After an exciting Week 4, I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 5.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 5, including picks for Vikings vs Browns, Cowboys vs Jets, Raiders vs Colts and Giants vs Saints.
NFL Player Props — Week 5
- TE T.J. Hockenson Over 3.5 Receptions (+120, bet365)
- RB Breece Hall Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel)
- RB Ashton Jeanty Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- QB Jaxson Dart Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (+100, BetMGM)
Vikings vs Browns Player Prop: T.J. Hockenson Receptions
The Vikings' offensive line is completely decimated, with three starters and a backup out.
On the other hand, the Browns generate pressure at the fourth-highest rate relative to expectation.
That essentially means that Carson Wentz should be under a ton of pressure, and when he is, he throws to his tight ends and running backs at more than a 50% rate (both this year and in 2022, when he last saw significant snaps in the NFL). That's more than 10% above the NFL average, which is just under 40%.
Since the start of last season, Cleveland has allowed targets to tight ends at a 25% rate, which is in the top quartile of teams. Not only that, Cleveland plays at a fast pace, so there may be a bit extra total play volume here for the Vikings as well.
I have Hockenson projected for just over four receptions, so I love getting plus money on this prop.
Pick: T.J. Hockenson Over 3.5 Receptions (+120, BetMGM)
Cowboys vs Jets Player Prop: Breece Hall Longest Rush
With Justin Fields at quarterback, Breece Hall has gained 15+ yards on five out of 41 carries from at least 15 yards away from the end zone (12.2%), and he has gone over a long of 14.5 in two out of three games.
Now, he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed opposing running backs to break 15 yards only five times out of 76 rushes (6.6%) from at least 15 yards from the end zone — a bottom-half rate in the league.
Hall has just two of his 52 carries on the season inside the 15-yard line, but since Braelon Allen is out, that number will probably pick up more, increasing his chance to hit more.
The problem is that it could also mean he could pick up an extra carry or two from more than 15 yards away.
The Jets also heavily favor zone-run concepts, using them at a 79.5% clip, which is the scheme that Dallas has fared worse against so far this year, allowing a 54.7% success rate, which ranks fifth worst.
I have Hall favored to have a long run of more than 14.5 yards as long as he gets at least 10.5 carries outside the 15-yard line, which he's very likely to do since I have him projected for 13 of those.
I'd also play this over at 15.5 at either DraftKings or BetMGM.
Pick: Breece Hall Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel)
Raiders vs Colts Player Prop: Ashton Jeanty Rushing Yards
Ashton Jeanty's rushing profile so far in his four-game NFL career matches up quite well against the Colts.
Jeanty has run 66.2% of the time with a zone blocking scheme, with a 46.7% success rate (SR) and 5.3 yards per carry (YPC) compared to a 33.3% SR and 1.86 YPC with man/gap schemes.
Indianapolis allows the fourth-worst success rate and yards per carry to zone schemes, so it only works in Jeanty's favor.
Filtering out runs inside the 15-yard line, Jeanty has his best YPC on rush attempts to the left, coming in at 5.1, even after removing his 64-yard touchdown run against the Bears, which was also a run to the left. Not only that, he runs to the left more than any other direction.
Similarly, on runs that are 15 yards away from the end zone, the Colts fare worse on rushes to the left compared to the middle or right, allowing 7.4 YPC on running back runs to the left for a 52.6% success rate.
Jeanty's volume has remained relatively game-script proof, running for 16.3 attempts in three losses to 19 attempts in the Raiders' lone win.
As significant underdogs here, 15.5 rush attempts are reasonable for Jeanty, meaning he'd need 4.3 YPC to clear this line, but with the efficiency profile being about as good as it gets, I have him clearing 4.3 yards per carry.
Fanatics has over 65.5 at -110 if you have access to that book, but I'll stick with FanDuel.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Giants vs Saints Player Prop: Jaxson Dart Pass Attempts
Jaxson Dart had 20 attempts on 28 dropbacks in a game the Giants led nearly the whole way last week against the then-undefeated Chargers.
New York's unlikely to lead that much this week, as it should be in a more neutral script, which would likely require more dropbacks.
Also, the Giants are less likely to get sacked or scramble as the Saints are 29th in pressure rate vs expected whereas for the Chargers, they were seventh.
The Giants should have plenty of snaps against the fastest-paced team in the league.
New Orleans should be able to move the ball on the ground efficiently (see Sean Koerner's note on Kendre Miller, who I was also considering), which could lead to more chunk plays and a quicker turnaround of possession back to the Giants.
Overall, I'm conservatively projecting Dart for around 34.5 dropbacks with some decent upside for more, meaning he'd need six or fewer combined scrambles/sacks.
I think against a lower-pressure team in the Saints, he'll stay under that number.
I'd play over 28.5 at +100 or longer odds.
Pick: Jaxson Dart Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (+100, BetMGM)
