Spurs vs. Brighton Odds
| Spurs Odds | -185 |
| Brighton Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham enters Saturday's clash with Brighton & Hove Albion as the hottest team in the Premier League with four consecutive league victories. Spurs have scored 21 goals in their last six matches, with a front three of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski in their best form of the season.
They'll now host to an underrated opponent that just picked off another North London side last weekend when it earned a 2-1 upset road win against Arsenal. The Seagulls had seven consecutive winless efforts prior to that victory, which was part of a run that included losses to Burnley, Newcastle United and Aston Villa, along with a draw to Norwich City.
For most of the last two months, the market was slow to catch up to the improvements Spurs have made under manager Antonio Conte. They're now playing as the clear, fourth-best team in the EPL, but this is the first time they appear truly overvalued in the market when you consider their price.
It might seem dangerous to step in front of the run Tottenham has been on, but this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot on the heavily favored side.
Spurs Finding New Life Behind Son, Kane
For most of the first half of the season, Tottenham was dramatically underperforming their expected goals in attack. Son and Kane went into finishing slumps at the same time and the results were catastrophic for the attack. They've been plus finishers for their careers and both struggling at the same time meant Spurs were creating chances, but not finishing them.
That said, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction of late. At one point, only Norwich had underperformed xG in attack more than Spurs. Now, Tottenham has 56 goals from 52.7 xG this season. That's about in line what you'd expect for the side as it generally will outperform the xG number by 5-10% every year because of finishing quality.
The underlying numbers have improved and that was evident. Since December began, Spurs are +0.82 xG difference per 90 minutes, which is third best in the league. Prior to December, Tottenham ranked 12th in xGDiff under former manager Nuno Espirito Santo.
The improvements have been noticeable and the betting market has finally caught up. My projections showed value on Spurs and their overs for a while, but the opposite is now true.
There is an injury concern for Spurs now that wingback Matt Doherty is out for the season. He's had a renaissance season for them and is actually producing an impressive 0.44 xG plus xA per 90 minutes. His ability to be an outlet and join the attack isn't easily replicated by replacement Emerson Royal.
Brighton Hoping to Regain Previous Form
Brighton is trending in the wrong direction under manager Graham Potter, but the club has been struck by a run of bad luck on top of bad form. The Seagulls were a bit fortunate early in the season because of all of the late goals they scored to steal victories and points.
However, the run of six consecutive losses was driven by a multitude of factors that included poor finishing and unlucky defense. The Seagulls scored one goal from 7.3 xG in that six-game stretch. They conceded 13 goals from 9.5 xGA as well.
So, while Brighton was underwater in its underlying numbers by about 0.3 xG per 90 minutes and its performances were bad, it wasn't nearly bad enough to put up the goal numbers it did.
Last week was a prime buy-low spot at Arsenal in a favorable matchup. Brighton's pressing ability really disrupts Arsenal's slow build-up style and stymied the host's attack for the first hour of the match.
The Seagulls don't quite have the same matchup edge here because their pressing system and higher line can get exposed by Tottenham's elite, quick strike and transition attack. However, the market is still low on them coming in and they've underperformed their xG by about six goals for the season.
BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Picks
The 4-0 scoreline that Spurs posted in their last match was not at all representative of how it played out. Aston Villa produced 1.6 xG and really should have scored at least once in the first half. As impressive as Tottenham attack has been, its defense still has cracks that can be exploited.
The regression indicators all suggest Brighton is undervalued to get a goal in this match. And consider how high the market is on Spurs. Tottenham, which was -180 on the moneyline against Newcastle at home two weeks ago, is -185 against a better team in Brighton, based on my projections.
My projections have Tottenham just -160 odds on the three-way moneyline, while Action Network colleague, BJ Cunningham, makes them a -136 ML favorite. That said, I'm backing Brighton getting a goal on the alternative spread line at -110 odds. I simply trust the side as a full-goal underdog to sell high on the favored club.
I'm also playing the Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager at -120 or better, due to the fact Brighton should score against the overvalued Tottenham defense.
Picks: Brighton + 1 (-110) | Both Teams to Score — Yes (-110)
