Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds
| Michigan Wolverines Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +102 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -154 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -124 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
By Dan Keegan
We love college football for many reasons — small school Cinderellas, trash-talking our rivals, the schematic and style differences, Dr. Pepper commercials, tailgating, the bands, betting — you get the picture.
But nothing gets the blood flowing quite like a matchup between two powerhouses with conference title and National Championship stakes — to say nothing of the personal and emotional investment riding on the outcome.
For a century, the Ohio State/Michigan rivalry has delivered quality football between two blue bloods. Winning or losing this game has shaped seasons, decades and careers for the people competing in it.
The past decade of this rivalry has set the table for Saturday’s massive collision, with both teams essentially playing for a Big Ten title, a College Football Playoff berth, a criticized head coach and pride.
Michigan will take the field as 3.5-point favorites at home but without head coach Jim Harbaugh. Ohio State will challenge it after having dropped "The Game" in the past two meetings, marring head coach Ryan Day’s otherwise spotless resume.
Both teams are carrying top-three rankings, undefeated seasons and “us against the world” narratives into the most-hyped game of the year — maybe the most-hyped game since LSU vs. Alabama in 2019.
All eyes, and plenty of betting tickets, will be on this game, so we polled our staff of 14 college football experts to try to find a consensus.
Our staff loves the Buckeyes and the under, plus we have a few other ways to play this game. Let’s get into the analysis.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Spread
Ohio State +3.5
By Dan Keegan
Our staff is heavily on the Buckeyes in this matchup.
Perhaps it’s just taking points in a matchup that looks like a dead heat. Perhaps it’s fading the Wolverines without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. Or perhaps the Buckeyes have some real advantages on the field to highlight as well.
The Buckeyes defense has done a major turnaround from two seasons ago, when it was steamrolled in the Big House. They will have a major advantage on the edges, as Michigan’s tackles have been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness in recent weeks.
Ohio State’s edge rush featuring JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer should be in line to make the kind of swingy, game-changing plays that Michigan got from Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo en route to its win in 2021.
They will face a Michigan offense that still has some questions to answer about its place in the sport’s upper echelon.
The Wolverines rank 109th in explosive play rate for the season. This unit has regressed the past few weeks and has not been playing its most effective football of the season.
On the other side of the field, Ohio State is peaking right now. The Buckeyes won their past two games by a combined score of 75-6 against Michigan State and Minnesota.
The defense seemingly improves every week, and the team is getting healthier after a rash of midseason injuries.
One of those healing players is TreVeyon Henderson, who will be an X-factor on Saturday. The former blue-chip recruit missed most of October but is back healthy and playing the best ball of his career in Columbus.
In his four games back, he has rushed for 125 yards per game at 6.7 yards per tote.
In an evenly matched game, our staff likes the team getting points that's playing with momentum right now. It also doesn’t hurt that Ohio State will have its head coach on Saturday, unlike Michigan.
We'll take the Buckeyes +3.5.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Over/Under
Over 46.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 4 Picks |
Under 46.5 | 8 Picks |
Under 46.5
By Dan Keegan
Our team recommends taking the under, with these rivals ranking first and second overall in defensive SP+.
When you look at Michigan’s two-game winning streak in this series, you see that it's been able to physically dominate and push around an Ohio State team with a burgeoning reputation for finesse.
That reputation has been put to rest.
The defensive nadir of Ohio State's 2021 season is in the rearview mirror, and coordinator Jim Knowles has remodeled his defense with toughness and tenacity in mind. The Buckeyes rank 11th in Success Rate Allowed, fourth in preventing explosives and second in Defensive Finishing Drives.
They're equally strong against the run and the pass, ranking eighth overall in EPA/Pass and eighth overall in EPA/Rush.
The Ohio State defense that was bullied off the field in 2021 and let the second half turn into a Michigan track meet in 2022 is no more.
Likewise, its counterparts in blue are excellent.
The Wolverines are a little more susceptible to the big play, ranking 36th in explosives allowed, but they're fourth in Success Rate and first in Defensive Finishing Drives.
With two excellent red-zone defenses, this could end up being a field goal contest.
Both quarterbacks have questions to answer, as well.
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy attempted only one pass play in the second half two weeks ago against Penn State and struggled to put away Maryland last time out.
Ohio State’s Kyle McCord has a 22:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but his 16-to-13 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio shows much less steady play than his box score stats suggest. Either way, CJ Stroud ain’t walking through that door.
Neither offense has shown a proclivity for big plays.
Ohio State’s offense ranks 78th in the nation in explosives, and Michigan’s ranks a jarring 109th. Against two excellent down-to-down defenses, these teams will need to get free for big plays to create points, something neither has shown the ability to do this season.
Finally, there's the issue of pace. The Buckeyes rank 83rd in seconds per play, and the Wolverines 131st. This game will start slow as the teams feel each other out, and stay slow, as the excellent defenses will stay close to the line of scrimmage without the fear of getting burned.
For our staff, all of these factors point to an under 46.5 play.
More Ways to Bet Michigan vs. Ohio State
Ohio State ML +150
Play to +130
This game is what it's all about. As we slog through a slow week from time to time, we are handsomely rewarded with a weekend like this, and in particular, a game like this.
This matchup at the Big House features two top-three teams and is essentially for all the marbles — and I think the value resides with the plus-money road dogs.
Coming into this game, Michigan is dealing with a handful of injuries on the offensive line that could affect its ability to execute its run-heavy packages. Both left tackles LaDarius Henderson and Myles Hinton have been dealing with injuries in recent weeks, and this could be an impediment for a team that runs on 61.4% of plays.
Additionally, leading receiver Roman Wilson is listed as questionable and might not be at 100%.
After getting by without head coach Jim Harbaugh for the last two weeks, this will be a massive test for interim head coach Sherrone Moore. Clearly, this is not a situation Michigan wants to be in for a game of this caliber, as every little decision matters.
Moore led the Blue past Penn State with a very unique game plan that didn’t feature a pass play for nearly 60% of the game and then found a way to skate past Maryland.
The minutia will matter in this one, and not having your head coach and program head will certainly be a headwind for the Wolverines.
There's a reason Michigan is favored by the books in this game, but I do see the value on the plus-money side. Ohio State will need to force Michigan out of its comfort zone and into the passing game.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been good this season but is averaging just 21.5 passing attempts per game.
Given the injuries on the offensive line, I think it's plausible that more could be asked of McCarthy in a game without Harbaugh. This could set up Ohio State and allow Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the X-factor on the other side.
I like backing the road team in this high-stakes Big Ten game and recommend betting Ohio State to win this game outright at +130 or better.
Colston Loveland Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Play to 39.5
By Alex Hinton
Colston Loveland was widely expected to take a leap in his sophomore season. He has already doubled his output in receptions (32), yards (465) and touchdown receptions (4).
He will enter "The Game" hitting having hit this line in six of his 11 games this season. While he just cleared last week with 36 yards at Maryland, he posted at least 55 receiving yards in the other five games.
He also had 45 yards at Ohio State last season, thanks to a touchdown reception. It was one of four touchdowns of at least 45 yards that Michigan had in last year’s victory.
That has made Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles emphasize limiting big plays in Year 2 of his system.
It has been a very successful strategy in part because the Big Ten is littered with anemic offenses. Many teams Ohio State has faced are not capable of moving the ball on it with long, sustained drives — but Michigan is.
Additionally, Corneilus Johnson has had three explosive plays — and two touchdowns — against Ohio State over the past two seasons.
But Michigan’s best receiver this season has been Roman Wilson. There's also Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards to account for in the running game.
Knowles will have to prioritize who he wants to take away. If he's going to focus on limiting big plays, Loveland should be able to find room underneath.
Loveland is averaging 14.4 yards per reception this season, which would give him 42 yards with three catches. Adjusting for opponent, four receptions at nine yards per also gets him over this number.
Loveland has at least three receptions in seven games this season, including four games with four receptions, so he should find a way to clear this number.
Michigan Team Touchdowns Under 2.5
+140 · Play to +120
The Jim Knowles Year 2 effect will be on display one final time in the regular season on Saturday.
Guess how many times opponents have gone for three or more touchdowns against the Buckeye defense this season? Zero. Not once.
Could you argue Michigan will be the best offense Ohio State has seen this year? Sure. But the unit is hardly a juggernaut.
Ohio State will be able to put pressure on J.J. McCarthy when he drops back to throw, which will force Michigan into a more conservative game plan.
Additionally, with both teams leaning on their ground games, expect the clock to fly by and limit the number of total possessions.
When Michigan does move the ball into Buckeye territory, it will struggle to find the end zone. Knowles’ defense excels in that area and will be able to force the Wolverines into field-goal attempts.
Give me under 2.5 Michigan touchdowns in a fun way to bet on "The Game."
