It's the first Saturday without football. And that means one thing: It's time for college basketball to finally take center stage.
So, dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's six top picks for Saturday, January 27.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:30 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas vs. Iowa State
Yes, I'm well aware of “Hilton Magic” and just how difficult it is to face the Cyclones in Ames.
I’m also aware of Bill Self’s track record as an underdog.
It typically only happens a handful of times a year, but Kansas’ record against the spread over the last decade as a ‘dog is well above .500.
The Cyclones are once again elite defensively, as they have been since T.J. Otzelberger took the job in 2021.
That being said, ISU hasn't faced a big man like Hunter Dickinson this year, and I like the matchup for the big fella against the Cyclones’ frontcourt.
Kevin McCullar Jr. continues to play at an All-American level on both sides of the floor, and he should be able to get to the foul line quite a bit against an aggressive Iowa State perimeter.
Ultimately, I expect this game to be a highly contested one that comes right down to the final minutes.
I’ll continue to look to back Self and Kansas in those kinds of battles, especially when the Jayhawks are getting a few points.
Rock Chalk.
Pick: Kansas +3.5 (Play to +3)
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Two Big 12 teams swirling to the bottom of the standings — Oklahoma State and West Virginia — face off on Saturday.
The Pokes have lost six straight, all to quality teams with postseason expectations. Through 19 games this year, Oklahoma State has covered just five, as head coach Mike Boynton Jr. deals with injuries and consistent issues with ball security.
If the Pokes are going to break their losing streak, Saturday’s matchup is a good opportunity against a team that hasn't won on the road this season.
West Virginia knocked off both Texas and Kansas in Morgantown over the past two weeks. Head coach Josh Eilert has played the 27th-ranked strength of schedule and has used one of the highest numbers of bench minutes in all of Division I.
The Mountaineers' forte has been getting to the free-throw line, hitting 73.4% in conference play. Both West Virginia and Oklahoma State are the two of the best at getting to the free-throw line in the Big 12, but the Pokes have one of the worst shooting numbers in the nation from the charity stripe (66.7%).
Expect the Mountaineers to show up on the road early in the game. On the season, West Virginia is 11-6 against the spread in the first half compared to 7-12 in full games.
Oklahoma State has had as many issues in the first half as the full game, posting a 5-10 mark against the number through the first 20 minutes of games this season.
Look for West Virginia to stay hot in the opening period, covering an underdog number against an Oklahoma State team that’s on a six-game losing streak.
Pick: West Virginia 1H +2.5 (Play to +2)
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Villanova vs. Butler
Butler -114
By D.J. James
Villanova is in a tough place after dropping the last three games against Marquette, UConn and St. John’s.
As much as Butler would seem like a win, the road has been a tough task for power conference teams, and it should remain so in this matchup.
For one, Butler should be able to win the 3-point battle between these two. The Bulldogs are hitting around 35% from downtown, while the Wildcats hit at less than a 33% clip.
Yes, Villanova shoots far more deep shots than the Bulldogs, but the Wildcats are worse on defense from deep. Butler also ranks 55th in Defensive Open-3 Rate, while the Wildcats rank 290th on offense.
Butler usually doesn’t own a free-throw advantage over opponents, but again, being at home comes with its perks. Since the Bulldogs foul less often than Villanova and both teams shoot well from the free-throw line, this could be another edge for Butler, especially in the final minutes of the game.
Butler usually has issues with rebounding, while Villanova can rebound on the defensive end. If anything, this just means that the Bulldogs need to make their first shot each trip, since putback points may be limited. With that being the case, it shouldn’t be as large of an ask, since Butler is a better shooting team anyway.
Finally, both have a comparable mark in points per possession at the rim, per ShotQuality, so that should be another Butler edge since the ‘Dogs shoot more 2-pointers in the aggregate.
Take Butler to -2.
Pick: Butler -114 (Play to -2)
Butler -114
The Butler Bulldogs (13-7, 4-5) will look to turn a two-game win streak into three as they host the Villanova Wildcats (11-8, 4-4) on Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
The Bulldogs have been a force at home this season, winning nine of 11 games on their home court this season. The success in their own building can be traced to head coach Thad Matta, who boasts a home record of 32-9 while at the helm of the program.
Butler will look to lean on its offense to be the differentiator in this game, and it should be able to do enough to outscore the visiting Wildcats with a combination of 3-point shooting and tempo.
The Bulldogs' offense is the more efficient of the two units, ranking 45th in the nation with an average of 115.9 points per 100 possessions.
They're the better 3-point shooting team, connecting on 34.9% of attempts, which outpaces Villanova’s season average of 32.6%. The Bulldogs lead the Big East in 3-point shooting percentage, which is a marked improvement from their ninth-place finish last season.
In addition to being better from beyond the arc, Butler plays at a higher tempo than the sluggish Wildcats, with an average of 68.5 possessions per 40 minutes to 64.7 for Villanova.
In a game with such a short spread, I also like backing the more disciplined Bulldogs. They're very protective of the ball, ranking 29th nationally in turnover rate (14.6%) while committing only 30 turnovers in the last four games.
Speaking to the well-coached nature of the Matta-led Bulldogs, they rank seventh nationally in
in free-throw shooting at 78.8% and 13th nationally in fouls committed with just 13.7 per game.
My model is projecting Butler as a 3.1-point favorite, and given the current line of 0.5, I think it makes sense to back Butler on the moneyline in this game.
The Bulldogs are better defensively and should be able to use their tempo and discipline to outpace Villanova in the later stages of this game.
I recommend betting Butler moneyline at -120 or better. If the market moves and that number isn’t available, I’d recommend laying the chalk up to two points.
Pick: Butler -114 (Play to -2)
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TCU vs. Baylor
By John Feltman
Baylor lost a tough game last weekend at Texas, and it hasn't played since. With six days off, it’s time for the Bears to bounce back in a great spot at home.
Comparing these two rosters, it’s evident that the Bears have an overwhelming talent gap in the backcourt. They’re the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the nation, which will be too much for the Frogs’ strong perimeter defense to overcome.
The Frogs' defense is strong, but the team allows a lot of free-throw attempts. The Bears are mediocre from the foul line, but they should get plenty of chances to capitalize.
TCU is a decent offensive team, but its normal offensive edge on the outside won't exist in the contest. The Bears are excellent defensively against the triple.
Jamie Dixon is a hell of a coach, but his Frogs are in trouble. Back the Bears with confidence to bounce back at home.
Pick: Baylor -5.5 (Play to -7)
Vermont vs. Bryant
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I’m among the world’s biggest Vermont Catamount basketball fans.
Sadly, I’m fading them for the second monster conference game in a row, right as John Becker’s five-out squad is hitting its stride.
The Cats held off UMass Lowell on Thursday in the battle of unbeaten AmEast teams, putting Vermont back atop the America East again. It’s won 20 consecutive league games; why would it lose this one?
But that’s just it — Vermont is playing its second consecutive road game in less than 48 hours against the two next-best teams in the conference. It’s a nightmare situational spot.
Additionally, the Cats played an overtime period against Lowell less than 48 hours ago, and they barely scraped by the River Hawks after blowing a seven-point lead with less than a minute left.
Also, superstar big man Abdoul Karim Coulibaly was still injured (playing only nine minutes), essentially handing Vermont the victory.
Meanwhile, Bryant is playing banana-lands good basketball. The Bulldogs are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in league play, winning four of five by double-digits. They’ve been the most impressive, most dominant AmEast team in league play.
For what it’s worth, most projection systems I trust make Bryant a two-to-three point home favorite over Vermont, so maybe the Bulldogs really are the AmEast’s best team.
They’re still flashing potential in their quick-strike, aggressive, paint-touching offense — they’ve been surprisingly efficient in transition and lead the league in 2-point shooting — but their defense looks incomprehensibly better.
Bryant leads the AmEast in Defensive Efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2-point shooting allowed and block rate.
The head-coaching switch from Jared Grasso to Phil Martelli Jr. has made all the difference, as the Bulldogs are starting to play more aggressive man-to-man defense, leveraging their freak athleticism to swat every shot down low and run more shooters off the perimeter.
I always thought Bryant was a little fraudulent, but that mostly had to do with my problems with Grasso — a clown head coach who couldn’t make in-game adjustments and ran a passive, hole-filled zone — and its 3-point shooting luck on defense.
But Martelli is a legitimately good coach pushing the right buttons while extracting the absolute most from his roster. Also, the defense has thrived despite getting hit by negative 3-point shooting regression during league play.
This has the makings of an all-time classic with all the playmakers — Vermont’s Aaron Deloney, Matt Veretto and Ileri Ayo-Faleye matching up with Bryant’s Sherif Gross-Bullock, Earl Timberlake and Connor Withers is mouth-watering — and I actually don’t love the schematic matchup for Bryant.
But the situational spot is too much for Vermont to overcome.
I expect the new-look, up-and-coming Bulldogs to take advantage and put the America East on notice after years of underperforming their true talent level.
And they’ll get to do it in front of their surprisingly passionate fan base.
Pick: Bryant +1 (Play to PK)
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