It's NFL Week 12, so let's make some betting picks.
It's certainly not the most exciting slate on the board, especially compared to last week, but you know what's exciting? Winning football bets.
We finished up over six units last week at a 47% ROI, thanks largely to the Doug Pederson funeral escalator, and we're now up over 21 units on the season at just over 17% ROI.
You're not going to find many traditional spread picks this week. It's a tricky slate, and most of the picks I like best we've already played previously, like Ravens -2.5 on the Lookahead and Eagles -2.5 on the Hot Read. Instead, I've got a handful of props and a trio of interesting first-quarter looks. Let's get to it.
NFL Week 12 Predictions
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As a Vikings fan, the annual trip to Chicago used to be my nightmare. The Bears had won 16 of 19 since the turn of the century before Minnesota won the last four straight and seemed to shake the voodoo.
Minnesota still has the best defense in the league, both against the run and the pass by DVOA. Brian Flores will bring the heat all game, and that pressure could make life miserable for Caleb Williams, who specifically struggles holding the ball too long trying to create and make something happen.
That could take some time to adjust, and the Bears' defense is a slow starter, too, top 10 in the second half but bottom 10 in the first half. Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. The Vikings rank 2nd in first-quarter DVOA offensively and have excelled all season in Kevin O'Connell's early scripted plays before often struggling later in the game.
The first quarter numbers on the season could not be more of a contrast.
The Bears have yet to win a first quarter all season, the only such NFL team, at 0-7-3 SU. Chicago has just 13 points in the first quarter across 10 games and has been held scoreless in seven of them.
The Vikings are 8-1-1 SU in the first quarter with a combined score of 82-20. Minnesota has scored in all but one opening stanza and has 10 touchdowns in its 10 first quarters. The Vikings even won the first quarter in both of their two losses.
Be careful on these first-quarter bets. I'm playing the Vikings 3-way line, also posted as Minnesota -0.5 at some books, +130 at DraftKings. We'll lose if the quarter ends tied, but I'm not paying an extra 55 cents just for the pleasure of getting my money back in that scenario with a -125 moneyline pick.
I'll sprinkle Vikings -6.5 in the first quarter, too, at +350 (bet365). The Vikings have covered that spread in half their first quarters this season, with an average first-quarter margin of +6.2 points.
This might be my favorite play of the week. We're taking the D.J. Moore receptions escalator, and we're taking it all the way to the top.
The key angle here is a stat tip from Field Yates showing a significant change in how Moore was utilized in his first game under new Bears OC Thomas Brown.
Moore caught all seven of his targets last week with just a 0.9 ADOT, adding 56 yards after the catch. Brown wanted Caleb Williams to get the ball to his best, speediest playmaker quickly and let him cook. That was a stark contrast to Moore's numbers under Shane Waldron the first 10 weeks, where his ADOT was 8.3 yards downfield and his catch rate was just 61%, with just under 20 YAC/game.
There's little reason to expect that strategy to change this week. Remember, the Vikings bring a ton of pressure under Brian Flores, which means the Bears will want Williams to get the ball out quickly. That's perfect for D.J. Moore's game.
The Vikings may be the No. 1 defense, but they also allow the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs. They've been especially vulnerable, allowing a ton of quick catches to this exact sort of smaller, shiftier WR. Just look at some of the reception totals we've already seen against Minnesota from similar stylistic WRs to D.J. Moore already this season:
- Deebo Samuel: 8 receptions
- Stefon Diggs: 10 receptions
- Jayden Reed: 7 receptions
- Garrett Wilson: 13 receptions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 8 receptions
- Puka Nacua: 7 receptions
That's six opposing WR1s with at least seven catches, including three with 8+ and the one huge Amon-Ra game with 13.
We're taking the escalator all the way to the top.
Start with the traditional receptions line at over 4.5 (+100, BetRivers). Moore has done that in half his games, but the line looks set incorrectly, considering Moore's changing role under Brown.
We'll use that bet to fund the rest of the escalator. I went with 1.25 units on the traditional over, then 0.5 units on 7+ receptions at +375, 0.25 units on 8+ catches at +750, and another 0.25 units on 9+ catches at +1300, with all three alts at bet365.
Gotta touch 'em all. Let's hope for a huge D.J. Moore day.
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Mike Evans is finally back after missing a month of football.
Evans scored a touchdown on the first drive in that Monday night disaster against the Ravens in mid-October that also saw Chris Godwin sidelined for the season in the final minutes. The Bucs lost that game and have lost three more since, but Liam Coen's offense is still producing.
Tampa Bay is coming off its bye, but Baker Mayfield was actually tied for the NFL lead with 24 passing TDs before the break, and there just aren't many other go-to options now with Godwin out. Evans has 100 career touchdowns and has always been a monster threat in the red zone. He effectively has six touchdowns in six games this season, including two scores twice.
The Giants have a good defensive front seven but a bad secondary. They rank 31st by DVOA against opposing WR1s and 31st against deep passes. Opposing WR1s have eaten against Giants CB Deonte Banks all season, averaging 64 yards and almost a touchdown a game (0.9). Five of nine caught a touchdown, and three of them scored twice.
Even if Evans is somewhat limited returning from injury, Tampa Bay will surely use him in the red zone, where he's most valuable.
Evans has at least one touchdown in 15 of 24 games with Baker Mayfield. That 63% hit rate would imply a line closer to -175 for an Anytime Touchdown, so the injury return is buying us serious value at +160 (DraftKings). Put part of your bet on 2+ scores at +900 (FanDuel).
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We've played this angle before on the Lions because David Montgomery is a touchdown machine for this squad.
Montgomery has scored at least one touchdown in 21 of 27 Lions games since the start of last season, including the playoffs. That's a TD in 78% of his appearances, meaning there's value just playing an Anytime TD at -175 (Caesars) when that line should probably be -300 or shorter.
I don't love to lay so much juice, so I'll bump our odds by adding in Montgomery's traditional rushing yards over.
We know the script. Detroit, as a favorite, wants to get the lead and run the clock out. The Colts' run defense ranks bottom 10 by DVOA over the last six weeks, bad news against the league's top rushing attack. Indianapolis has allowed six RB1s this season to rush for at least 78 yards and a score, including in four of its last six games.
Montgomery doesn't usually put up huge yardage totals, but he's had 55 yards and a score in just over half his games since the start of last season. We're getting over 57.5 yards and a TD at +168 at Caesars.
If you follow on the app, you also saw a late add on the other side of this matchup.
Watching the tape back on the Colts last week, it was clear how much Indianapolis is designing rushing plays for Anthony Richardson to help him get comfortable in this offense. That's a stark contrast to the first month of this season, where he was barely running. Excluding that month, Richardson has 10+ rushing attempts in four of his five healthy games in his career.
I'll bet Richardson 10+ rushing attempts at +215 (bet365) and sprinkle a touch of the bet on 13+ rushes at +750 (Caesars).
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This rivalry has been a disaster for the Broncos for around a decade now. The Broncos did beat the Raiders in October after overcoming a 10-0 deficit early, but the Raiders had won eight in a row before that and Denver hasn't beaten the Raiders on the road since 2015.
Denver's stock may have peaked after piling on Atlanta against a shoddy defense featuring zero pass rush, letting Bo Nix sit back there and do as he pleased. The Raiders aren't very good, but the pass defense is the one respectable unit, and Maxx Crosby will make sure Nix earns his keep.
This is an obvious letdown spot on the road in a division game against an opponent that has Denver's number. The Broncos' defense is the best unit on the field but much better in the second half and with a lead, and the Raiders have been terrible in the second half but have hung around early. The defense ranks around league average in the first half, and the offense somehow ranks 6th by DVOA in the first quarter.
The Raiders beat the Broncos 10-0 in the first quarter last month before going on to lose by 16, and they beat the Chargers in the first quarter too. Those are good teams that ended up beating Las Vegas over four quarters, but the Raiders hung for a quarter.
Denver has lost five first quarters, including to terrible Raiders and Panthers squads. The Broncos have only won the first quarter twice.
You can play Raiders 1Q +0.5 at -125 (DraftKings) if you want the more conservative play. A tie cashes that bet and these teams have combined for seven first-quarter ties already this season. Don't play the +140 moneyline — we want to win money, not pay 65 cents extra for a low chance of just getting a refund.
I'll play the more aggressive three-way 1Q moneyline bet at +215. Our bet loses outright on a tie, but we're getting nearly triple the payout to the +0.5 bet, so I'll take my chances.
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This is one of the bigger games on the slate, and I've got several angles I'll talk through here. You can play them separately or combine them for an SGP if you like, and there's a future to play, too.
Arizona enters the weekend up a game on the rest of the NFC West, coming off its bye week. The Cardinals have made a huge leap defensively, now top 12 by DVOA against the run and the pass, but I'm not ready to buy the jump yet just because they beat up on the Bears and Jets.
The offense, however, is more convincing. Drew Petzing's unit has been outstanding, especially early. The Cardinals have the best first-quarter offense in the league by DVOA, while the Seahawks rank dead last. Arizona has scored at least seven points in seven of 10 first quarters.
The Cards aren't always winning that opening stanza, but Petzing's offense is scoring early. I'll take Arizona's team total of over 3.5 points in the first quarter at +105 (DraftKings).
That's the main bet here and I'll bet it standalone, but I'm also conflicted because I actually like Seattle in the matchup. The problem is that an even-odds moneyline isn't really worth betting against a rested Cardinals team I expect to score and potentially lead early — we'd be better off waiting and betting live with better odds.
I do think Seattle gets this win, though.
I actually think it's Seattle's defense, not Arizona's, that's sneaky good. Remember when the Seahawks had to play three games in 11 days without about half their defensive starters in Weeks 4 through 6? Excluding that no-win stretch (both literally and figuratively), the Seahawks' defense ranks in the top eight against both the run and the pass by DVOA. Mike Macdonald's unit looked good the last couple of weeks out of the bye, and his defenses have typically hit their peak late in past seasons.
Seattle's defense is also way better at home, up from 21st to nearly top 10 on the season, while the Cardinals' defense plummets from nearly top five at home to a pedestrian 26th on the road.
I like Seattle to win, and I won't stop you if you just want to play a Seattle moneyline around even odds. But I think there are better ways to bet it.
Start by grabbing a Seahawks division ticket at +600 (DraftKings). A win here ties Seattle with Arizona at the top of the division, and the Rams and 49ers (missing Brock Purdy — note: I am no longer recommending George Kittle props with Purdy out) are both underdogs this weekend. I like Seattle next weekend, too — see below — while Arizona is an underdog in Minnesota.
There's a very real chance the Seahawks lead this division outright one week from now, making this +600 ticket criminal. It won't be easy, but we'd have plenty of options to pivot or add to our position from there.
Seattle Island, we're back, baby!
For just this game alone, if you don't want to wait to bet live, let's just combine our two angles and create some negative correlation to juice our odds on a Same-Game Parlay.
I'll play Arizona over 3.5 points in the first quarter parlayed with a Seattle moneyline as a +380 SGP at Caesars. I'll also nibble a second SGP with those two legs along with a Cardinals first-quarter moneyline — basically, Arizona scores a 1Q TD and holds the lead to end the quarter before a Seattle win — at +725 (Caesars).
I've got a prop on this game, too, not particularly correlated, if you really want to juice an SGP at long odds.
Lockett has struggled in recent weeks, with only six catches for 91 yards combined in his last three games. It would be tempting to assume Lockett is fading from the lineup with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but this low-production stretch is actually Lockett's highest snap count percentage of the season — he's just played out of position with DK Metcalf hurt and hasn't seen many targets.
That should change against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th by DVOA against opposing WR3s. That's clearly Lockett's role in this offense at this point with Metcalf now back healthy, and Arizona simply doesn't have enough corners to cover everyone and should let Lockett cook a bit.
Even with the blah recent stretch, Lockett has at least 45 receiving yards in seven of 10 games this season, including one of the three recent ones. He's actually had at least 60 yards in half of his games.
This is just recency bias buying us value on the number. Remember, Arizona's defense is way worse on the road, too.
Give me Lockett over 36.5 receiving yards, and sprinkle part of your bet on 60+ yards at +300 (bet365), a number Lockett has hit in half his games this season.
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I already played a side in this one, grabbing Eagles -2.5 Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I like this under for some of the same reasons.
I really like how the Eagles' defense matches up. Rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been playing great football and have helped turn this defense around, and they match up well with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, including in the slot.
Philadelphia has the No. 1 defense in the NFL since its bye week. Vic Fangio is making magic again, and his style of defense makes the Eagles the best in the league defending the deep ball, which means opponents have to matriculate the ball down the field on long 10- and 15-play drives without making mistakes. That's just not something Matthew Stafford has been good at in his career.
The Rams' defense has outperformed expectations, too. Over the last six games, this is a borderline top-10 unit by many metrics. CB Darious Williams has been a big addition, and Jared Verse and Brandon Fiske lead a talented and fearsome front seven. The defense lacks size, though and is still vulnerable to the run — part of why I like the Eagles — but that should only slow the clock down and help the under. Philly has been the run-heaviest team in the league over the past two months and bottom five in neutral pace.
Sunday and Monday night primetime games have gone 61% to the under since 2019. That number has dropped to around .500 this season, but Sunday night still sits 8-3 to the under. Nick Sirianni tends to go over at home (70%) but under on the road (61%), a stark contrast.
I don't mind the full-game under here, but I especially like the first half. Philadelphia has had a terrible time getting its offense going early and ranks an ugly 27th by DVOA in first-half offense. That leaps to 3rd after halftime, and the Rams jump from 20th to 7th themselves.
These teams are a combined 15-5 to the first half under (75%). Give me the first-half under 24.5.
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Week 13 Lookahead: Seahawks vs. Jets
I am personally insulted by this Lookahead line. How are we still making the Jets favorites?!
New York is 3-8 on the season, both straight up and ATS. That includes 3-5 SU as favorites, two of those wins against the mighty Titans and Patriots. It also includes losses as 2, 2.5, 4.5, 7, and 8-point favorites, two of those at home. And yet, here we are again.
What exactly do the Jets do better than the Seahawks? They rank worse both running and passing on both offense and defense by DVOA. The special teams are worse. The defenses are trending in opposite directions. The coaching advantage is Seattle's. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams? I prefer Seattle's trio of WRs. Heck, I might even take Geno Smith over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
There's no reason the Jets should be favored here, and honestly, with New York's GM and coach now fired, are we even sure Rodgers will start this game after the bye week? The Athletic'sDianna Russini reports that Rodgers could be benched, placed on IR, or even cut, potentially giving us huge CLV in what could end up a matchup against Tyrod Taylor or worse.
I could only find one NFL game in our entire BetLabs database where a team winning and covering under a third of its games, like the Jets, was favored in Week 13 or later against a team at .500 or better — and that was a meaningless game to end the season.
This line just doesn't make sense, and I don't think the Jets end up favored here either. Since 2011, road favorites of under six points facing a team coming off its bye week are 28-15-1 ATS (65%).
Only one of these teams still has something to play for, and it ain't the Jets.
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