Tanner McGrath and Mike Calabrese are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has Saturday college basketball predictions.
When trying to put together a winning streak on the hardwood, it helps to lean into familiar teams.
With that in mind, we’re backing Shaka Smart again, double dipping from the America East and heading down to South Philly for a Big 5 matchup teeming with revenge-game angles.
So, start your day with a nationally broadcasted showdown in America’s Dairyland before locking into a three-pack of mid-major basketball games in the Northeast starting at 7 p.m.
 |  |  |  |
McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
Marquette vs. Wisconsin
I know Wisconsin has won two straight against Marquette.
And I know Shaka Smart isn’t a wizard as a road favorite like he is as a ‘dog.
That said, I just don’t think Wisco matches up that well against Marquette, and I’m going to chuck up the previous losses to variance.
Wisconsin beat Marquette last year in overtime. The Badgers made 12 3s on 27 attempts (45%), with Chucky Hepburn making five of six.
Marquette was coming off a tough win against a physical Big 12 Baylor team, while Wisconsin was in a prime bounce-back spot after dropping two close games to Wake Forest (by three) and Kansas (in overtime).
I think this spot is a tad better for Marquette, even if it’s coming on the road.
You’d think Greg Gard’s modified pack line would play well against ball-screen-heavy offenses, but Wisco’s ball-screen defensive metrics aren’t all that good. The Badgers rank in the 42nd percentile of teams in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.80) and the ninth percentile in pick-and-roll roll-man PPP allowed (1.33).
They’re 224th nationally in PnR PPP allowed by ShotQuality’s adjusted numbers (.96).
That bodes poorly against the most dangerous, versatile ball-screen offense in the high majors. Tyler Kolek is a mastermind facilitator, Oso Ighodaro is a dynamic interior scorer and a wizard backdoor-cutting facilitator and Kam Jones is among the nation’s best spot-up wings.
They’re the perfect personnel to run this scheme, and the Golden Eagles have thrived under Shaka’s tutelage.
If Wisco steps up and manages to hold off Marquette’s ball-screen attack, the pack line likely turns the Eagles into jump shooters. But Kolek (52% from 3), Jones (42% from 3) and stretch four David Joplin (39% from 3) have no problem with that.
Marquette generates plenty of open jumpers anyway, ranking in the 80th percentile of teams in unguarded jumpers generated (13.5 per game). And the Eagles haven’t even been hitting them, scoring only .93 PPP on those shots, ranking in the 19th percentile.
If Marquette can down Illinois, UCLA, Kansas and almost Purdue while not hitting open jumpers, imagine what happens once they start falling.
On the other end of the court, nobody plays through the post more than Wisco, which runs its entire offense through Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl.
But Marquette ranks in the 80th percentile in post-up PPP allowed (.68). A part of that is the Eagles have been much more aggressive with their on-ball pressure – ranking 18th nationally in defensive turnover rate while pressing at an above-average rate –so they’ve denied ball-handlers from getting the ball into the post.
I think Marq's more aggressive on-ball pressure is denying opponents the post more. Opposing ball-handlers can't even get the ball in there. pic.twitter.com/vlJRqOWcCt
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) December 1, 2023
Wisco isn’t great against press defense, ranking in the 39th percentile in press PPP (.83), which could sink it here.
Also, Marquette is coming off a game against Purdue where the Eagles had to try to defend and deny Zach Edey. I imagine it’ll be much easier to defend Crowl-Wahl, so this is a vast step down in competition – again, a tad better spot for Marquette than last year.
Wisconsin’s best trait is experience. The Badgers returned five starters from last year’s squad and suffered no significant portal losses.
But I question the ceiling of this team. Sure, bringing in AJ Storr from St. John’s has been nice. But is he — and more experience — enough to improve Wisco’s 9-11 Big Ten record from last season?
Marquette is just as experienced, returning four starters from last year’s squad, alongside former sixth-man Joplin, who’s slid seamlessly into Olivier-Maxence Prosper’s starting spot. This crew swept the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles last year, so the ceiling is very high.
(As an aside: O-Max was miserable in this matchup last year, shooting 1-for-7 from 3. This could be an addition-by-subtraction thing.)
Marquette is now 3-1 ATS away from home, with a seven-point road win over Illinois as a one-point ‘dog, a blowout neutral-court win over Kansas as a 4.5-point ‘dog and a three-point neutral-court loss to Purdue as a 3.5-point ‘dog.
The Eagles might be showing some of that experience.
Ultimately, I’m betting on a revenge game for Marquette in an improved spot from last year, primarily by capitalizing on schematic advantages in another big win for the Fighting Shakas.
Pick: Marquette ML
|  | | |
UMass Lowell vs. Merrimack
In Lowell’s last game against Stonehill, the Skyhawks broke out a zone defense, which they’re known to do.
In one of their first possessions against the look, Lowell’s trio of Ayinde Hikim, Max Brooks and Abdoul Karim Coulibaly tried to establish the River Hawks’ normal, interior-based offense. But they couldn’t develop a solid post look, leading to a Stonehill block and run-out.
That’s the thing about Lowell. The Hawks’ entire basketball persona is based around Brooks and Coulibaly’s interior presence on both ends of the floor.
If you zone them, you take away their first option – Coulibaly demands a double-team in the post against man, but you’re kind of naturally double-teaming him with zone looks – and then Lowell has to fall back on 3-point shooting to win.
The Hawks managed eight 3s on 23 attempts against Stonehill, including a clutch one late by Yuri Covington to barely escape Easton with a six-point win as 15-point favorites.
When the dust settled, Lowell scored .95 PPP in 55 possessions against Stonehill’s zone, compared to 1.40 in 15 possessions against man.
Merrimack plays more zone defense than anyone in college basketball under Joe Gallo, including Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse teams.
But it’s a weird zone. Gallo’s tricky 2-3 has his defenders playing ultra-aggressive, overplaying the wings and jumping passing lanes.
Merrimack wing bumps in their 2-3 zone defense: pic.twitter.com/qtSl7q3wKO
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) January 13, 2020
As a result, Merrimack forces a boatload of turnovers. The Warriors led the nation in defensive turnover rate last year and are top-75 this year – I expect that number to jump as the schedule eases.
That’s a good thing against Lowell, which is turnover-prone. It’s the River Hawks’ main issue. They’re sub-250th in turnover rate. Last year, they went 16-1 when Hikim recorded a positive assist-to-turnover rate and 10-7 otherwise.
So, as you may have inferred, I like this matchup for Merrimack’s defense. I think the Warriors can neutralize Lowell’s interior presence and generate turnovers.
So, why didn’t it happen last year? Lowell crushed Merrimack, winning by 26.
(Backing two teams that lost this same matchup a year ago in the same column. What could possibly go wrong?)
A few things are different in this season’s edition.
First, of course, home-court advantage is flipped. Merrimack will host this season after playing at Lowell last year.
Second, Lowell lost a ton of its 3-point shooting from last year. Between the offseason losses of Everette Hammond, Allin Blunt, Mikey Watkins and Connor Withers, the River Hawks lost 62% of their total made 3s from last season’s 26-win squad.
That’s crucial in this matchup because Lowell needs to make its 3s to beat the zone. The Hawks did that last year, but Blunt, Hammond and Withers accounted for seven of their nine made 3s in the win.
Lowell has already seen severe 3-point regression. After finishing 2022-23 shooting a blistering 38% from deep, that number is down to 32%.
Third, Merrimack has added some extra size to the interior, including a 7-footer in Jacob O’Connell, who can help swallow up Brooks and Coulibaly. The Warriors are now 290th nationally in average height, up from 320th last season.
As a result, they look improved on the interior. They’ve been better on the boards and rank 23rd nationally in 2-point defense (43%).
You’d think they’d be worse in these areas after losing All-NEC center Jordan Minor to Virginia in the offseason. Perhaps there’s some Ewing Theory stuff happening in North Andover.
Fourth, I think this is a tough spot for Lowell.
The Hawks are coming off back-to-back victories, and I think they’re due for another letdown game after struggling with KenPom No. 342 Stonehill.
They’re playing their sixth straight road game, so I think they’re tired and ready to get back home to face Fisher on Tuesday. They looked exhausted against Stonehill, allowing 38 paint points and nine fast-break points while trailing by 10 halfway through the second.
Meanwhile, Merrimack is coming off three consecutive close defeats, losing by eight at Samford, in overtime against Alabama State and, most recently, losing by two against Georgetown in a game it should’ve won.
🎥 Georgetown survives in the final seconds to Merrimack.
pic.twitter.com/7w9GoBklkT— Big East Vault (@BigEastVault) November 30, 2023
How do you not make one of those shots?!
So, I think the Warriors are a tad undervalued and due for a close win. They should at least be motivated to put together a solid crunch-time performance.
It was a different story last year. Merrimack was deflated, sitting at 0-6 against D-I opponents heading into Lowell. This season, the Warriors already have wins over Maine and North Carolina A&T, so I think morale is higher.
I don’t know how Merrimack scores — it's running a pick-and-roll heavy offense into an overwhelming pick-and-roll defense led by the quick-handed Hikim at the point of attack.
However, Lowell is due for some 3-point shooting regression on defense. Opponents are shooting only 24% from 3, and ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 32% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed. The River Hawks are also allowing way more 3s than last year (up to 37% from 32%), so more should fall.
And Merrimack isn’t afraid to shoot, ranking above-average in 3-point rate. The Warriors are due for positive shooting regression. They won’t shoot 27% from deep forever – ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 31% – and won’t score fewer than .95 PPP on unguarded jumpers forever.
Ultimately, I’m betting Merrimack rides its zone in a motivated bounce-back spot while making a few more shots against a dead-tired Lowell team due for a letdown loss.
And I’m grabbing the points with the home pup in the meantime.
Pick: Merrimack +7
The new ESPN Sportsbook is now online and you can use Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.
| | | |
Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
Yale vs. Vermont
Yale rolls into Burlington as one of the most respected mid-majors this season. The Bulldogs are the highest-rated team in the Ivy by KenPom, Bart Torvik and ShotQuality.
Offensively, four starters average 11+ points per game, and they’re uncharacteristically big for an Ivy League team. Bez Mbeng has been particularly impressive, pouring in 18 points in three straight games for James Jones.
On the other side of this matchup, we have the Catamounts, who are in search of an early-season defining win. Vermont is neck and neck with UMass Lowell in a handful of rating systems in the America East. The difference is that Vermont’s overall perception has been dinged due to recent losses to Liberty and Bradley.
Both losses came to quality opponents — one at a neutral site and another on the road — so I’m not ready to start selling UVM. What those losses have done, however, is push this spread closer to a pick ‘em by tip, and that’s good news for Vermont-backers.
I’ve gone to this well time and time again, backing Vermont at home because, quite simply, it's one of the nation’s best home teams against the closing number. Dating all the way back to 2003 — and the days of Taylor Coppenrath — UVM ranks as the sixth-most profitable home favorite among qualifying teams (at least 40 games).
Patrick Gym may be small (3,228 seats), but it provides a rare home-court advantage at the mid-major level. I love to play the Catamounts when the spread is hovering around a single possession, and that’s what we find here.
On the floor, Yale has a major advantage on the glass when at full strength, but that may not be the case on Saturday.
Matt Knowling and Yale’s 7-footer Danny Wolf would normally victimize a traditionally undersized UVM starting lineup that doesn’t start a player over 6-foot-8. But Knowling is dealing with a groin injury and is listed as day-to-day. This could neutralize the Bulldogs' big advantage over Vermont, which generally needs to shoot well to win (255th O-Reb).
If Knowling sits or is limited, I think Ileri Ayo-Faleye will be able to hold his own, as he did against Saint Louis during the Myrtle Beach Invitational (eight rebounds).
With Yale’s rebounding advantage minimized, Vermont’s ball-screen-centric motion offense should win the day.
Pick: Vermont -1.5
When betting Yale vs. Vermont, register with Action Network's DraftKings promo code today for a sign-up offer.
| | | |
Temple vs. Saint Joseph's
There’s still tickets being sold to the Saint Joe’s express, but time is running out to climb on board.
In the past week, the Hawks have taken flight. Saint Joe’s has its first potent backcourt since the Jameer Nelson-Delonte West days 20 years ago. The Hawks took Kentucky to overtime at Rupp Arena last week and then drilled Villanova on the road by 13 points on Wednesday, winning there for the first time since 2004.
And now they get a revenge spot against Temple, which has owned SJU in this Big 5 rivalry in recent years. Temple has won five of six outright, winning many of those going away.
As I mentioned, the Saint Joe’s backcourt has taken a massive leap forward this season after a promising finish to the year last spring. Erik Reynolds II has a perpetual green light from deep (44.3% 3PT) and Lynn Greer III continues to improve in his second year running the point for Billy Lange.
Speaking of Lange, it appears he’s finally turned the corner. He entered the season squarely on the hot seat after slogging through a disappointing 35-76 start to his tenure on Hawk Hill.
But his Hawks are 8-3 in their last 11 dating back to last season and have the look of an A-10 title contender. Bart Torvik rates them as the nation’s 45th-best offense, and KenPom ranks their defense 36th.
That last stat is why I feel so confident in SJU, despite the potential for a letdown coming off its marquee win over Villanova. Temple flat-out can’t shoot (38.1%, 336th), so it's likely to find itself in deep water against a red-hot SJU offense.
This may be the last time we see SJU installed as a short favorite until A-10 conference play tips in January. I would play the Hawks all the way up to two possessions, laying six points on a neutral floor in South Philadelphia.
