We begin the NCAAF Week 8 slate with picks, predictions and three noon betting spots, featuring Air Force vs. Navy, UCF vs. Oklahoma and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 27-22-0 +2.68 units (55.1%)
- Overall: 72-42-1 +26.60 units (63.2%)
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Stuckey's 3 Noon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | UCF +18.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Navy +11.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Indiana +5.5 |
UCF +18.5 at Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
After three straight losses, including a 29-point blowout defeat in its most recent game at Kansas, I believe we have hit the bottom of the market on UCF, which really could have benefited from a complete reset during a much-needed bye week.
That Kansas loss also may have been a residual effect of an absolute meltdown of epic proportions against Baylor in the game prior.
Plus, the Knights haven't had starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee for those three losses outside of one quarter before being pulled due to his knee still bothering him. His running ability is paramount to this offense, and it appears he's now close to 100% based on his comments earlier this week.
Plus, even with the injury to Plumlee, UCF still ranks 15th nationally in net yards per play — one spot ahead of Oklahoma. And just a few weeks back, the Knights closed as less than a touchdown favorite at Kansas State with Plumlee.
This is too big of a correction, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, the bye might not have come at the right time for an Oklahoma team that had all of the momentum on its side after beating Texas to stay undefeated on the season.
However, in that game against the Longhorns, the Sooners — who allowed over 500 yards of total offense — benefited from a 3-0 turnover margin, a goal-line stand and some horrid clock management by Steve Sarkisian that allowed the last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.
They easily could have lost that game. They also had some struggles against SMU and Cincinnati in games that were much closer than the final score indicated.
Oklahoma also leads the nation in turnover margin and has been quite fortunate in scoring opportunities on both sides of the ball. Sure, some of that has to do with the Sooners having a very good team, but a few advanced metrics suggest some looming regression that could work against them in the near future.
UCF should also have a close to 100% Plumlee, who should have success with his legs against an Oklahoma team that hasn't seen a true mobile quarterback yet this season.
The Sooners will also have to make do on offense without leading receiver Andrel Anthony, who is now out for the season with an injury. They may really miss his presence on the outside since it's not a position with a ton of reliable depth.
Finally, there's also a ton of familiarity between these two staffs, which I think generally works in the underdog's favor.
Notable Nugget
Gus Malzahn is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 10 or more days to prepare for an opponent, covering by an average of 9.5 points per game.
That makes him the seventh most profitable coach in our Action Labs database in this spot among 450 coaches since 2005.
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Navy +11.5 vs. Air Force
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Last year, Navy lost at Air Force, 13-10, as 14-point underdogs, which shouldn't surprise anybody who follows service academies closely.
They simply know how to ugly up a game with limited possessions, especially when they face each other, which makes it very difficult for favorites to cover bigger numbers in games that usually have super low totals, as we have with this matchup in Annapolis on Saturday.
The advantage that service academies have had in the past is they run a unique offensive scheme — the triple option — that opposing defenses aren't used to facing. That lack of familiarity makes up for a talent gap that Army, Navy and Air Force have.
Well, that's not the case when they go head-to-head since they get to practice against the triple option every day in practice.
Both teams come into this game with major quarterback questions, as Air Force starting quarterback Zac Larrier was seen in a brace after leaving the last game with an injury.
Larrier has been nothing short of spectacular this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry in conjunction with four passing touchdowns to no interceptions with a sparkling 71.4% completion percentage.
If he can't go, Jensen Jones would likely get the nod under center with one career pass attempt. As a result, the already run-heavy Falcons — who lead the nation in rush rate — would have to almost go exclusively to the triple option, abandoning the explosive passing game that has worked so well this season.
That's good news for a Navy defense that has one of the worst secondaries in the country.
Last week, against another team that can't throw the ball in Charlotte, the Midshipmen pitched a shutout, which they also did against pass-averse Wagner. That's a good sign heading into this matchup.
Meanwhile, Navy also has questions at the quarterback position.
After losing Blake Horvath to injury, veteran Tai Lavatai went down with an injury last weekend. As a result, Navy turned to freshman Braxton Woodson, who could get the start again — although the more experienced Xavier Arline could also get time under center if Navy wants to go with an exclusive triple-option attack after mixing in a bit more passing this season under new head coach Brian Newberry.
Yes, Air Force has started out 6-0, but the Falcons have faced one of the nation's easiest schedules so far with wins over Robert Morris, Sam Houston, Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming. Only one of those teams currently sports a winning record, and all six have struggled to defend the run.
Service academy matchups always have limited possession due to a speeding clock throughout. That will be even more amplified in the first service academy matchup under the new clock rules, which will make it extremely difficult for Air Force to win by a substantial margin.
It could simply take a fumbled pitch or failed fourth down after an Air Force drive that eats up most of a quarter for Navy to stay within this number.
Lastly, don't sleep on Navy punter Riley Riethman, who's putting together a very solid campaign so far in 2023. In a game where field position will be uber-important, Navy holds the edge in the punting department, which could make all of the difference.
Notable Nugget
Service academies are 87-70-5 ATS (55.4%) when catching more than a touchdown since 2005.
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Indiana +5.5 vs. Rutgers
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Indiana let me down last week, but it was simply overmatched by Michigan in the Big House after a nice start following the bye week that saw the Hoosiers make a change at offensive coordinator.
You're just not going to win on the road with an extreme talent discrepancy with four turnovers and special teams blunders that led to five short fields for Michigan.
However, this week, Indiana will get to play at home against a team much closer to its own weight class in Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights have darted out to a 5-2 start, but the schedule has certainly been beneficial with wins coming against Wagner, Temple, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and most recently Michigan State in a game Rutgers needed two Sparty special teams mistakes to overcome a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit.
Overall, it's had a strength of schedule that I have ranked below the national average, while the Hoosiers have played one of the country's toughest schedules with contests against Michigan, Louisville, Ohio State and Maryland already behind them.
This looks like a prime spot to fade a Rutgers team that has benefited from an easy schedule and will be playing its eighth straight game prior to its bye week.
Meanwhile, Indiana recently had its bye week and can tweak some things it tried out under a new offensive staff in a game it really needs to keep any real hopes of bowl eligibility alive.
Plus, this is still a horrendous Rutgers offense that will need to win by margin on the road in conference, which I'm more than fine making it prove it can do in a game with a sub-40 total where points will come at a premium.
Lastly, the Hoosiers have also had horrid fumble luck, so maybe a bounce or two will eventually go their way.
This is sitting in a dead zone, so I haven't bet it yet, as I'm waiting to see if it goes up to +6 or higher first.
Notable Nugget
Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, this will mark the first time Rutgers is a road favorite of more than a field goal in league play.
