As the NFL playoffs continue, I've made a number of picks for the three Sunday Wild Card Round contests.
We have an exciting matchup that could propel the eventual AFC champions as the Buffalo Bills take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the San Francisco 49ers visit the Philadelphia Eagles and, finally, the Los Angeles Chargers close out the day against the New England Patriots.
Let's dive into my NFL Wild Card picks — which include over/under predictions, rush and receptions props and a same-game parlay — for Bills vs Jaguars, 49ers vs Eagles and Chargers vs Patriots on Sunday, January 11.
NFL Playoff Predictions — Wild Card Sunday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 1 p.m. | |
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  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Jaguars Spread Prediction; Rush Yards Prop
This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker.
The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season.
The Jags are No. 3 in DVOA with a top-10 offense, including top-five passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall.
Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, being a fringe bottom 10 on the season.
However, Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Their defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense.
The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can exploit Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant in finding answers all season.
Buffalo ranks in the bottom 10 against motion and under-center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks in the top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from the bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to the top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks in the bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, as many other teams have in past postseasons.
But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average.
Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved.
The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner.
The defense has been far better against outside runs, though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better at attacking on inside runs, ranking second in EPA per play.
If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win.
Nevertheless, the truth is the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, and probably even on offense.
Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season.
The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season.
These are not the Bills of the last few years.
Even those Bills have struggled on the road for a while now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (second in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons.
Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders.
In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993.
The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked in the bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA, but was a top-five home defense and a fringe top-10 offense.
The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know.
Instead, I'm going to try to get my money by halftime and get out.
The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season.
Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field.
The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA, but fall to the bottom five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to the top 10 by DVOA there after halftime.
Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-131, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie.
If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play.
But if Jacksonville wins the battle between my top two AFC power-rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'd like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual. If that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team.
I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl.
I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl, so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365).
Pick: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-131, Caesars)
Josh Allen To Lead the Game in Rushing Yards (+950)
If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel).
Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games.
Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook somewhat, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games.
If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of his usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.
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49ers vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction
There are a bunch of unknowns entering this game, but right now, everything sure seems to be coming up Philly.
OT Trent Williams is questionable for San Francisco, and he's among the most important non-QBs in football. He would be a huge loss here against a ferocious Eagles defensive front.
Another important offensive tackle, Lane Johnson, looks set to go for Philly on the other end. If Williams sits and Johnson plays, that would be a huge swing in Philadelphia's favor — literally worth a couple of points to the spread.
San Francisco just can't get or stay healthy this season. QB Brock Purdy took a wicked hit on his final play of the regular season, and that could leave him vulnerable to reinjury.
It looks like the 49ers could be shorthanded at receiver with Ricky Pearsall in doubt. The defense also remains ravaged by injuries, especially at linebacker, and this is not the team you want to be short on linebackers against.
The Eagles are rested and ready to defend their crown, while the wounded 49ers are licking their chops after laying a Week 18 egg and blowing the 1-seed. That's a rough setup for San Francisco.
The 49ers were absolutely the better team over 17 games this season, but the Eagles are the far healthier team right now, and they also have a flurry of matchup advantages here.
We know how poor Philadelphia's offense has been, although San Francisco's defense somehow rates worse.
The Eagles rank bottom 10 by DVOA offensively; the 49ers are even worse. Ditto on just the rushing attack, where Philadelphia has the second-worst run stuff rate in the league. However, San Francisco plays more light box than any team and has many injuries up front.
Jalen Hurts remains terrible under pressure. Nevertheless, San Francisco might be the worst pressure team in the league. The 49ers rank 29th in pressure rate and dead last in pressure-to-sack rate. San Francisco had only 20 sacks all season! Nick Bosa finished two off the team lead — and he hasn't played since September!
Philadelphia's offense is flawed and will likely be exposed later in the playoffs, but San Francisco's defense looks like the perfect salve this week.
And while San Francisco's offense has been red hot for much of the past few months, it's been much better against actual defenses.
Since Purdy returned from injury, the 49ers are at 54% Success Rate against defenses ranking 20th or worse, but just 36% in three games against any defense even close to league average — Seattle, of course, but also Carolina and Cleveland.
Unlike many elite offenses, the 49ers aren't winning with big explosive plays. This is an offense that matriculates the ball down the field with a high Success Rate, then wins on the money plays. The 49ers rank first in EPA per play on both third down and in the red zone.
That's a worrisome formula against top defenses that can stop those money plays — it's a big difference going 2-for-4 in the red zone instead of 4-for-4, or finishing 4-for-11 on third down instead of 7-for-11. Those are tiny samples over a full season, but in a playoff game, they represent the end of your season. Philadelphia's defense ranks in the top four in both third-down and red-zone defense.
Vic Fangio has this unit playing elite defense once again, a clear top-five unit over the final half of the season. And his defense has a history of shutting down Kyle Shanahan. In four previous meetings, a Shanahan-led offense has scored just 15, 11, 9, and 6 points — barely 10 PPG.
Shanahan offenses attack the middle of the field as much as anyone, and Fangio's defense leads the league in EPA there. They also rank second against short passes, where the 49ers also rank second, and they're elite against tight ends.
Philadelphia plays a lot of light boxes, daring opponents to beat them with the run. Past 49ers teams would have eaten in that spot, but San Francisco ranks just 30th in EPA per play against light boxes this season, and that's an even bigger problem if Williams is out.
Philly's QB Jalen Hurts is unbeaten at home in the playoffs, 4-1 ATS, and winning by an average of 21 PPG. Purdy is 0-4 both SU and ATS as an underdog in his career, failing to cover by 12 PPG.
The matchup and numbers suggest this could turn ugly — but I can't invest in Philadelphia at such an inflated number.
I like the under.
I bet the under early this week on the Hot Read at 46.5, but still like it anywhere above 44.
Philadelphia unders are 7-1 since their bye week at the start of November (not counting Week 18 when they sat starters), compared to 3-6 before that. Eagles games average just 33.8 PPG in those eight games, with all four matchups against playoff teams finishing at 41 or below.
Don't forget the winter conditions, either. This looks windy, and windy unders are 61% over the past five seasons. Besides, you should default to the under this round until proven otherwise. Outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above are an incredible 35-9 to the under in the Wild Card Round over the past couple of decades, hitting at a smoking 80%.
How about a couple of silly, small sample trends that have been invincible since 2016? Home teams coming off a home loss are a perfect 10-0-1 to the under in the playoffs — that's Philly — while road teams coming off a home loss are 10-0 to the under themselves (San Francisco).
I don't trust San Francisco to score in this matchup, and the Eagles never seem to score anymore. Philadelphia games have been an ugly watch down the stretch, with totals since the start of November at 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17.
This is an under all the way. Play the best line you can find — we'll go under 45.5 (BetRivers), and let's take the mineshaft too.
Five of the last eight Eagles games are at 31 or below, so let's play under 33.5 at +460 (bet365), and we'll try under 27.5 too at +870 (FanDuel), since both are slight key numbers for low total games.
If this is going to be an ugly watch, we may as well profit.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110, BetRivers)
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Chargers vs Patriots Parlay; Receptions Prop
This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend.
I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run.
With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank in the bottom five in sack differential.
I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks in the top three in amount of zone played, light boxes and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quarterbacks like Drake Maye.
The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is the worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers'.
At least the Chargers have been tested, though.
The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season.
Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season!
Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively.
There are also real matchup concerns.
The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better at running the ball outside, third in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field as well.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league.
New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much!
The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers' defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble.
The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. However, the Chargers defense is the best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early.
It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower-scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position.
The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road.
In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win.
Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games.
I think this game goes one of two ways.
Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way, and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high.
I'm going with the latter pairing, which means the under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play.
Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experienced postseason QBs are 34% ATS.
If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings).
Pick: Under 46.5 & Chargers +3.5 (+242, DraftKings)
Omarion Hampton Receptions Escalator (+2500)
If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator.
Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book with injury protection, if available.
New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games in which they allowed 5+ RB receptions, including 8 twice.
Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six and that eight.
That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches.
This is also a nice play next to our Chargers angle. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.
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Brandon's Wild Card Sunday Betting Card
- Jaguars 1st Half Spread +0.5 (-131; Caesars)
- 49ers vs Eagles Under 45.5 (-110, BetRivers)
- Chargers vs Patriots Parlay: Under 46.5 & Chargers +3.5 (+242, DraftKings)
