Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, July 19.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks & Previews Today
Frankie Montas (RHP, CIN) vs Patrick Corbin (LHP, WSH)
It seems too easy to fade Patrick Corbin at such short odds. There’s no need to dive deep on Corbin, the worst qualified pitcher in MLB over the past three seasons (516 IP, 5.77 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR).
As much as I’m looking to fade Corbin, I’m also looking to back Frankie Montas, who I believe has pitched better than his results recently.
Despite allowing five runs against the Rockies on July 10, he racked up seven strikeouts on 19 whiffs. He held the Cardinals to six one-run innings behind 17 whiffs on June 28. His velocity has trended up slightly across his arsenal.
| Start Date | Avg. Fastball Velo | Avg. Cutter Velo | Avg. Sinker Velo |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23 | 94.7 | 89.4 | 94.7 |
| May 29 | 95.6 | 90.1 | 95.0 |
| June 4 | 95.6 | 90.7 | 95.0 |
| June 9 | 94.7 | 90.1 | 93.6 |
| June 16 | 95.5 | 90.4 | 94.8 |
| June 22 | 95.5 | 90.9 | 95.2 |
| June 28 | 95.7 | 90.4 | 94.9 |
| July 4 | 95.9 | 91.0 | 94.8 |
| July 10 | 96.6 | 91.7 | 95.5 |
I feel fine about backing Montas against the Nationals lineup, which has posted a whopping 46% ground-ball rate and a measly 35% hard-hit rate against righties over the past month. While they’ve hit to a .320 wOBA and 108 wRC+ against the side during the stretch, their .305 expected wOBA and 6% walk rate indicate regression.
It’s always tough backing Cincinnati’s mercurial offense, which is among the most inconsistent in the league. Then again, anyone can hit off Corbin.
Of greater importance, the Reds have a solid bullpen advantage in this game. I love Cincy’s bullpen, which ranks top-five in reliever fWAR (4.0) behind Fernando Cruz’s unhittable splitter and the depth provided by Nick Martinez, Brent Suter, Buck Farmer and Alexis Diaz.
Conversely, while typically talented and underrated, the Nationals bullpen has been average over the past month, pitching to a 4.18 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while accounting for three losses.
We have enough evidence to support another fade of Corbin.
Bet: Reds ML (-120, bet365)
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Zach Eflin (RHP, TBR) vs Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY)
We’ll soon reach undervalued territory for the Bronx Bombers, who have been cursed with a .259 BABIP over the past month – something that only hurts Yankee fans more when considering Boston’s red-hot month.
Still, the Yankees feel like a low-BABIP team, given the inelasticity and lack of speed or athleticism in the lineup. The Yankees have won eight of 25 games since June 15. They’ve stolen one base (fewest) and grounded into 22 double-plays (eighth-most) during the stretch, ranking last in Baserunning Runs (-3.9).
With Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, you realize how shallow the Yankee lineup is. Outside of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Ben Rice, no other hitter has an above-average OPS. And given they can’t manufacture runs on the basepaths, New York is easy to pitch against.
I feel good about Zach Eflin shutting them down. The Rays righty is among baseball's most underrated starters, posting earned run indicators in the mid-3.00s since the start of last season (48 starts, 277 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.13 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.77 xFIP). He doesn’t have great stuff, but he’s among the best command-and-control guys in the league (108 Location+, 3% walk rate, 47% ground-ball rate over the past three seasons).
The other good news: Eflin has a 1.50 ERA in seven career appearances against the Yankees, striking out 48 batters while walking six across 42 innings.
While the Yankees could soon be undervalued, Gerrit Cole is likely still overvalued. His fastball velocity is still dropping, reaching a career-low this year (95.8 mph on average). As a result, he’s nibbling around the edges more, where he’s walking more batters than ever (9%) behind a career-low Location+ mark (98).
Through five starts, Cole has earned run indicators between 4.60 and 5.40. He’s posted two blowup appearances against Boston (four earned across four innings) and New York (six earned across four innings, including four walks to zero strikeouts).
The Rays continue to trend up in the lineup, posting a top-six wRC+ mark over the past month (115). The lineup is too talented to keep trending at a below-average pace.
Cole faced the Rays five times in 2023, allowing 10 runs across 24 innings (3.75 ERA).
The Yankee relievers dominated the early season while the Ray relievers flailed, but the units have since trended in different directions. Tampa’s Pete Fairbanks, Colin Pache, and Jason Adam have started to pitch better in recent weeks, while New York’s relievers have seen aggressive regression after overperforming significantly in April and May.
Ultimately, I would power rate these bullpens almost equally, with the Rays posting a 4.11 reliever xFIP to the Yankees’ 4.17 across the full season. Similarly, I would power rate these defenses equally, with the Yankees ranking 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (+27) while the Rays rank 11th (+25)
So, I think a wager on Eflin and the Rays’ lineup over Cole and the Yankees’ lineup is worth a poke at solid plus-money odds.
Bet: Rays ML (+150, BetRivers)
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Jack Flaherty (RHP, DET) vs Chris Bassitt (RHP, TOR)
I think Toronto’s lineup is uber-undervalued. After months of awful batted-ball luck, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are starting to earn better luck at the plate, while George Springer is getting back to his roots, slashing .369/.438/.708/1.146 since June 25.
Conversely, Detroit’s lineup isn’t that good, especially with Spencer Torkelson trying to rehab his game at Triple-A Toledo.
But, ultimately, I think Detroit has a massive pitching advantage in Toronto on Friday.
It starts with Jack Flaherty, a Cy Young dark horse in the American League (+4500 at Caesars) if he doesn’t get traded. Friday’s starter continues to strike out batters at an obscene rate (32% on the year).
I don’t even know how he does it. His Stuff profile is average (96 Stuff+), and he doesn’t have wicked velocity (94 mph average fastball). My best guess is that his extension (almost seven feet) and vertical approach angle (1.4, 89th percentile) provide enough deception to fool batters.
Either way, Flaherty has struck out 38 batters across his past 34 innings, posting a 1.85 ERA during the stretch.
Conversely, Chris Bassitt isn’t as good as his underlying metrics indicate. He’s never had stuff, but he’s on pace for a career-worst batted-ball profile (38% hard-hit rate, 42% ground-ball rate), upping his xERA and xFIP to 4.24 compared to his 3.52 ERA.
Of greater importance, Toronto’s bullpen is a mess. The Jays rank dead last in reliever fWAR (-1.7) by a mile (Tampa is second-to-last at -0.8), posting a league-high reliever FIP (5.03) and xFIP (4.44) in the process.
It hasn’t gotten better. Jay relievers have posted a 5.86 ERA, 4.32 SIERA, and 1.58 WHIP over the past month behind a 13% walk rate, accounting for three losses during the stretch. With closer Jordan Romano and top-performing reliever Yimi Garcia on the shelf, the Jays are toast in the back end.
I don’t think highly of Detroit’s relief corps, but they’re reasonably command-oriented and controlled, and I like Andrew Chafin’s mustache and 28% strikeout rate.
Bet: Tigers ML (-105)
McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, July 19
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