Oregon vs. Colorado Odds & Prediction: Spread & Over/Under Best Bets for Week 4 Matchup

By Dan Keegan

Here’s the thing: none of this Colorado season feels real to any of us, does it?

College football has never seen anything like what Deion Sanders — along with his talented sons, his creative coordinators and his hand-picked transfers — has engineered in Boulder.

It’s unprecedented. It’s magical. It defies expectations, it defies reality and it might soon start to defy math.

Because here at Action Network we share cold, hard data with you, and we recommend picks with analytics-driven insight. Our PRO subscription product is literally about more insight, more numbers and more data — not vibes.

But what if the vibes are too powerful? What if Coach Prime and company are going to break math?

Because all of the numbers and metrics have Oregon as an overwhelming favorite to end this unbeaten Colorado start. The Ducks have advantages in the trenches, a quarterback who can sling it with Shedeur, skill-position talent and a great home-field advantage.

But close your eyes and imagine a world where Deion and Shedeur are giving another triumphant interview on a shocked Autzen sideline. It’s not hard to imagine, is it?

How do you bet a team that breaks math? Or is it the other way around — will the math finally catch up to the Buffaloes?

We polled our team of college football experts here at Action Network about this massive Pac-12 collision — one that might define how the rest of the season unfolds in the conference.

We took 15 ballots and then counted ‘em up — there we go, doing math again — to see if we could find a consensus on this game.

Unsurprisingly, you’ll find that our numbers-based approach led to some strong consensus on this game. It’s hard to argue with what’s on paper for this matchup — but it’s also impossible to argue with the vibes in Colorado.

Let’s get to the picks.

By Thomas Schlarp

Dear Coach Prime,

We do not believe.

Sincerely,
Action Network College Football Staff

At least not this week against the upper echelon of the Pac-12.

Going into the season, there was much discussion about whether Colorado’s size — or rather, lack thereof — on the offensive and defensive lines would be an issue. While the skill-position players and turnover luck have compensated for poor play on the line of scrimmage, that’s likely not going to be the case against Oregon.

The Ducks have arguably the best offensive line in the country, protecting a skilled, veteran quarterback who no longer makes the boneheaded mistakes that plagued him at Auburn. Oregon has allowed just one sack all season and will bully a Colorado front seven that ranks 105th in Havoc.

Bo Nix should have all day to find his favorite receiver, Troy Franklin, and the Ducks' running backs should have no problem finding space against a Colorado defense that's just 85th in Run Success.

Oregon’s main deficiency has been its defense, but it’s actually shown early signs of improvement this season. Its coverage grades have gotten better, while its run defense has shown some regression.

Texas Tech, and mainly quarterback Tyler Shough, had success running the ball. But the Buffaloes have no semblance of a run game, and Shadeur Sanders is much more of a pocket passer than Shough.

This fails to mention Colorado’s offensive line has been horrible at protecting its quarterback, with the Buffs allowing the second-most sacks in the country and the most yardage lost to tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

One of the main things that has kept Colorado in games has been turnovers and its opponents’ self-inflicted errors. The Buffaloes have been the beneficiaries of 10 turnovers, tied for the most in the nation. While that’s helped them eke out two one-score games, that won’t be the case in Eugene — the Ducks have yet to commit a single turnover this season.

Then throw in that Colorado will be without Travis Hunter, whose loss will likely be more notable on defense, and the Buffaloes just aren’t going to be able to keep Oregon’s offense off the field.

When the Ducks win as three-touchdown favorites, are their fans also allowed to storm the field? Or is that just a Colorado thing?

By Action Analytics

It's officially "Prime Time" in America on Saturdays.

I will be the first to admit I was a doubter coming into the season, but it only took one quarter of Colorado football for head coach Deion Sanders to convert me.

So far, Colorado has played in two of the most exciting games of the season and beat the national runner-up on the road. And they’ve done it in style.

No one has ever accused the Oregon Ducks of being quiet, but they definitely have not been the darling of the Pac-12 ball this year. Colorado, USC and Washington have all seen more media coverage. An early scare against Texas Tech certainly didn't help.

That may change if they can run the Buffaloes out of Eugene. The spread is set at 21, but we all saw what happened last time Colorado was a three-touchdown dog.

The Buffaloes are a tale of two offenses: the run game and the pass game.

Their run game ranks in the bottom 15 in Success Rate and PPA/Play. They rank second-to-last in rushing plays rate, running the ball only a third of the time.

But at the same time, they're quite potent through the air. The Buffs throw the ball two-thirds of the time — the second-highest rate nationally — and rank 26th in Passing Success Rate and 41st in Passing PPA/Play — but surprisingly only 65th in explosiveness.

Oregon is much more balanced. It ranks in the top 10 in Offensive Success Rate, Points per Opportunity and Havoc Allowed. That's extremely impressive, but it was to be expected from a team with a veteran quarterback and some continuity on offense.

I don’t think this Ducks team will have a problem moving the ball. Stopping Colorado? That's a different story.

Give me the over, and let’s have an incredible weekend of football.

By Alex Hinton

On the field, much of the hype surrounding this game revolves around the quarterback matchup. Sheduer Sanders and Bo Nix are both candidates to hear their names called early in next April’s NFL Draft.

However, Oregon’s biggest advantage in this game is on the line of scrimmage.

Oregon has one of the best and most powerful offensive lines in the country. It will be facing a Colorado defense that ranks 105th in Havoc and 85th in Rushing Success Rate.

The beneficiary of that will be Ducks running back Bucky Irving. While he runs behind a great offensive line, Irving is no slouch himself.

The junior led the Ducks last season with 1,058 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per carry. This season, he has 216 rushing yards on eight yards per run.

As you can see by his yards-per-carry average, Irving is a home-run hitter. He scored on 52- and 56-yard touchdown runs against Portland State. Last season, he had runs of 36, 65 and 66 yards.

I'm expecting Irving to hit at least one explosive run in this game, which may do most of the work to clear this line. It helps that Colorado ranks 91st in rushing explosiveness defensively this season.

In its season opener, Colorado allowed 262 rushing yards to TCU. Emani Bailey accounted for 164 of them, including a 74-yard scamper. Nebraska also went over 200 rushing yards with Jeff Sims, Gabe Ervin Jr. and Rahmir Johnson each recording a run of at least 44 yards.

A long run or two will likely help Irving to surpass 100 rushing yards. You can take Irvin to run for 100 yards at +182 and a max value of 125 yards at +370 at FanDuel.

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