I've found my NFL player prop for Monday Night Football tonight.
For Steelers vs. Browns, I'm backing Jerome Ford for a noteworthy workload tonight. Let's get into my NFL prop.
Jerome Ford Player Prop
Tonight’s matchup could be impacted by weather as the forecast calls for a rain/snow mix with winds in the 10-20 mph range Jerome Ford is the player who could benefit the most from this matchup, and I think he has sneaky upside tonight. He offers upside in both his rushing and receiving yardage props, which is why the best play is to combine them. I’ll break down each market below.
Rushing Update
The past two games have been the first time all season we’ve seen Ford and Nick Chubb active at the same time. Chubb is coming off his devastating season-ending knee injury from 2023 and couldn't make his debut this season until Week 7. Ford operated as the team’s lead back while Chubb was out over the first six weeks of the season but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 that knocked him out for the next two games.
Instead of getting eased back in the last two games, Ford actually led the Browns backfield in snaps. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's the main pass-catching back and the Browns were in a pass-heavy, trailing-game script. That has been the norm for the Browns this season, especially since Winston took over as the starter in Week 8.
Here’s the split of how often the Browns have been tied/trailing/leading this season and also since Week 8 with Winston under center:
- Full season: Tied 23%, leading 18%, trailing 59%
- Since Week 8: Tied 27%, leading 10%, trailing 63%
- Projected tonight based on +3.5 spread: Tied 20%, leading 34%, trailing 46%
While Ford has benefited from the trailing game scripts the past couple of weeks, it has also led to him seeing fewer rush attempts on early downs. He and Chubb split early down work last week, but Chubb finished with 11 rush attempts while Ford only saw five. Based on tonight’s weather and what should be a closer game script, Ford should see fewer snaps overall, but more rush attempts when he is in the game.
When asked about Chubb’s limited playing time last week, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said, “Just having a plan with these guys, bringing them back, making sure that we’re using both guys.” He also hinted that the Browns may want to be careful with Chubb on a short week.
So, there's a chance we see Chubb have a much bigger workload tonight, which I’m projecting, but also more rush attempts to go around, which Ford should benefit from.
Receiving Upside
I mentioned above that Ford has benefited from trailing game scripts the last two games because he is the main pass-catching back who will be out there on third downs and the 2-minute offense. If the weather ends up being inclement enough to impact the passing game, it will not only lead to more run plays for Ford when he’s in the game but also possibly more checkdown passes if it’s tougher for Winston to trust pushing the ball downfield in the snow/rain/wind. The Steelers have a good run defense so if the Browns' run game is struggling, designed screen passes to Ford would be a sneaky extension of the run game.
Considering Ford is usually in on third downs, we could see a situation where the Browns are in a third-and-long and opt to just hand the ball off to Ford in order to set up their punter/kicker. We saw Kenneth Gainwell get one of these cheap runs for 10 yards last week, so we are owed one of those from the luck gods eventually. Ford is the back who would get that type of carry tonight.
Overall, Ford offers upside in both markets, but his upside is even higher if we combine them and it makes the prop less game script dependent as he should see enough touches to clear this number.
I’m projecting his median closer to 36.5 total yards with around a 61% chance he clears 29.5.
That means there’s around a 39% chance he’s held short of this number (and it loses). Again, I’ve been betting on props for more than 20 years now and if I waited for a prop I thought had a 100% chance to hit until I bet, I would still be waiting to make my first bet.
The way this prop loses is if Chubb has a flash from the past massive workload, leaving Ford for just a couple of touches and/or the Steelers defense prevents Ford from having enough efficiency to clear it. We may also see ancillary ball carriers like Pierre Strong or Kadarius Toney eat into Ford’s snaps/touches or even have a surprise like D’Onta Foreman be surprisingly active. That would help spell Chubb on early downs if the Browns commit to a run-heavy game plan before the game.
All of those worst-case scenarios are possible here, but I like the chances of him going over and his sneaky upside/higher floor we get by combining both rushing and receiving yards here.
If you miss out on 29.5 before the game, this is definitely one that should appear again in the live market. Ford might not get his first snap on the Browns' first offensive drive of the game, so definitely monitor this after kickoff to see if you can get it.
