Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 145-100-4 (59.2%) against closing lines, the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 154-104-7 against the closing spread over the past seven years. That equates to a 59.7% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 250 games.
In Week 7, the three unlucky teams went 1-2 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 11-5 (68.8%) ATS on the year. In these 16 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 5.5 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Luck Totals went 3-3 on the week, with weak Luck Unders going 2-2 to the under, the weak Luck Over going 1-0 to the over, and the strong Luck Over going 0-1 to the over.
Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 7-12 (36.8%) while strong Luck Totals are now 2-3 (40%) on the season.
Thankfully, this week — Week 8 — is the last week where the weak Luck Unders fail to beat the market. Starting in Week 9, weak Luck Unders have historically gone 56.5% to the under.
As a whole, all sides and strong total bets are 13-8 (61.9%%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 20-20 (50%).
Based on our Week 8 NFL Luck Rankings, there are five sides, two weak totals, and a strong total that meet the criteria.
Let's dive in.
