We begin a loaded NCAAF Week 4 slate with predictions and four noon spots, including Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma, Florida State vs. Clemson and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 9-5-0 +3.38 units (64.3%)
- Overall: 54-25-1 +26.20 units (68.3%)
Stuckey's 4 Noon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Cincinnati +15 |
  | 12 p.m. | Vanderbilt +14 |
  | 12 p.m. | Clemson +2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas A&M -7.5 |
Cincinnati +15 at Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Cincinnati will make its Big 12 debut on Saturday in Nippert Stadium against Oklahoma as a home underdog of more than two touchdowns for the first time since 2005 against Louisville.
I think this sets up as a perfect buy-low opportunity on the Bearcats after their loss in overtime to in-state rival Miami (OH) last Saturday night. We should get their best effort here in front of a raucous crowd.
Additionally, I don't mind selling high on the Sooners, who I believe have an inflated market rating after blowing out two doormats in Arkansas State and Tulsa (with a backup quarterback) in addition to a fraudulent cover against SMU. The Mustangs trailed only 14-11 midway through the fourth quarter and actually outgained OU, 367-365.
I do believe the Sooners have improved significantly from last year's 6-7 campaign that included five one-possession losses, but I'm not ready to crown them as being back to their elite ways just yet.
The Cincy defense will provide the toughest test to date for Dillon Gabriel and company, while this will mark the first hostile environment Oklahoma will play in this season after enjoying the majority of fan support in Tulsa.
While I did downgrade the Bearcats after their defeat last week, they did outgain Miami (OH), 538-358, even with quarterback Emory Jones missing a wide-open 70-yard touchdown before throwing an interception on the very next play.
The hard luck didn't stop there, as they also went just 1-for-3 on fourth down and scored only nine total points on their final six trips inside the red zone thanks in large part to a blocked game-winning field goal attempt and a game-sealing interception in overtime.
The offense seems to be firing on all cylinders earlier in the season with Jones looking like a perfect fit for Scott Satterfield's offense, as we saw in a pair of dominant victories over EKU and Pitt to start the season.
I'm a bit worried about Cincinnati containing Oklahoma's explosive passing plays. However, the Sooners still have questions along the offensive line that the Bearcat defensive front can potentially exploit, while Cincinnati's rush-heavy offense should contain the flow and tempo of the game.
Lastly, Cincy has one of the better punters in the nation in Mason Fletcher, who can be weaponized to flip the field at any moment.
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, since 2005, teams that have started 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), as Oklahoma has, have gone just 45-67-2 ATS (40.2%) as a favorite in their fourth game, failing to cover by almost a field goal per game. That includes a 23-38-3 (37.7%) mark as chalk of 14 or more points.
Vanderbilt +14 vs. Kentucky
12 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
This is a pure hold-your-nose buy-low spot on the Dores after they lost on the road as a favorite at UNLV.
Vanderbilt's defense has major issues and the roster has some key injuries worth monitoring, but I couldn't pass up taking two touchdowns against a Kentucky offense still working out some kinks despite playing a laugher of a schedule to start the season with three home games against Ball State, Akron and Eastern Kentucky.
This also isn't an ideal situational spot for Kentucky, which might get caught napping early in this sleepy noon kick time slot with games against Florida and Georgia on deck. That would continue a theme we've seen early in the season with the offense failing to find any rhythm in the first half in each of their first three contests vs. inferior competition.
Quarterback Devin Leary has been working through a mechanical issue, while the receivers have had far too many drops. Plus, the Cats likely won't have the services of their best offensive lineman once again, as team captain Kenneth Horsey likely won't return until next week against Florida at the earliest.
And while you can almost always count on a Brad White defense, we haven't seen this Wildcats team get tested yet — or play on the road — after losing some key pieces from last season's stop unit.
Vanderbilt won't be able to run the ball here, but it can't do that against anybody. However, it does have an outstanding wide receiver duo and a competent enough quarterback in AJ Swann, who actually leads all SEC quarterbacks in passing yards heading into this weekend. He's also reportedly at full health after getting banged up last week.
As a result, the Commodores should have enough offense to keep this within two possessions and/or sneak in the back door late if necessary since Kentucky will likely get super conservative with a sizable second-half lead with a brutal stretch of SEC games on the horizon.
Lastly, to continue the punter theme from Cincinnati, Vanderbilt also has one of the better punters in the country. I feel like my card might be doomed if I have to bring up one more punter of a team I'm betting on Saturday.
Notable Nugget
Mark Stoops has only closed as a favorite of 14-plus in SEC play four times with each of those instances coming against Vanderbilt. He's failed to cover by over 11 points per game. The Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS in those contests, including an outright loss as 17-point home favorites last season.
Clemson +2.5 vs. Florida State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I was lower than most coming into the season on Clemson, as Dabo is falling behind the cream of the crop due to his refusal to utilize the transfer portal.
However, the more I broke this matchup down, the more I started to like Clemson, which I would have expected to be a 2.5- to 3-point favorite before the season.
Well, we have learned about both clubs with three games under their respective belts. However, has that much really changed to warrant this much of a move? Granted, it's still under a field goal for now, which makes it less meaningful than if it got to 3.
What if Clemson didn't completely botch every goal-line opportunity against Duke? What if LSU didn't do the same early against Florida State in a game the Tigers led at the half? The market perception would be completely different.
Instead, everybody remembers those two Week 1 prime-time results and is simply writing off Florida State's near-loss at Boston College — a team that should've lost at home to Holy Cross and Northern Illinois.
Also, it was Clemson (not Florida State) that was implementing a brand new offense on the road against a great defensive coach in Week 1 after hiring new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley — a move everybody, including myself, applauded Swinney for.
That offense has finally started to look how we expected with more downfield shots over the past two weeks, albeit against weaker competition.
I've also upgraded Duke a bunch. The Blue Devils are legit, so that loss doesn't look anywhere close to as bad as it may have at the time.
This is just such a classic buy spot on Clemson against a Florida State team that might not be as invincible as some may believe. The defense still has a few questions it needs to answer, especially after last week.
I'm waiting to see if a +3 pops. If not, may still take some +2.5 smaller and/or get some moneyline exposure while also looking for a live betting opportunity
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Dabo Swinney is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) as an underdog against ranked opponents, covering by an average margin of over six points per game. He has won nine of those 15 games as a pup straight up.
Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Auburn
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
In my opinion, Auburn is getting too much love for its 3-0 start against UMass, Samford and Cal.
The first two are fairly meaningless results against cupcakes, but Cal actually outgained Auburn, 273-230, in a game the Tigers needed a fourth-quarter touchdown drive (that included a third-and-17 conversion) to pull out a 14-10 victory.
I loved the Hugh Freeze hire, but it's going to take him time to get this thing fully turned around.
Meanwhile, I think many are still just remembering the Texas A&M loss at Miami. That's natural when there are so few marquee matchup results early in the season, but that's a game against a Hurricanes team that I believe is very real.
From a situational spot perspective, you better believe Texas A&M has had this game circled since last season. During its embarrassing 5-7 campaign, the low point came toward the end of the season when A&M suffered its seventh and final loss of 2022 at Auburn.
The Aggies limped into that game shorthanded and demoralized from a disappointing year and left even more dejected after losing 13-10 in a game where Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford finished 6-of-13 passing for a meager 60 yards and two interceptions.
So, how did Auburn win? It ran the ball 55 times for 270 yards. Texas A&M then had to watch Cadillac Williams and the fans in Jordan Hare celebrate like they just won a national title.
I'm sure that taste is still in their mouths. They must be foaming at the mouth for a shot at revenge in their own house this time.
Additionally, from a matchup perspective, Auburn still can't throw the ball, which is how Miami came out victorious against the Aggies.
Texas A&M has seemingly fixed its run defense issues based on all of the top-10 national rankings in the underlying metrics. The struggles in that department last season were truly mind-boggling when you consider all of the talent it had up front. I'm not sure how Auburn will really move the ball with any consistency.
Meanwhile, A&M also has a more potent offense with a much more modern scheme under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
Jimbo has let me down before as a favorite, but this looks like a prime spot to back the Aggies, who should be out for blood.
Notable Nugget
At Texas A&M, Fisher owns a stellar 14-6 ATS record (70%) when favored by more than a touchdown at home.
