One of the most popular promotions in all of the sports betting community is back once again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of 4-5 games will return your $50 maximum free bets. Note: It could be fewer than five games to reach the $50 ceiling if home runs increase again in 2023, which signs show they clearly are.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Dodgers at Pirates, 6:35 p.m. ET
Pick: Jack Suwinski +560
Suwinski has a lot of swing-and-miss in his profile that has held him back from being an everyday player in the past. But Suwinski is 99th percentile in chase rate thus far in 2023 and now gets a matchup with Noah Syndergaard, who doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff anymore.
Syndergaard's fastball grades out as one of the worst in all of baseball and that's very ideal for Suwinski and his eight barrels in his first 32 batted balls in 2023. He's top line stats have benefitted from a week in Coors Field for sure, but he also barreled 12.3% last season in 226 batted ball events. The power for homers is there and you won't get a better matchup for him from a pitcher perspective.
If you want an even longer shot, Ke'Bryan Hayes is +900 and is lifting the ball more than he ever has this season while maintaining his excellent hard hit rates. The homers will come for him.
White Sox at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
Pick: Matt Chapman +340
Matt Chapman changed his approach at the plate by ditching the leg kick and moving to a toe tap this season. Chapman said he felt he was trying to pull the ball too much and wasn't relying on the opposite field at all.
Chapman has always had excellent raw power and now that the baseball is flying a bit further again, opposite field power is playable in 2023. Chapman has four homers the other way already and some more doubles on top of that.
After a down year against fastballs in 2022, Chapman is back to crushing the pitch. Mike Clevinger has a low Stuff+ on his fastball and he's developed a home run problem on the mound because of it.
Chapman won't sustain a 33% barrel rate, but it's clear the new approach is leading to improved results. Chapman's changed approach has also helped cut his swing and miss and strikeout rate.
Marlins at Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Pick: Matt Olson +300
Olson is hitting the ball as hard on average as any hitter in baseball this season. The conditions are good for offense in hitter friendly Truist Park on Tuesday and Olson's 23% barrel rate through 52 batted balls is a career high. Fifty batted ball events is when barrel rate starts to stabilize and become predictive.
You'd still regress his projected number about halfway toward his career average, but that would project for Olson around a 17-18% barrel rate for the rest of the year. With that barrel rate against Bryan Hoeing (87 Stuff+ in Triple-A this season), he shouldn't be +300 to homer on Tuesday.
All of the rest of season projection systems have bumped Olson's numbers.
Tigers at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Spencer Torkelson +540
Torkelson has discussed openly trying to pull the ball more in 2023 and get his barrel out in front of the ball. As a former first overall pick in the MLB Draft, the potential and the raw power is clearly present for him.
He hasn't quite improved his barrel rate above 10% yet — a number I typically like to target for players to homer — but the xSLG and max exit velocity show his upside if he can tap into more of his in-game power.
He gets a very friendly matchup with soft-tossing lefty Eric Lauer on Tuesday night in Milwaukee. My colleague Sean Zerillo bet the over in the matchup and Lauer's fastball grades out as one of the worst in MLB. His fastball velocity is sitting at 90 mph and given that Torkelson struggled with fastballs more than any other pitch in 2022, facing Lauer should be a reprieve for Torkelson.
Lauer could be the perfect matchup for Torkelson to turn on one and given the favorable hitting conditions in Milwaukee, +540 is too long for the Tigers young first baseman.
Other notes:
- I will have a play in the St. Louis at San Francisco game, but the Cardinals' lineup will need to be monitored and waited on. The Giants are using righty John Brebbia as an opener for lefty Sean Manaea on Tuesday night to try to manage around the Cardinals' dominance of left-handed pitching. My two targets are Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar, but depending on lineup position and potential price, I'd settle on Paul Goldschmidt at +420 or better. Nolan Arenado crushes left-handed pitching normally, but his potential injury and recent lack of power keeps me off him. Nootbaar is likely to be the play at +600, but nothing official until the lineup.
- The wind is forecasted to be blowing in for the Phillies and Cubs games, making both a pass given the HR numbers on both games.
- Cincinnati is always a great hitters park, but no one jumped off the board given the deflated prices on Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien.
