NFL Week 16 arrived on Saturday, and I have some NFL player props locked in for the Sunday slate.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 16. Also, be sure to keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 16 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 16
- Adonai Mitchell (Colts) Over 22.5 Receiving Yards -113 (FanDuel)
- Daniel Bellinger (Giants) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
- Ray Davis (Bills) Over 21.5 Rush Yards (-120) (-120, DraftKings)
Titans vs Colts Player Props: Adonai Mitchell Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
With Alec Pierce ruled out due to a concussion, Adonai Mitchell should be a full time player this week.
The last time this happened was in Week 10 when Michael Pittman missed, and I took Mitchell’s over and laddered it with a couple of other alternative overs.
That was also when Joe Flacco w as under center, which was part of the reason I decided to invest in Mitchell to go above and beyond his prop. He did so with a 6/71/0 game.
He’s a rookie that I think has a ton of upside in 2025 and beyond as my comp for him was a less polished Tee Higgins.
He’s just missed on a few long catches and/or TDs this season, and is due for a bit more luck going forward, as he’s only caught 41% of his targets despite having an expected catch rate of 55% (according NextGenStats).
Unfortunately, he’d going to continue to get inaccurate passes from Anthony Richardson, but he’s still due for a better catch rate going forward and he trends to run most of his routes downfield – meaning he can easily clear this with a single catch.
It’s a game where the Colts should be able to lean on the run and not have to throw too much. I’m not going to be on Mitchell’s ladder again here, but set his median closer to 28.5 and love his upside with Pierce out.
Giants vs Falcons Player Props: Daniel Bellinger Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
With Theo Johnson going down with a season-ending injury in Week 14, it opens the door for Daniel Bellinger to take over as the lead tight end. For the past two games, he has cleared this number with ease.
However, this line might be a tad high because he actually saw his routes-run rate drop from 82% to 60% last game and recently acquired Greg Dulcich saw an uptick in playing time.
The Giants already know what they have in Bellinger, so it might make more sense for them to continue to give Dulcich (a third-round pick last season) more work over the final few weeks as they plan for 2025 and beyond.
Bellinger is also due for some catch regression as he has caught all 11 of his targets (two were batted down at the line of scrimmage), but we should expect him to catch closer to 75% of his targets going forward.
The TE position hasn’t played a massive role in this offense, as the passing game flows through Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson.
The prop market is very sharp this time of year, but I think Bellinger is offering a few yards of value as I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5.
Patriots vs Bills Player Props: Ray Davis Over 21.5 Rush Yards
This game sets up perfectly for Ray Davis, who tends to see more work when the Bills can build up a big lead.
They’re coming off two close games against the Rams and Lions, but are 14-point home favorites against the Patriots this week.
It would make sense for the Bills to attempt to limit James Cook’s touches to keep him fresh for the playoffs and this could be the perfect spot to do it.
The Patriots rank 29th in Rush DVOA making this a plus matchup for Davis on the ground as well.
I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 and love his upside in this spot.
