Last week's spots finished 5-4 thanks to some easy winners and a few bad calls.
Losing Southern Miss on a late touchdown was a decent swing in the wrong direction, but I didn't feel like it was a great bet after watching despite a total yardage disparity of just six yards.
As always, last week was last week, so no sense in dwelling. We're onto the next.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, there will always be rough weeks in this gig and I won't avoid a 2-7 stinker Saturday forever, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
For Week 6, I have highlighted my five favorite betting spots, as I just didn't have as many spots circled as usual coming into this weekend. Let's kick things off with an afternoon kick before diving into four prime-time matchups.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, so I also included what number I'd play each to for your convenience.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 19-14-0 +3.48 units (57.6%)
- Overall: 64-34-1 +26.90 units (65.3%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas A&M +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Louisiana ML -132 |
  | 6 p.m. | Florida Atlantic -3.5 |
  | 6:30 p.m. | Arizona State +4.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Georgia Tech +21.5 |
  | 10 p.m. | California +9.5 |
Texas A&M +3 vs. Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Alabama has looked better in each of the past two weeks, but the Tide faced a shorthanded Ole Miss squad in a must-win game at home.
They then followed up that with a blowout victory over Mississippi State — a team I'm super down on compared to the market. Just look at what LSU did to the Bulldogs a few weeks back.
So, you could say I'm not ready to say everything is back to normal in T-Town with a team that still has some major question marks.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe does give Alabama its best chance, but he remains limited as a passer. That could spell doom against an A&M defense that has completely fixed the issues against the run from a season ago.
On the season, the Aggies rank 17th nationally in Rush Success Rate and yards per carry allowed (2.9) — giving up almost two full yards less than last year's mark of 4.8 (109th) — thanks to an uber-talented front seven that ranks in the top 15 nationally in Defensive Line Yards.
As a result, Texas A&M is shutting down opposing rushing attacks on early downs, forcing teams into known passing situations where it ranks third in FBS in Success Rate.
Similar to what we saw with Texas, A&M has the juice to cause major disruption up front against Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M has looked fantastic all season with a new much-needed modern offense coordinator in Bobby Petrino, who Jimbo Fisher brought in during the offseason.
The defense is also one of the most improved units in the country after an inexplicably down year in 2022 given all of the talent on the roster.
I don't see much of a drop-off at all between quarterbacks Connor Weigman (out for the year) and Max Johnson, who has shined in four games of action in 2023. I trust the A&M passing attack much more in this matchup, as it's the Aggies who have the rare talent edge over the Tide.
Ultimately, I the Aggies get this done by winning the trench battle on both ends and having the ability to sustain drives with more consistency against an Alabama team that has struggled in true road games in recent seasons, especially against quality competition.
Since 2019, the Tide have gone just 5-10 against the spread on the road, including 2-5 ATS against ranked opponents — all as favorites with an average spread of over 10 points — losing three of those seven outright. That doesn't even include a straight-up loss in their last trip to College Station in 2021 as 18.5-point chalk.
Notable Nugget
Nick Saban is just 7-13 ATS (35%) as a favorite of less than a touchdown against SEC foes.
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Louisiana ML -132 vs. Texas State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
We are going back to the well with a Texas State fade here, as I think the Bobcats have become overvalued in the market even after beating me with a late frontdoor touchdown last week in the final minutes after blowing a big lead.
That has been a theme for the Bobs, who have been marred by inconsistency with some head-scratching halves of football against bad competition. The consistency is just not there on a down-to-down basis, which will eventually burn them.
Meanwhile, I doubt they can keep up the scoring efficiency pace when they do put drives together. Plus, this is still a very bad defense that ULL can exploit.
The Bobs are still living a bit off of an opening-season victory over Baylor. Not only does that win look worse than it did at the time, but Texas State also had the benefit of surprising with a brand new staff, personnel and scheme similar to what we saw with Colorado in its opening week stunner over TCU.
Since then, Texas State has three wins over Southern Miss, Nevada and Jackson State. The Golden Eagles are broken, and Nevada might be the worst FBS team in the country. I still have to play this under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Louisiana is the most profitable team in the county after a loss since 2005.
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Florida Atlantic -3.5 vs. Tulsa
6 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Starting off with a completely irrelevant nugget, Tulsa finds itself in the midst of a three-game stretch against teams with an Owl mascot.
Well, I think is a good spot to buy low on the home Owls of Florida Atlantic, who will open up conference play at home in Boca Raton after a much-needed bye week.
After opening up with a win over FCS Monmouth, FAU had one of the hardest nonconference stretches of any Group of Five team this season against Ohio, Clemson and Illinois. It went 0-3 in those games, but two of those defeats came by one possession.
The bye came at an ideal time for FAU, which had to make a quarterback change after losing Casey Thompson to injury against Clemson.
The more-than-capable Central Michigan quarterback transfer Daniel Richardson, who threw for 24 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2021, has since taken over.
I'm sure Richardson and the offense will significantly benefit from the two weeks they have to prepare for this matchup against a pass defense that PFF has ranked as the seventh-worst coverage unit in the country.
Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Tulsa had to turn to one after losing incumbent starter Braylon Braxton to injury in its season opener. He could return this week after going through pregame warmups last week, so there could certainly be some early rust.
Regardless, I'm not interested in buying any Tulsa stock after back-to-back wins over two bad teams in Temple and Northern Illinois.
FAU also has some looming positive late-down and Finishing Drives regression, which tend to have much more variance over small sample sizes. Conversely, the opposite holds true for Tulsa, which ranks in the top 30 nationally in third- and fourth-down conversion rate, while FAU ranks in the bottom 30 in both despite having more success on early downs against a harder schedule.
The Golden Hurricanes also have miserable special teams, which could make all the difference on the road in league play with a shorter spread.
Notable Nugget
As an underdog or favorite of six or fewer points, FAU head coach Tom Herman has gone 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) in his head-coaching career, covering by over five points per game.
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Arizona State +4.5 vs. Colorado
6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
To start the season, Colorado has had five games with mass hype leading up to each with the past two coming against Oregon and USC. How much do the Buffaloes have left in the tank? They may be running on empty, especially with a team void of depth.
There's a high probability Colorado comes out completely flat here for a game in Tempe on the Pac-12 Network against Arizona State. Even without depth concerns — Travis Hunter remains out, for what it's worth — it's still a tall order for kids to get up week after week like Deion Sanders has done to start his tenure in Boulder.
Plus, Colorado also profiles as a horrible favorite since it can't run the ball or play defense. From a matchup perspective, that could also help the Sun Devils, who have graded out very well against the pass, ranking in the top 20 nationally in EPA per Dropback.
That's massive against a Colorado offense that has been completely reliant on the superb Shedeur Sanders creating explosive plays on known passing downs. Well, that might not be as easy against a Sun Devil defense that ranks fifth in the country in Passing Down Explosiveness, trailing only Michigan, California, Ohio State and Georgia.
They have struggled immensely to contain opposing ground games, but that isn't much of a concern against a Colorado rushing attack that has the seventh-lowest yards-per-carry mark in FBS at 2.6.
Additionally, even after back-to-back covers, Arizona State still has some lingering market value after some early season abysmal performances, including a 38-0 loss to Fresno State in its first home shutout loss since 1988.
In that game, the Sun Devils had eight turnovers and had to use a number of quarterbacks due to a plethora of injuries under center and along the offensive line, which plagued Kenny Dillingham's squad throughout September.
They've also been one of the unluckiest teams in the country in terms of field position, ranking dead last in net field position, which hasn't helped matters.
Well, ASU has rebounded nicely with two competitive losses against USC and Cal with quarterback Trenton Bourguet — its best option, it appears — looking more than adequate throwing downfield during last week's 344-yard performance against the Golden Bears. He should have no issues moving the ball down the field against this putrid Colorado defense.
For a team that isn't eligible for the postseason, these games serve as their Super Bowls, as we saw against the Trojans. I expect a spirited effort from the Sun Devils with a decent defensive matchup against a potentially fatigued Colorado bunch.
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, Arizona State is 46-31-2 ATS (59.7%) in home conference games since 2005. Over that span, only Kansas State and Wake Forest have turned a bigger profit in that role.
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Georgia Tech +21 at Miami
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This is the hold-your-nose special with a Georgia Tech team that somehow lost at home as a three-touchdown favorite last Saturday to lowly Bowling Green.
After that embarrassing loss, I expect a spirited effort from the Yellow Jackets, especially since I really like this coaching staff.
And it's not like that was the first humiliating loss GT has suffered at home in recent seasons, having lost to The Citadel and Northern Illinois as 26- and 21-point favorites, respectively.
In 2021, we saw the Yellow Jackets rebound nicely after that shameful loss to NIU with three straight covers, including a near shocker at Clemson followed by an upset win over ranked North Carolina in Atlanta.
The defense has undoubtedly been atrocious across the board, which will be problematic against a Miami offense that has been rolling from the get-go to start 2023.
I assume the Hurricanes will score their fair of share points without much resistance, but maybe Georgia Tech can provide just a bit of resistance if it has any pride after getting throttled by Bowling Green. Hopefully, a change at defensive coordinator after that debacle also leads to some positive personnel and schematic tweaks.
However, the Ramblin' Wreck are more than capable of putting up enough points to keep this within three touchdowns or get in the backdoor if needed late.
For all of the problems in 2023, the Georgia Tech offense has at least been humming under new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and Texas A&M transfer quarterback Haynes King.
Miami should get All-American safety Kamren Kinchens back from injury, but Georgia Tech could also benefit from the return of its right tackle and star wide receiver Chase Lane.
This is still a Tech team that dismantled Wake Forest on the road and could've easily beat Louisville to start the season. It even played Ole Miss extremely tight on the road despite some key special teams blunders before the Rebels added on a few scores late in the fourth quarter in a game I thought could go either way at one point in the second half.
It's possible Georgia Tech simply got caught looking ahead to Miami after starting off 1-0 in ACC play, which would explain some of the sloppy mistakes. Regardless, this looks like a classic buy-low spot in a matchup I show value in from a pure projections standpoint.
It's also possible this is the very peak of the market on Miami, which has looked like a different team in 2023 to date. The Hurricanes do benefit from coming off of a bye but may get caught looking ahead to Clemson and North Carolina on deck, especially after seeing Georgia Tech suffer that embarrassing loss last week.
The Yellow Jackets have nearly pulled off upsets in each of their past three trips to Miami Gardens. While it's hard to see an outright chance with how well Miami is playing, I just can't pass up this number.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Miami has gone just 8-19-1 ATS (29.6%) as a home favorite of 19-plus points. Only Georgia has been less profitable to bettors in that role over that time period.
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California +9.5 vs. Oregon State
10 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
I think this is a good spot to fade the Beavers in a potentially sleepy spot at Cal after back-to-back games against ranked foes with UCLA on deck.
Yes, the Beavers took care of business against the Utes, but they've been dominant at home in recent seasons. Plus, I think that result said more about the anemic Utah offense without Cam Rising and a host of other key injuries.
Cal has also thrived as a larger underdog under Justin Wilcox, whose squads know how to ugly up a game with the best of 'em. The Bears will limit explosive plays and just turn games like this into a complete grinder.
Plus, from a matchup perspective, the Cal defense has thrived against the run, ranking in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Rush. That's critical against Oregon State since the ground game serves as the foundation of everything it wants to do offensively, especially since DJU hasn't impressed me when forced to drop back and throw.
Meanwhile, Cal also could see quarterback Ben Finley return from injury. He would provide a boost to the downfield passing game, which is how teams must attack a Beavers team that lost a number of key pieces on the back end from last year's depth chart.
Additionally, Cal has been very unlucky when it comes to allowing teams to finish drives with points, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in Points Per Opportunity. Conversely, Oregon State ranks in the top 10 in that category.
Based on the personnel, I'd expect a correction on both fronts, which could lead to some positive scoring regression for the Bears in this particular matchup.
Keep in mind Cal should've had an easy cover against Washington if not for allowing a pair of nonoffensive touchdowns before the Huskies gained a yard. It also should've beaten Auburn if not for a miraculous late third-and-17 conversion by the Tigers, who averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in that contest.
These Bears are much feistier than last season's squad, which still found a way to lose by only one possession against Notre Dame, Washington, USC and UCLA.
I think another close loss is in the cards here for a team I still think has a bit of value — especially in the underdog role — against an Oregon State team that could be a bit disinterested out of the gates.
I'm waiting on a +10 to potentially pop but will still bet it if it doesn't move to +8.5.
Notable Nugget
Justin Wilcox is 21-7 ATS (75%) as an underdog of more than four points, including 10-1 against the number at home.
