NFL Week 3 begins with Thursday Night Football, which features the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
These AFC East rivals are trending in opposite directions early in the season as the Dolphins are winless while the Bills are undefeated.
For Thursday Night Football, I'm targeting a Ray Davis player prop as I expect the potential game script — Buffalo enters as a 12.5-point favorite on the spread — to favor the Bills' running back. Find my NFL prop bet for him below.
For more Thursday Night Football picks, check out Sam Farley's four Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets.
NFL Prop Bets: Ray Davis Over/Under
The undefeated Bills enter Thursday Night Football and deserved heavy 12.5-point favorites against the winless Dolphins.
Anything can happen in the NFL, but given Miami’s struggles on and off the field, plus the challenge of a short week on the road against a divisional rival, the spread feels about right.
Assuming the number is sharp, Buffalo projects to spend a decent chunk of this game playing with a lead of 8+ points.
That potential game script is where Bills running back Ray Davis gains the most value.
Last season, when Davis, James Cook and Ty Johnson were all healthy, Davis handled 24% of RB carries in one-score games. That number dipped to 17% when the Bills were trailing by 8+ points, but spiked to 38% when the Bills led by 8+.
With Buffalo favored to control this game, I project Davis for around 7.1 rush attempts, putting his median closer to 25 yards and giving him roughly a 60% chance of clearing 21.5 yards.
This angle is likely to gain steam and the number should only climb.
Pick: Ray Davis Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114; FanDuel)
Editor's Note: As predicted by Koerner, the line has since moved to 24.5 yards.
