Alabama vs. LSU Best Bets | Our Staff’s Picks for Saturday
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): LSU’s Brian Kelly, Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. Alabama’s Jase McClellan, Jalen Milroe and Nick Saban.
Alabama vs. LSU Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
The year may change, but it feels like you can always pencil in LSU-Alabama as a game with tremendous stakes.
The winner of this matchup has gone on to play in the SEC Championship Game in 10 of the past 12 seasons, and this year looks like no exception.
LSU (6-2) arrives in Tuscaloosa with losses to Florida State and Ole Miss, teams that are a combined 15-1. The Tigers’ chances at making the College Football Playoff are slim, but a win here could punch their quarterback’s ticket to New York for the Heisman presentation.
Jayden Daniels has commanded one of college football’s premier offenses to the top of most metrics. His 25 passing touchdowns and 11.5 yards per pass attempt lead the nation, and he already has experience taking down the Crimson Tide — he scored the game-winning 25-yard rushing touchdown to beat Alabama in overtime last year.
But the Crimson Tide defense could be his toughest date yet this season.
Alabama (7-1) is the lone SEC West team without a conference blemish, and it has rattled off six straight wins since losing to Texas in Bryant-Denny.
The Crimson Tide have improved with the play of quarterback Jalen Milroe, whose strong downfield passing game may serve as the biggest mismatch of this game against LSU’s deficient (and injured) secondary.
LSU beat Alabama by a single point in 2022, but this rivalry has been decided by double digits in seven of the 11 games prior to that overtime thriller.
This game usually helps define the college football season, so how does our staff think that definition will read? Let's dive in.
Alabama vs. LSU Spread
Alabama -3
While much of the country figures this one to be close given the winner should finish as the SEC West champion, the staff thinks the Crimson Tide should roll.
All the talk this week has been about Jayden Daniels and the prolific LSU offense, but Jalen Milroe has quietly had the second-best passer rating in the SEC on the year behind Daniels.
This Alabama offense should be more than capable against an LSU defense that ranks 82nd in Success Rate on the season. Alabama’s offense ranks 71st in Success Rate, but the explosive plays are what sets it apart.
The Tide rank 21st in explosiveness, so they're never out of a game even if they're down early.
The Crimson Tide defense hasn't been brought up enough in the chatter this week, as they rank sixth in Success Rate defensively.
While I can foresee LSU edge Harold Perkins creating problems for an Alabama offensive line that has struggled for much of this season, the Tide have continuously improved up front after being bullied by the Longhorns earlier this season.
This will be LSU’s toughest matchup to date, and we think the Crimson Tide should get it done, especially in a revenge game.
Nick Saban has been dominant in revenge games, and the staff expects his Crimson Tide to take care of business and cover -3 at home in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama vs. LSU Over/Under
Over 61.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 61.5 | 5 Picks |
Split Decision
Our staff lacks conviction on the total for this SEC West showdown with conference title implications on the line. With an even split among the staff on how to play the total, caution is warranted.
But a peek under the hood of this matchup may sway bettors one way or the other.
This is the marquee game of the weekend, and you can assume that oddsmakers took their time setting this line. The resultant output is a very efficient line right in line with most models, including the PFF total that's projected at 61.6.
The case for the over largely rests in the hands of LSU quarterback Jalen Daniels, who leads the top-ranked scoring offense in the nation. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 47.4 points per game this season.
LSU leans pass first in its game plan with a 55.3% pass rate but has been very effective on the ground as well.
Taking the under would be the contrarian play here, but there are merits to fading the over bias that jump to mind in this game.
Alabama has quietly put together an excellent defense this season. The Crimson Tide rank third nationally in the PFF defensive power rankings and have gotten there with the nation's top-ranked secondary.
Season to date, both teams have been very profitable for over bettors. In fact, LSU is a perfect 8-0 (100%) against the total, whereas Alabama is 5-2-1 (71.6%). The technical trends on the season clearly point toward a lean on the over.
The weather forecast looks perfect for an autumn night game in Tuscaloosa, with the temperature expected to be in the mid-50s at kickoff and no rain or wind in the forecast. Again, the weather points to favorable conditions for quarterbacks Daniels and Milroe to air it out.
Action Network's PRO Model projects the total for this game at 59.2 points. The model signals a lean to the under based on the market at the time of publishing and professional bettors have taken note.
The PRO Report has tracked sharp money on the lower side of the total with the under garnering just 15% of the tickets but 28% of the dollars waged on the total. It seems that the public is heavily backing the over, and a contrarian play on the heels on the sharps should be taken into consideration.
While we don’t have a formal recommendation for this game, a meritorious case can be made for both the over and under. Please use the aforementioned data cautiously and limit bets on the total to a unit or lower — and remember, there's no shame in passing.
More Ways to Bet Alabama vs. LSU
By Alex Hinton
In last year’s matchup, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels ran for 95 yards against Alabama.
LSU’s overtime victory knocked Alabama out of the SEC Championship game and, by extension, the College Football Playoff. That means this is a game Nick Saban has had circled.
I expect Saban to use a spy on Daniels to take away his rushing ability and turn him into more of a passer. However, Daniels is much improved as a passer this season, so that may not be very successful either.
If Daniels has another big night through the air, the beneficiaries will likely be Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Nabers is WR1, but his line is in the 90s, so he will basically have to rack up 100 receiving yards to clear the line. He will also draw the assignment of star Bama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Alabama allowed at least 75 yards to Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell of Texas, 88 to Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith and Tennessee’s Squirrel White. Tennessee’s Ramel Keyton also had 70 against the Crimson Tide.
I believe this matchup is most similar to the Texas game, as LSU also has two receivers likely to be top-50 draft picks.
I believe there's more value on Thomas, who's averaging 91.5 receiving yards per game himself. Thomas has hit this line in six of his eight games this season. He finished with 60 in another, but he has typically soared over this line.
Thomas has four 100-yard games this season, including 142 against Florida State. You can take Thomas for 100 receiving yards at +265 and 125 at +550 at FanDuel.
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