Washington vs. Oregon Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 65.5 -114o / -112u | +290 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -109 | 65.5 -114o / -112u | -385 |
By Dan Keegan
In a cruel twist of fate, the final Pac-12 Championship game might be the league’s best matchup yet and one of the crown jewels of this weekend.
Oregon and Washington meet as fierce rivals with a trophy on the line, a playoff berth at stake and Heisman Trophy ramifications — and as future members of the Big Ten.
The conference’s last hurrah is a massive game; the league is going out with a shout, not a whimper.
These programs — both with second-year coaches and veteran superstar transfer quarterbacks — have played a pair of epic games the past two seasons. Both were nip-and-tuck affairs won at the buzzer by Washington; yet, the market favors Oregon by almost double digits.
The Huskies hunted the Ducks in October, giving Dan Lanning and company their only loss in Week 7. But the teams’ respective fortunes have wavered since.
Washington is still undefeated, but four of its wins since have been by only one score, including all of the last three. Oregon, meanwhile, has had only game closer than double digits, with an average margin of victory of 26.
And so Washington — 23-2 with Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix, including 2-0 against Oregon in that stretch — finds itself on the wrong side of a 10-point spread. Is Vegas right to trust the white-hot Ducks, or is there value in the team that has gotten it done time after time for the past two seasons?
With everything at stake and the two instant classics these two outfits have already waged in mind, this is the marquee game of the weekend in a showcase Friday night spot.
To prepare you, we've polled 16 of our college football experts to find a consensus on the matchup. Let’s get into our picks.
Washington vs. Oregon Spread
Washington +9.5
By Dan Keegan
Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and the line has since moved in its direction. We polled our staff on a spread of 9.5, and while there were six Ducks backers, nine of our staff member would take the points.
Simply put, the market is giving too much attention to November and not Washington’s entire body of work. Yes, the Huskies have played a few tight games, but they're a veteran, battle-tested team with a clear identity that knows how to win.
They've also proven that they know how to beat Oregon.
Yes indeed, Washington beat Oregon earlier this season in an evenly-matched affair. It also did it last year in another extremely tight contest. Washington has proven for two years that it's Oregon’s peer on the field, but because Oregon got to house California and Arizona State in the past few weeks, this line has ballooned.
There are rumors swirling about Michael Penix Jr’s health — admittedly, he has not played the best ball of his career in November. But running back Dillon Johnson and receiver Rome Odunze have been on fire for a few weeks as the team continues to meet every challenge.
Oregon is the better team despite the earlier season loss. Most metrics give the Ducks the edge; both teams are outstanding on offense, but the Ducks are also excellent on defense, while Washington is merely good on that side of the ball.
But Oregon is not 10 points better. Our Action Network betting power ratings make the Ducks a 6.5-point favorite on a neutral field. SP+ makes it 8. Parker Fleming’s EPA model makes it a 5-point game.
With everything at stake for both teams, with a game on the neutral field, with Washington’s track record — our staff agrees that 9.5 is simply too high for Penix and Co.
Washington vs. Oregon Over/Under
Over 66.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 66.5 | 9 Picks |
Under 66.5
By Cody Goggin
The last matchup between these two teams saw a combined 69 points in a game that saw Washington emerge victorious. Our staff doesn’t see this being the case again. With a total set at 66.5, we came to a consensus pick on the under by a vote of 9-6.
On the surface, you would think that two of the most high-powered offenses in college football would play in a high-scoring affair. However, with both teams sustaining long drives, it becomes hard for either team to have the ball enough to push this over the total.
Oregon’s offense leads the whole nation in Success Rate and ranks second in Finishing Drives, but it's just 82nd in explosiveness.
This means we can expect Oregon to score at an extremely high rate, but it may not have enough drives to really rack up the points if Washington does something similar.
And wouldn't you know it? Washington’s offense has worked in a similar way this season.
The Huskies rank fourth in Offensive Success Rate but have struggled to generate explosive plays. Washington comes in at 90th in passing explosiveness and 78th in rushing explosiveness on the season.
Back when these two faced off in October, Oregon had just a 6% explosive play rate (26th percentile), as it matriculated the ball down the field. Washington, meanwhile, had a 13% explosive play rate (91st percentile) that it needed to reach 36 points.
The first meeting between these two required performances in the 96th percentile and 92nd percentile by each team to go over 66.5 points by just 2.5 points.
If either offense falters just a bit, there's a good chance we see this total go under the current number as our staff expects.
More Ways to Bet Washington vs. Oregon
Bo Nix Over 2.5 Passing TDs
-130 · Play to -145
By Doug Ziefel
There may not be a better player to back than current Heisman frontrunner Bo Nix. The Ducks quarterback has put it all together in his senior season, as he comes in with a sparkling 37:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Nix leads the country in completion percentage and ranks fifth in yards per pass. Add in the fact that Oregon throws the ball at the 31st-highest rate in the nation, and you understand how the Ducks have become an offensive juggernaut.
In the first meeting with the Huskies, Nix was firing in the shootout. He finished 33-of-44 with 337 yards and two touchdown passes. I expect Nix to replicate that performance, but he should find positive regression in the touchdown department.
Nix has thrown at least three touchdown passes in 58% of games played this season. The tempo of this matchup will be quick once again, and Nix should be able to go blow-for-blow with Washington's Michael Penix Jr., as he can flourish with the extra volume and ample time to throw.
Bo Nix Over 12.5 Rush Yards
Play to 15.5
I’ll be honest — when I first dove into handicapping this game, my top priority was finding a way to hedge my Bo Nix +3000 Heisman ticket (thank you, Collin Wilson!).
However, my focus took an unexpected detour when I saw the number posted for Nix’s rushing total. So much for my hedging strategy, as it appears I’m now holding a one-way ticket aboard the Nix train.
My reasoning is simple — Oregon protects its quarterback better than anyone else in the country. It's allowed just five sacks all season and owns the top PFF pass-blocking grade in FBS.
Conversely, Washington averages just over 1.5 sacks per game, good for 110th in the country.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean that Nix is going to run rampant over the Huskies defense, it helps eliminate the most crucial factor in betting college quarterback rushing props. In college, quarterbacks are deducted rushing yards when they're sacked, which is an absolute killer for over bets.
The mismatch in the trenches leaves little cause for concern over the dreaded sack. Plus, this number is low enough that Nix could clear it with just one scramble.
Interestingly enough, the first time these teams met, Nix finished the day with 14 rushing yards despite taking an eight-yard sack, which is good enough for me.
Minimize the sack damage, tuck it for a timely scamper or two and then head to New York City to pick up the Heisman.
