After the Kansas Jayhawks started the season 1-5, who would’ve thought they’d be in such a pivotal Big 12 game?
Any hope for the Jayhawks to perform in the Big 12 championship or College Football Playoff is out the window, but they have a chance to play spoiler to the Colorado Buffaloes, who stand in second in the Big 12.
Kansas already spoiled previously undefeated BYU last week and now the Buffs are in a prime position to claim conference supremacy. However, it won’t be easy. Kansas is the victor in three of its past four games and is looking to make it four out of five.
Let’s dive into my weekly SGP and cash in on this +470 parlay I built on Caesars between Colorado and Kansas.
Kansas vs. Colorado Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
- Spread: Colorado -2.5 · Kansas +2.5
- Over/Under: 59.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Colorado -145 · Kansas +122
Kansas vs. Colorado Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Colorado -2.5
- Jalon Daniels Over 202.5 Passing Yards
- Shedeur Sanders Over 321.5 Passing Yards
Parlay Odds: +470
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Colorado -2.5
Death, taxes, and the Buffs covering the spread. It has seemed inevitable all season.
Colorado is one of the best teams at covering with an 80% conversion rate, while the Jayhawks only cover 40% of the time.
I really like Kansas’ program, and I think it’s built an exceptional squad, with terrible luck. Five out of the six losses the Jayhawks have endured have been by one possession, so there’s reason to believe they can make it close.
Additionally, with the major upset at BYU, Kansas is riding higher than ever.
However, despite what the records say, BYU is no Colorado and Jake Retzlaff is nowhere near Shedeur Sanders’ level.
What made BYU such a solid match for Kansas was BYU’s inability to generate explosive plays through the air. Kansas is exceptional at stopping the pass (28th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed) but isn’t very good at limiting explosive plays (120th in explosiveness allowed), so it forced Retzlaff to make big throws or stick to the running game – both are BYU’s weaknesses.
Colorado is the complete opposite. Sanders throws for distance, and his deadly receiver corps in Travis Hunter, LaJohntay Wester, Drelon Miller and Will Sheppard have consistently created separation at a high level.
Kansas defensive backs stated that they were ready for the challenge, but they’ve proven that they have a hard time against high-octane programs.
Player Prop: Jalon Daniels Over 202.5 Passing Yards
Jalon Daniels is such an underappreciated quarterback.
The stats may not dictate that he’s the most efficient passer, completing only 56% of his passes and 10 interceptions, but the eye test passes with flying colors.
Not only that, but Kansas is ranked 43rd in Pass Down Success Rate, and 49th in Pass Success Rate. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but they’re not atrocious, either.
Colorado’s defense isn’t exactly a shutdown force. The Buffs have allowed 233 passing yards per game in the past three games, while Daniels has averaged 224.3 in the past three.
In addition, Colorado is ranked outside the top 100 in Pass Down Success Rate allowed and 75th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
I wouldn’t say this is a “perfect storm” opportunity, but I’m merely following the trends, and I think Daniels achieving over 202.5 yards is a solid play.
Player Prop: Shedeur Sanders Over 321.5 Passing Yards
I had to rethink this one because 321.5 is a huge number, especially for a slinger like Sanders.
But as I iterated in the "Colorado -2.5" section, Kansas is below average at limiting the explosive plays. You may be surprised to learn that the Buffs rank low in explosiveness. Since Jimmy Horn has been out with an injury, the explosiveness has taken a major hit.
However, coach Deion Sanders revealed that there’s a strong chance we see Sanders’ favorite target back on the gridiron.
Even without Horn, Sanders has managed to accumulate more than 321.5 yards four times.
The potential is there, and Sanders has never been shy to air it out. If this game ends up being a shootout, there’s a high chance this number easily passes.
