Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Mariners Odds | +130 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Seattle couldn't have imagined Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round — its first playoff game in 21 years — going any better than it did. Trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo tossed 7 1/3 scoreless innings, the offense scored three runs in the first inning and a total of four off of Alek Manoah. Andres Muñoz shut down the last five outs with relative ease and Seattle is now one game from the ALDS and a matchup with Houston.
Toronto is still at home and although the Jays' offense went quiet on Friday, it was just one game of baseball. Now, Toronto will have Kevin Gausman on the mound against the player they chose him over — former Blue Jay Robbie Ray.
Ray won the AL Cy Young with Toronto just last season and while he hasn't replicated that production this year in Seattle, his swing-and-miss stuff can play against any lineup when he's on his game.
Even though there wasn't much offense in Game 1, I don't expect the same level of run suppression in Game 2 because these lineups were both among the top seven in baseball after the trade deadline.
Seattle Mariners: Can Ray Silence Toronto's Bats?
Robbie Ray ranks 31st in baseball amongst starters with at least 70 innings pitched in K-BB% at 19.4%. The Mariners' lefty hasn't had a bad season, but it hasn't come to close to the career year he had in 2021 with a 25.4% K-BB%. Ray finished seventh in the metric last season.
However, it's not just K-BB% where Ray fell off a bit this season. His underlying process pitching metrics don't grade out that well, either. Ray has a 97.3 Stuff+ and 97.1 Pitching+, based on the model from The Athletic's Eno Sarris. Considering that 100 is the average across the league for both metrics, there's not all that much suggesting Ray is anywhere near an elite pitcher.
His season-long xERA is 3.59, while his 4.17 FIP and 3.58 xFIP all paint a pretty good, but not great peripheral profile. Ray's biggest problem comes in the splits. Toronto's lineup is absolutely loaded with right-handed bats. The Blue Jays could put out a lineup with nine right-handed bats if they wanted.
Ray against lefties in 2022: .212/.260/.387 with an 84 OPS+ allowed
Ray against righties in 2022: .236/.308/.431 with a 106 OPS+ allowed
It's difficult to see how Ray doesn't run into trouble at some point early in this game and give up runs. Toronto hasn't been elite against lefties this season, but it was the best lineup in baseball over the final two months. The Blue Jays don't strike out and have had success in past seasons against lefties.
Seattle won't keep this lineup down forever and as good as the Mariners bullpen is, their best reliever (Muñoz) is likely unavailable or will be fatigued in the late innings after throwing more than one inning on Friday.
Toronto Blue Jays: Is Gausman 100% Healthy?
The biggest question mark coming into this game is the health of Jays starter Kevin Gausman. He was pulled early from his last start in the regular season due to a cut on his finger. While that was viewed as precautionary and he is expected to be fine on Saturday, that's far from a guarantee. And, as we saw with Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley on Friday, a hand injury or a finger cut could flare up unexpectedly and cause issues.
You can't discuss Gausman without mentioning just how dominant he has been this season in Toronto with his peripherals. He's had absolutely terrible BABIP luck, but the Jays' right-hander ranks seventh in all of baseball in K-BB%. He has a 114.7 Stuff+ and 112.1 Pitching+, both of which back up his terrific underlying numbers.
His elite command should be able to keep Seattle from taking free passes. The Mariners are a patient offense and don't swing early in counts or chase, so that should help them run the pitch count up on Gausman.
Even though Seattle's lineup isn't elite, it does make plenty of contact and could force mistakes from a Toronto defense that hasn't been average by BABIP allowed in 2022.
Mariners-Blue Jays Pick
The market opened this total at a flat seven and the over has taken money. Some of the market is headed toward 7.5, but 7 (Over -115) is still available at multiple books as of this writing.
Toronto and Seattle were both top six offenses after the trade deadline. Toronto was actually the No. 1 offense and mustered plenty of hits against Castillo, but just weren't able to string them together.
There's a clear drop off in stuff and location from Castillo to Ray. Throw in the split advantage for the Jays right-handed bats against Ray's southpaw delivery and that's a recipe for Toronto to have some offensive success in Game 2.
The Blue Jays' bullpen still has some cracks and will concede some baserunners. Toronto's bullpen was 15th in xFIP and 13th in K-BB% in the regular season. Seattle should score a few runs to help this get over seven runs.
Seven is a key number and I wouldn't play the over past it. I don't have a strong opinion on the side at the current odds, but would bet Toronto at -140 or better on the moneyline.
Pick: Over 7 (-120 or better)
