Below, I have laid out my NFL prop bets for Rams vs Panthers and Packers vs Bears. Bookmark this page or follow me in the Action App as I continue to drop props for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Prop Bets — Wild Card Saturday
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rams vs. Panthers
Omar Speights Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (+104)
Omar Speights is always a tricky projection because he’s not an every down linebacker. He tends to play on early downs at a high rate and plays on 3rd/4th downs at a much lower rate. As a result, I expect him to be on the field for right around 85% of the Panthers’ run plays and just 62% of their pass plays.
After doing a deeper dive, I noticed his snap % was very predictive when looking at the Rams’ margin of victory. In their three losses over the final 10 games, we saw Speights play his three highest snap % games, averaging 84% of snaps in them. However, in their five wins of 10 or more points, he averaged just a 56% snap rate.
This makes sense in theory because as the Rams play with a bigger lead, their opponent will likely pivot to a more pass-heavy, up-tempo style of play; the types of plays Speights usually sits out as they have an extra DB on the field in place of him. However, if they are trailing, their opponent will likely be using a more run-heavy, heavier personnel approach. So I’m expecting his playing time to be on the lower end here with the Rams as 10-point road favorites.
Sure, the Panthers could be very run heavy early in the game, especially with the potential for heavy rain and wind in the forecast. But if the Rams do build a two-score lead, Carolina will be forced to throw more.
I also found another factor that could lead to him being involved in fewer run tackles. He’s much more involved in outside runs. Looking at his run tackle % based on inside vs. outside runs, he shows a pretty strong correlation with outside runs. The Falcons run to the outside at by far the highest rate, and he racked up six tackles in run support in that game (a whopping 23% rate). In the three matchups against inside-run-heavy teams (NO/TB/CAR), he had just a 13% tackle rate.
The reason he ended up with seven tackles against the Panthers in Week 13 was due to the fact that the Panthers dominated the time of possession, ran the ball 40 times, and the Rams lost, so his playing time was near a season high. It was basically the perfect storm and he still barely cleared this.
Does this mean Speights won’t get six-plus tackles here? Of course not. But this is a matchup where I project his playing time to be a tad lower, Carolina’s inside-run tendencies (both Dowdle/Hubbard run inside at a top 7 rate) hurt him, and the return of Quentin Lake could ding him slightly as Speights’ run tackle rate has been about 2% lower with Lake on the field.
In the end, I have him mixing in on around three run tackles and about two tackles on completions for a projection of 5.1 tackles (including the small chance he mixes in on a sack), with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5. Getting plus odds is nice here. He has a wide range of outcomes, but the fact that so many subtle factors point to him being closer to his floor makes this my favorite tackle prop from this game.
Pick: Omar Speights Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (+104)
Packers vs. Bears
Luke Musgrave Under 2.5 Receptions (-108)
When it comes to the Packers, you have to throw out their Week 18 game, considering they rested key players and started Clayton Tune.
But in Week 17, it was the first game we’ve seen with Josh Whyle since he left Week 15 early due to injury. In that game, Whyle was the Packers’ TE on 71% of their 3WR sets, meaning Musgrave only saw 29% of those snaps, which are the more pass-heavy formations, while playing most of the 2TE sets, which are typically more run heavy.
As a result, Musgrave only had a 41% routes run rate, which has been right around where he’s been since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury and when Whyle has been healthy and able to play a full game.
So his playing time has been limited, and this is also a game where the Packers could try to lean on the run game a bit more with Josh Jacobs closer to 100%. There’s also enough snow and wind in the forecast that it could impact the passing game.
Musgrave was a solid prospect and was actually taken a round ahead of Kraft in the same class, but he’s a different type of pass catcher and more of a downfield threat, and not very good after the catch, whereas Kraft is elite there. So either he’s going to see fewer downfield targets given the potential conditions, or if they end up scheming him more shorter throws and this things toast, but that’s not really his skill set.
The Bears have also been pretty solid against TEs, ranking 10th in DVOA against the position, and that was without their best coverage LB T.J. Edwards, who missed a handful of games in the middle of the season.
Musgrave clearly has the talent and role to clear this with 1–2 catches, so I’m going to shy away from his rec yds prop (showing value on the under 23.5, but some books are already down to 20.5) and since the main downside with him is playing time (on passing downs) I think this is the market to fade him. Projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 2.5.
Pick: Luke Musgrave Under 2.5 Receptions (-108)
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
