The Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) and Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) will close out the first round of the College Football Playoff in Columbus on Saturday, Dec. 21. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Emotions will be sky-high when these teams take the field at Ohio Stadium. The regular-season finale did not pan out for Ohio State, which lost to Michigan for the fourth straight season.
The Buckeye faithful will be sure to echo their joy or frustration for head coach Ryan Day on Saturday night.
On the other side, Tennessee drew the 9th seed in the playoff and will make the 5-hour drive to Columbus. Head coach Josh Heupel suffered 2 losses on the season — SEC road games against Arkansas and Georgia.
Cold temperatures are expected in Columbus, as Ohio State remains a -7.5 favorite in the market with the over/under at 46.
Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for the final first-round College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Tennessee vs Ohio State Prediction and Betting Pick
Tennessee vs. Ohio State spread prediction: Tennessee +7.5 · Under 46.5
My Ohio State vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread and both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Moneyline Prediction: PASS
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Total Prediction: PASS
Tennessee vs Ohio State Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -290 |
- Spread: Ohio State -7.5, Tennessee +7.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Ohio State ML -290, Tennessee ML +240
Tennessee Volunteers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Analysis
Tennessee Volunteers
Whether the role was as an offensive coordinator at Utah State or a head coach at UCF, Josh Heupel is known for an uptempo stretch offense that creates dynamic passing angles.
Long gone is the 11-win team of 2022 comprised of quarterback Hendon Hooker and a slew of wide receivers capable of taking a slant to the end zone.
Tennessee runs the ball on 61% of snaps, implementing a number of run concepts from inside zone, counter and power.
Running back Dylan Sampson has been one of the toughest rushers in the nation, averaging 3.6 yards after first contact while creating 70 missed tackles.
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Quarterback Nico Iamaleava must keep the Volunteers in standard downs, as the explosives drop to 124th nationally in known passing downs.
The Tennessee offensive line has also struggled in protection, ranking 74th in pass blocking, per PFF. Iamaleava has struggled in 99 dropbacks with a crowded pocket, failing to generate a big-time throw with a drop below 60% in adjusted completion percentage.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Tim Banks has created one of the best defensive resumes for Tennessee in recent history.
Edge James Pearce is the top-rated rusher at his position of all FBS players in pass-rush productivity rankings, generating 53 pressures and eight sacks on the season.
The excellence of the defensive line doesn't stop with Pearce against the pass. The Vols rank top-10 nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Edge Joshua Josephs also grades out as the best run defender at his position in FBS.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Head coach Ryan Day might coach the biggest game of his life here, as he's looking to beat an SEC team for the first time since taking over in Columbus.
Ohio State took two losses during the season by a combined four points to Oregon and Michigan.
The Wolverines produced a trio of methodical drives, winning the field-position battle while converting half of their 14 attempts on third down.
Ohio State has had consistent issues defending the rush, finishing 50th in Line Yards. The Buckeyes have had average FBS success marks against every run concept, excelling against offenses using outside zone.
Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has called the best defense in the nation when opponents reach the extended red zone, leading the nation in Finishing Drives, allowing just 1.9 points on 59 opponent scoring attempts.
The biggest issue facing the Buckeyes has been the health of the offensive line.
Blindside tackle Josh Simmons' season-ending surgery shifted starters entering the final month of the season. Center Seth McLaughlin's injury had ramifications in the rushing attack, as Michigan stuffed 42% of Ohio State's attempts.
McLaughlin won the Rimington Award for best center in the nation and should be healthy for the playoff — a major boost to an unstable offensive line.
The play of the offensive tackles may dictate the Buckeyes' chances of creating chunk yardage, as outside zone has produced an explosive on 26% of attempts.
Donovan Jackson has produced subpar grades as the left tackle in two games against Indiana and Michigan.
Austin Siereveld filled in at left guard for Jackson, producing one of the worst run-blocking grades of the season of any Ohio State lineman against Michigan.
Ohio State vs Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Tennessee match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 2 | |
Ohio State Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 9 |  |
| Pass Success | 2 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 10 |
| PFF Coverage | 17 | 14 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.1 (19) | 28.7 (113) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (18) | 54% (64) |
Tennessee vs Ohio State Picks, Best Bets
There are a number of advantages for Tennessee on both sides of the ball, starting with Sampson in the backfield.
The Volunteers' inside zone with a mix of counter and power should move the chains and produce explosives against the Buckeyes defense, particularly with power.
Ohio State ranks 53rd in broken tackles allowed, as second-level tackling has been a consistent issue for the Buckeyes.
Expect a Volunteers offensive line that finished top-10 in Line Yards to give Sampson plenty of room to create first downs on every rushing attempt.
Defending the rush is critical for Ohio State, as Iamaleava ended the season with an average of 2.9 seconds per release on passing attempts. With an offensive line that thrives in run blocking, the opposite is true when it comes to protecting the Tennessee quarterback.
Explosives are not in the forecast for the offensive passing attack led by Iamaleava, particularly against a Buckeyes defense that sits third nationally in Pass EPA allowed.
Not only will scoring chances be minimal against Knowles' defense, but Tennessee also ranks 62nd in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Tennessee's defensive line will take away the outside zone run concept that Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly prefers. The Volunteers have a 70% Success Rate against outside zone, led by Pearce and Josephs at the edge position.
The Vols have struggled to tackle in the open field with a rank of 80th in broken tackles allowed. That's important if Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson can get beyond the Tennessee defensive line with another run concept.
Similar to the Tennessee offense, Ohio State must maintain attempts in standard downs, as quarterback Will Howard has just a single big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays in a pressured pocket.
Action Network projects Ohio State as a 6.5-point favorite, but the total should be considered as well.
The Tennessee defensive line, particularly the edge positions, should dominate against the run and pass.
The Volunteers' consistent issues in scoring position will continue against Knowles' 4-2-5 scheme that's the best in the nation in Defensive Finishing Drives.
CFP Picks: Under 46.5 or Better · Tennessee +7.5 or Better · Dylan Sampson Over 91 Yards
Tennessee vs Ohio State Channel, How to Watch, Game Info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tennessee will head to Columbus to face Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
