Miami (Ohio) vs. North Texas Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -131 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +110 |
North Texas and Miami (Ohio) meet on Thursday afternoon for the Frisco Football Classic.
North Texas' season appeared to be doomed after starting the season 1-6, with that one win coming on the first weekend of the season over FCS Northwestern State. However, the Mean Green rattled off five straight wins to end the season, including a 45-23 upset of Conference USA champion UTSA.
The RedHawks, meanwhile, finished the regular season in heartbreaking fashion, losing a winner-take-all game against Kent State in overtime to decide who won the MAC East. Miami played much better down the stretch when starting quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury.
Let's break down which side will finish the season with a win on Thursday afternoon.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
RedHawks Offense
Miami may have struggled from a Success Rate perspective this season, but boy, is the offense explosive. The RedHawks rank ninth in the country in explosiveness because they average 6.1 yards per play.
Gabbert returned from injury for the Ball State game on Oct. 23, and in the final five games of the season with him under center, the RedHawks put up 6.8 yards per play as the quarterback averaged 9.4 yards per attempt.
Gabbert was one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC this season, helping the RedHawks rank ninth in EPA per pass. He especially thrives in getting the ball down the field, with a PFF passing grade over 89 on throws more than 10 yards downfield.
Gabbert should be able to beat a North Texas secondary that is very suspect.
Brett Gabbert lets it FLY for the Redhawks 🎯 pic.twitter.com/jU1vRCTpMr
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) November 17, 2021
The problem for Miami is it has really struggled to run the ball, averaging only 4.2 yards per carry and ranking 95th in Rushing Success Rate. Stopping the rush is the strength of North Texas' defense, which ranks ninth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
We might see Gabbert attempt 40-plus passes, which is nothing new to him, having done so twice in his last four games.
RedHawks Defense
Miami's defense has been built on creating turnovers this season. The RedHawks are 17th in the nation in Havoc and have put a ton of pressure on the opposing quarterback, as PFF has them graded as the 37th-best pass-rushing unit in college football.
North Texas has done a fantastic job of protecting the quarterback, but Miami will have to stop the run if it wants to slow down the Mean Green.
The RedHawks have been very average against the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and ranking 59th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. They also rank outside the top 80 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which is not good news against North Texas' run-heavy attack.
North Texas Mean Green
Mean Green Offense
The Mean Green offense plays very fast and runs the ball at an incredibly high rate. North Texas is seventh in the country in plays per minute and carries the rock 62.6% of the time, which is the 14th-most in college football.
North Texas thrives on the ground thanks to star running back DeAndre Torrey, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns this season. Torrey led the Mean Green to a top-30 ranking in Rushing Success Rate, and the offensive line put up similar numbers in Offensive Line Yards.
This run by @MeanGreenFB's Deandre Torrey is UNREAL! pic.twitter.com/AUjuYti9iT
— Stadium (@Stadium) November 27, 2021
Quarterback Austin Aune hasn't been called upon very much this season, and when he has been, it hasn't been pretty. He's averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt with a 67.0 PFF passing grade.
While Miami's secondary has been terrible this season, Aune likely won't be able to exploit it.
Mean Green Defense
North Texas put up some pretty impressive defensive numbers this season, ranking 15th in Success Rate Allowed. However, it was one of the worst teams in college football at preventing explosiveness, ranking 128th.
The Mean Green secondary had all sorts of issues this season, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt while ranking 123rd in explosive passing allowed and 106th in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF. That's a bad matchup against Gabbert and the Miami passing attack, which was 19th in passing explosiveness this season.
One of the main reasons North Texas gave up so many explosive plays is because it ranks 104th in tackling, per PFF. The Mean Green also really struggled to put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 122nd in the country in pass-rush grade.
Don't expect North Texas to exploit Miami's weakness on offense, which is its offensive line.
Miami (OH) vs. North Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and North Texas match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. North Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 37 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 121 | 122 |  |
| Big Play | 49 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
North Texas Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 100 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 112 | 25 | |
| Big Play | 88 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 44 | 104 |
| Coverage | 108 | 106 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 77 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 107 | 108 |
| Plays per Minute | 60 | 7 |
| Rush Rate | 50.6% (92) | 62.6% (14) |
Miami (OH) vs. North Texas Betting Pick
Given how susceptible North Texas is in the secondary, this one could get out of hand quickly if Gabbert throws the ball the way he has over the last five games.
I have the RedHawks projected as -6.1 favorites, so I like them at -2.5.
