NFL Week 16 gets going with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
The Rams enter TNF on a two-game winning streak and in a tie for first place in the NFC West with the Seahawks, who have won four in a row.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Rams vs Seahawks preview, which includes six picks for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his rushing yards prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Charbonnet below.
NFL Prop Bet: Zach Charbonnet Over/Under Prediction
As I mentioned in my game preview, ever since their Week 11 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have seen their pass rate over expected (PROE) jump by around ~10%, so there hasn’t been as much rushing volume to go around for both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.
Plus, while the Seahawks are slight 1.5-point home favorites on the spread, this still sets up as a game where they are expected to play with the lead at a 14% lower rate than their season average.
The Seahawks have played with a lead 56% of the time this season, which ranks fourth-highest in the NFL, but historically a 1.5-point favorite only plays with the lead ~42% of the time. That gap is why I’m projecting them to play with the lead less often tonight, which could mean fewer rushing attempts overall.
Seattle also tends to mix in rush attempts for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, AJ Barner (on the tush push), and Rashid Shaheed — all of which can chip away at Charbonnet’s upside in this market.
Charbonnet tends to see more usage on passing downs and in short-yardage situations, which can limit his ceiling when it comes to rushing yards. This is also a tougher matchup against a Rams defense that ranks fourth in rush DVOA.
Charbonnet has been pretty sensitive to matchup quality, averaging 3.1 YPC in three games against top-five rush DVOA defenses, compared to 4.9 YPC in five games against bottom-10 units. On top of that, LT Charles Cross has been ruled out, which is a meaningful blow to the Seahawks' offensive line.
The weather report calls for potential rain and high winds, especially in the first half, but I don’t think it gives Charbonnet any sort of specific boost.
The wind could be at the offense's/defense's back, which could allow the defense to play closer to the line of scrimmage or make downfield passing easier depending on which direction a team is facing, so I’m mostly treating weather as neutral (or at least more neutral than the market is making it).
Charbonnet could clear this prop if the Seahawks get out to an early and/or big lead and lean heavily on the run game, or if he gets one of those tilting 3rd-and-20 draw plays that picks up a cheap 10+ yards. But I’m expecting a closer game where the Rams lean on the run a bit more without Davante Adams (doubtful), control time of possession more than usual, and limit Seattle’s overall play volume.
Tonight’s prop market is super sharp, so I don’t really see one that’s 60%+ level, but the underlying factors here led me to this as my favorite prop for the game. I’m projecting Charbonnet closer to 30 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to stay under 34.5.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
