Northwestern vs Nebraska Picks, Prediction: Can Cornhuskers Cover?

Big Ten rivals collide this Saturday as the Northwestern Wildcats and Nebraska Corn Huskers square off in Lincoln. Nebraska owns the slight edge over Northwestern in matchup history, but the Wildcats are seeking their second straight win against the Huskers.

The Wildcats just snuck past the Howard Bisons last week, winning 23-20. Overall, it’s been an up-and-down season for them, as they’ve hardly been able to gain any momentum either way. A win today would secure Northwestern’s first streak of any kind this season.

Nebraska fans are celebrating 100 years at Memorial Stadium, so perhaps there will be some juice in Lincoln. This Huskers team has been somewhat underwhelming in the short Matt Rhule era. However, they’ve won three out of their last four, including a win last week against Illinois.

We have no idea who’s going to start under center for the Wildcats. Sixth-year quarterback Ben Bryant missed last week's game against Howard, and his status is still unknown. However, keeping him on the pine may be the right move for them.

Junior Brendan Sullivan stepped in last week, and certainly thrived. He completed 72% of his passes, threw for two touchdowns, and rushed in his own touchdown.

With Bryant starting, this team hasn’t responded well. Northwestern’s passing Success Rate places 103rd in the nation and 115th in PPA. To go with that, Bryant has only completed less than 60% of his passes.

Bryce Kirtz and Cam Johnson have been the top targets through the air, but don’t overlook running back Joseph Himon II. Himon has made the most of his opportunities when the ball is thrown his way.

Northwestern likes to run the ball anyway, and run it a lot. There’s nothing flashy about this run game, it’s just efficient. Cam Porter gets a ton of volume, and while he only rushes for four yards per carry, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian likes to get creative. Receiver AJ Henning is a threat on the ground, averaging a little over six yards per carry.

Usually bad defensive teams do at least one thing well. This, however, doesn’t seem to be the case for Northwestern, who allows 28.8 points per game and is ranked 131st in Havoc allowed.

Against the run, the Wildcats are ranked 75th in Success Rate and 77th in explosive plays allowed.

Linebacker Xander Mueller is the one to look out for on this defense. He leads the team in both sacks and tackles-for-loss.

What I will give credit on, is they do a decent job at preventing big plays through the air. They may get beat a lot (113th in passing play Success Rate), but they won’t allow opposing teams beat them for the big play.

Nebraska’s start to the year was a disaster, as Jeff Sims was not the answer at quarterback. In turn, Heinrich Haarberg stepped in and has done just swimmingly.

While his efficiency hasn’t been all there (only completing 52% of his passes), the Huskers have won when he’s taken the majority of the snaps. He hasn’t thrown for a touchdown though in two games, so he’ll look to break that streak.

Haarberg has a myriad of options at his disposal. Billy Kemp, Marcus Washington, and Thomas Fidone are the three main targets bringing in the most volume. Washington is the big play maker though, which has helped this passing play offense rank 14th in explosiveness.

The problem is, that explosiveness can also be a detriment since they try for the big play so much. That’s probably why they rank 114th in Success Rate.

Regardless, this is a running team first and foremost, and Haarberg leads the charge. He averages 5.1 yards per carry on the ground.

Anthony Grant is a fine running back, who averages 4.4 yards per carry. He’s also found the endzone three times. The problem is, he’s a pretty one dimensional back, and he doesn’t make much of an impact as a pass catcher. It’s a shame that Gabe Ervin has been out, as he’s probably the more dynamic of the two.

Rhule has improved this team’s defense, though. Nebraska stands as one of the premier run stopping defenses in college football with a 26th ranked Success Rate, and 13th in explosiveness allowed.

However, stopping the pass has been a struggle for the Huskers. Even though they’re 46th in PPA, they’re 81st in passing play Success Rate, and 104th in passing downs.

Anytime the Huskers take the field, a low scoring game is highly possible. They rank 32nd in points allowed per game (21), and maybe would be higher had Michigan not walloped them two weeks ago.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Nebraska match up statistically:

Northwestern Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	32	25
Line Yards	125	74
Pass Success	104	46
Havoc	96	78
Finishing Drives	20	60
Quality Drives	111	61

Nebraska Offense vs. Northwestern Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	51	75
Line Yards	51	65
Pass Success	116	103
Havoc	112	125
Finishing Drives	78	119
Quality Drives	94	94

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	75	31
PFF Coverage	119	56
Special Teams SP+	33	118
Middle 8	63	102
Seconds per Play	24.3 (18)	30.1 (120)
Rush Rate	49.6% (108)	64.5% (11)

Since the start of the season, Nebraska has improved every step of the way. The transition from Sims to Haarberg has paid off immensely.

Northwestern, on the other hand, has a problem on its hands. It seems like the team has reacted better to Sullivan as the QB than Bryant, but the defense is still a disaster.

On top of that, the inconsistency has been the story of the season. Based on how this year has gone so far, history tells us that the Wildcats are due for a loss today – and it may just happen.

FanDuel has the spread at 11.5 and I think that’s a respectable number. Every game but one, the point differential for Nebraska was more than 11.5.

I also think the Huskers are just much better than the Wildcats. Northwestern is just very blah to me, and every time facing a team that’s better than them, they’ve lost by more than 11.5.

While Nebraska is on the come up, Northwestern still has a lot to figure out. I’m backing the Huskers here to cover, and would play it up to -14.5.