
Lastly, from a matchup perspective, the strength of this Arizona State defense lies in the secondary. That's ideal against Washington's high-powered aerial assault.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Arizona State has gone 20-8-2 ATS (71.4%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by over a touchdown per game. That includes a 2-0 mark this season in games against USC and California.
Only South Florida and Tulsa have turned a better profit for bettors in that role over that span.
