Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Friday, June 14.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
Cardinals vs. Cubs
A sunny Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field?
Have to bet the Cubbies.
In all seriousness, Kyle Gibson is a fade candidate. His fastball velocity continues to drop (now under 92 mph on average), and his walks have skyrocketed (10%). He’s carrying a 3.76 ERA but only because of a slightly low BABIP (.271) and slightly high strand rate (74%), so his xERA is north of five.
It’s also worth mentioning Gibson has never pitched well against the Cubs, posting a career 6.64 ERA across 20 innings when battling the division rival.
Jordan Wicks is no dominant force on the mound, but he’s a capable starting pitcher with high whiff potential (33% chase rate, 28% whiff rate, 25% strikeout rate) behind a really good changeup (50% whiff, .198 expected wOBA allowed on the pitch).
He’s coming off a lengthy IL stint following a forearm strain, but he looked good in a three-inning relief appearance against the Reds last week – his velocity was up considerably in the outing.
| Game Date | Fastball Velocity | Sinker Velocity | Slider Velocity |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 93.3 | 91.9 | 82.5 |
| April 6 | 92.2 | 91.9 | 82.5 |
| April 12 | 92.4 | 91.1 | 82.5 |
| April 17 | 93.5 | 92.4 | 83.4 |
| April 23 | 92.3 | 92.6 | 82.0 |
| June 8 | 94.5 | 94.0 | 85.9 |
Of similar importance, the Cardinals have been trending up offensively but mainly against right-handed pitching. Over the past month, they’ve posted a 115 wRC+ against righties (sixth) but a 99 against lefties (15th). Across the past fortnight, they’ve slashed just .245/.274/.336 for a .610 OPS (28th) against southpaws.
The Cubs have trended down offensively after a red-hot April, but they’re still close to a league-average lineup against righties (103 wRC+ over the past two weeks). They’re also getting healthier, recently getting Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki back on the field.
Putting the Cardinals in their worst split gives the Cubbies a starting pitching and batter’s box advantage in this matchup.
The Cubs bullpen is a mess, while the Cardinals bullpen is vastly underrated. So, I’ll stick with backing Chicago in the first half.
Sean Zerillo said on today’s Payoff Pitch that he projects the Cubs F5 ML closer to -160, so we’re getting an uber-cheap price to fade a 36-year-old washed-up negative regression candidate with a dead arm.
Bets: Cubs F5 ML (-109, BetRivers) | Play to F5 ML (-145)
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Guardians vs. Blue Jays
I recently wrote a long piece about Kevin Gausman for Pitcher List, discussing his bizarre season.
Without pounding out another couple thousand words, here’s the long and the short of my findings.
On 0-2 counts, opposing hitters are slashing .303/.338/.455 with three homers. Gausman has seen his ERA (4.00) and xERA (5.14) balloon while his strikeout rate has dipped to the lowest level in six years (23%).
The issue is his fastball-splitter mix.
He’s lost velocity on his fastball, resulting in a career-low Stuff+ mark (99) on the pitch. He’s throwing middle-middle heaters way too often (35%, 94th percentile) and never at the top of the zone (27%, last in MLB) despite decent carry (16.6” iVB, 80th percentile). As a result, hitters are barreling 18% of ‘em.
Meanwhile, he’s continually lost vertical drop on his splitter, resulting in a career-low Stuff+ mark on the pitch (95).
The splitter plays off the fastball. With a lower velocity differential between the pieces, opposing hitters’ timing isn’t as thrown off. And with less drop, the pitch is easier to barrel.
Ultimately, Gausman's splitter has become a net-negative pitch. He's essentially throwing two below-average four-seamers.
Gausman’s splitter has been his primary two-strike pitch for years. He throws it half the time in two-strike counts. But its effectiveness is gone, so hitters are striking out less and making more contact.
Ultimately, Gausman’s two-strike approach has been rendered obsolete. Hence the drop in strikeouts and increase in earned run metrics.
For example, check out this two-strike splitter he threw to Austin Hays two starts ago:
I swear that pitch didn't drop an inch. A 2-2 meatball of epic proportions.
Much of Cleveland’s year-over-year offensive improvements are a result of changes to their home park, but the Guardians aren’t an inept lineup away from home. They boast a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 10th in MLB. They’re also red-hot, posting a 120 wRC+ against righties on the road over the past month.
Conversely, the Blue Jays are finally seeing some positive regression after months of underperforming, posting a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. They’re finally elevating the ball (37% ground-ball rate during the stretch), which has really helped Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (slashing .331/.412/.469 since May 5).
They’ll battle Logan Allen, Cleveland’s back-end rotation piece with expected run indicators in the mid-5.00s and a negative fWAR (-0.3). He’s among the worst stuff guys in the Majors (77 Stuff+ across his arsenal), relying heavily on a mediocre 91 mph four-seam that hitters are teeing off on (.600 slugging against), resulting in plenty of homers (18.2% HR/FB rate).
The Guardians have the league’s best bullpen, but I don’t trust Toronto’s, which has posted a 5.32 ERA over the past two weeks behind a 12% barrel rate. Closer Jordan Romero has imploded (six earned on three homers over his past three innings pitched), and the Jays now rank last in bullpen fWAR (-1.3) and FIP (5.00).
The Rogers Centre plays like a neutral park (98 Park Factor). But between the two starting pitchers, two ascending lineups, and Toronto's horrendous relief corps, I’m banking on fireworks in Toronto on Friday night.
As does BallParkPal’s model, which projects 9.2 runs for this one.
Bets: Over 8 (-112, DraftKings) | Play to 8.5 (-110)
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Padres vs Mets
Matt Waldron’s knuckleball is taking the world by storm.
He’s forcing loads of weak contact (32% hard-hit rate, 87th percentile), even if most of it is fly-ball contact (38% ground-ball rate). But that’s okay if you’re pitching in Flushing, which boasts MLB’s second-lowest Park Factor (91) – BallParkPal’s model projects a -8% Run Factor for Friday’s game.
All in all, Waldron pairs a 3.71 ERA with a 3.31 xERA. That’ll play against a Mets lineup that has posted a measly .644 OPS against righties over the past two weeks, primarily because they aren’t pulling the ball (40% pull rate), not hitting the ball hard (33% hard-hit rate), and not hitting the ball in the air (46% ground-ball rate).
These Padres ain’t half bad, but mainly because they produce against right-handed pitching. Among MLB lineups, they rank second in wRC+ against righties (124) but 18th against lefties (97). They’re a contact-based, disciplined-and-pesky lineup, but they don't hit the ball hard (38% pull rate, 36% hard-hit rate against southpaws over the past month).
So, although Sean Manaea is among my least favorite pitchers to back – primarily because he’s lost so much velocity on his fastball that he’s seen his strikeout minus walk rate plummet – I don’t project the Padres highly against league-average southpaws (e.g., Manaea, who boasts a 4.30 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 0.8 fWAR).
And if Manaea can hold the Pads at bay for five frames, the Mets' uber-talented relief corps will step in. While they’ve had their struggles recently, the unit still ranks 11th in bullpen fWAR (1.7), second in bullpen strikeout rate (28%), and sixth in bullpen xFIP (3.75). Reed Garrett has been the savior of that unit (3.21 ERA, 2.54 xERA, 0.6 fWAR), especially as Edwin Diaz has flailed – although the All-Star closer is due for plenty of positive regression (5.40 ERA, 2.69 xFIP).
The Padres bullpen is slumping, posting a 4.61 ERA over the past two weeks. But they’ve been a borderline top-10 unit on the year (ninth in bullpen fWAR, ninth in bullpen xFIP), so here’s to hoping Jhony Brito and Co. can piece together a few solid frames. The good news is that they’re all rested after an off day on Thursday.
BallParkPal projects only 7.3 runs for Friday’s game in Queens. Between Waldron, San Diego’s platoon splits, and Citi Field’s run environment, I agree.
Bets: Under 7.5 (-105, bet365) | Play to 7.5 (-110)
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Reds vs Brewers
Freddy Peralta was trending toward Cy Young candidacy, posting a 1.90 ERA behind a 35% strikeout rate across his first four starts.
But something has been off about him since.
He’s lost all command and control, walking 22 batters over his past 47 frames. He’s not a ground ball (38% rate) or weak contact guy (10% barrel rate), so allowing hard-hit balls with ducks on the pond can bring about disastrous results.
Things looked rather bleak in his last start against Detroit, where he walked five batters across three frames, eventually allowing four runners to score.
On the year, Fastball Freddy’s heater has been among the league’s best (127 Stuff+), checking in around 95 mph with 16 inches of ride (71st percentile). But against the Tigers, his heater velo dipped under 93 mph, and he produced closer to 14 inches of ride.
That’s very worrisome.
I’m not going to say that Hunter Greene is perfect. He’s an elite stuff guy (124 Stuff+) with questionable command (97 Location+, 10% walk rate) and a history of hard-hit balls (career 42% hard-hit rate). He’s walked 20 batters over his past 42 frames, recently allowing nine earned runs in two starts against the Cubs.
However, Greene is still an elite stuff guy with a tremendous fastball. And he’s beginning to improve his batted-ball profile (5% barrel rate, 83rd percentile; 35% hard-hit rate, 72nd percentile). His xERA has dropped to a career-best 3.03, so I’m rather bullish.
The Brewers are the far superior lineup, but the Reds have started to hit the ball again, posting a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in June. They’ve pulled (48%) plenty of fly balls (30%) during the stretch, which is typically a sign of better things to come.
While the Brewers boast a deep, elite bullpen, the Reds' bullpen is my favorite MLB unit. Headlined by Fernando Cruz’s unhittable splitter (54 strikeouts in 30 innings), Cincinnati ranks fourth in reliever fWAR (2.7), fifth in reliever strikeout rate (25%), and first in reliever Pitching+ (103).
Throw in Nick Martinez (1.91 ERA in 28 innings) and Buck Farmer (2.64 ERA in 30 innings), and Cincinnati has arguably the best bullpen in the league. I love these guys.
At the minimum, I make this matchup a wash. The Reds probably have the starting pitching advantage, considering Peralta’s struggles. The Reds arguably have the better bullpen. The Reds could hang in the batter's box if they can elevate and pull Peralta’s lower-velocity fastballs
BallParkPal makes the Reds a slight favorite (54% win probability, -119 implied odds), so I’m thrilled to take them as moderate ‘dogs.
Bets: Reds ML (+124, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+110)
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Angels vs Giants
Another day, another Tyler Anderson fade.
The most overvalued pitcher in baseball takes the mound with a 2.63 ERA but expected run indicators pushing five (4.66 xERA, 4.72 FIP, 5.02 xFIP). His .218 BABIP allowed is the fourth-lowest among qualified pitchers, and his 87% strand rate is the second-highest.
He has zero stuff, with his fastball velocity dropping under 90 mph for the first time in his career and his sinker-slider mix posting a combined 64 Stuff+ mark. He strikes out nobody (16%), walks everybody (10%), and generally doesn’t limit hard contact (10% barrel rate).
Hopefully, the regression train will pull into Anderson Station on Friday at Oracle. I’m confident because the Giants are obliterating lefties, posting a league-high 156 wRC+ against the side over the past month behind a 12% walk rate and a 30% fly-ball rate.
Although he’s overperforming (2.03 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 4.79 xFIP, 87 Stuff+), I trust Spencer Howard because he locates well (106 Location+, 6% walk rate) and has decent fastball velocity (94 mph).
Spencer also puts the Angels in their worse split. Over the past month, the Halos have posted an 89 wRC+ against the right side behind a brutal 45% ground-ball rate and 35% hard-hit rate. They’ve crushed southpaws during the same stretch (123 wRC+, 45% hard-hit rate).
I quite like the Giants' bullpen, which is super undervalued because it’s been drastically underperforming (4.17 ERA, 3.56 xFIP). Some positive regression has come, as it’s posted a 2.95 SIERA over the past two weeks behind a 4% walk rate. It’s hard not to trust a unit led by Camilo Doval, Ryan Walker and the Rogers Bros.
Conversely, the Angels bullpen is erratic (11% walk rate, 28th; 97 Location+, 26th) and ultimately ineffective (-0.6 fWAR, 27th).
Of greater importance, the Angels played in Arizona on Thursday, using three relievers (Luis Garcia, Hunter Strickland, Roansy Contreras), while the Giants had a day off with no travel because they hosted a three-game set with Houston between Monday and Wednesday.
The Giants have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, better lineup considering the splits, and a monster rest advantage. Our Action PRO Model projects Giants ML closer to -160.
Bets: Giants ML (-138, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-145)
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
McGrath's Bets for Friday, June 14
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Cubs F5 ML (-109, BetRivers) | Play to F5 ML (-145)
- Guardians vs Blue Jays Over 8 (-112, DraftKings) | Play to 9 (+100)
- Giants ML (-138, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-145)
- Padres vs Mets Under 7.5 (-105, bet365) | Play to 7.5 (-110)
- Reds ML (+124, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+110)
