Let's get into my NFL PrizePicks plays for Patriots vs. Jets.
This week, Thursday Night Football has an NFC East divisional matchup of Patriots vs. Jets, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. New England (1-1) is coming off of a home loss in Week 2, while New York got its first win of the season against the Titans.
Both of these offenses have been unique so far, relying on running backs and tight ends instead of wide receivers. The approach makes sense for New England given their dearth of talent at wideout, but it sure would be nice for Garrett Wilson to get going for the Jets.
Breece Hall
More Than 29.5 Receiving Yards
Hall has been a key piece of the New York passing game so far, and Aaron Rodgers has targeted his running backs more than any other quarterback this season. New York leads the league in running back target share at 32.8%, while no other team is above 30%. Hall is tied for the league lead at his position in targets and he's second in receptions.
New England has been surprisingly competitive through two weeks, leading Cincinnati wire to wire and pushing Seattle to the brink in an overtime loss. The game scripts, along with the extra period in Week 2, have led to plenty of passing volume for New England's opponents. The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most passing attempts this season. Most of those passes have gone to wide receivers, as New England has ceded just 12 targets to running backs so far.
Cincinnati and Seattle both ranked in the bottom 10 in running back target share last season, which makes sense given the talent both teams have at wide receiver. New York doesn't have that same luxury, which is why they've leaned on Hall and Braelon Allen (to a lesser extent). If New England can put forth another competitive effort, there should be plenty of volume through the air for Hall.
Hunter Henry
More Than 3 Receptions
After a massive eight-catch, 109-yard performance in Week 2, Henry is now third among tight ends in receiving yards and fifth in receptions, and he leads the position with a massive 31.9% target share. Henry has six more targets than the next-closest Patriots player (K.J. Osborn) and pace the team in routes, targets per route run and air yardage share. He's earned 25% of New England's first-read and designed targets, which also leads the team.
The matchup sets up well for Henry's route profile. New York has plenty of talent at cornerback, so teams typically don't test them in that part of the field. The Jets had the lowest wide target rate in the league in 2023. Instead, they allowed the fourth-highest inline target rate and the eighth-highest slot target rate.
Henry has run 37.7% of his routes inline and 56.6% of his routes from the slot. He's won at both levels, with a solid 2.00 yards per route run from the slot and an elite (also unsustainable) 3.44 yards per route run inline.
Austin Hooper has played a decent role alongside Henry, but the latter has still posted a snap rate above 80% in each of the first two games. Henry should be out there plenty and continue to rack up targets from Jacoby Brissett.
Greg Zuerlein
More Than 1.5 Field Goals Made
Kickers have been amazing in the primetime games so far this season and have thrived in general. It feels like 50-yarders are just automatic these days.
Zuerlein hasn't gotten in on the fun yet, getting shut out in Week 1 and knocking in his lone attempt in Week 2. He's 4-for-4 on extra points, but the Jets haven't given him many opportunities. When New York has put together positive drives, it has cashed in, turning three out of four red-zone trips into touchdowns. Only having four red-zone tries in two games isn't ideal, but the Jets faced a solid 49ers defense on the road and then a decent Titans unit on a short week, again on the road.
A home game against the Patriots should bring more scoring looks, particularly for the kicking game. New England had one of the stingiest red-zone defenses in the league last season, allowing the fifth-lowest red zone touchdown rate. Getting stops in the red zone equals field goal attempts.
You'll have to check the weather when it comes to kicker plays, but RotoGrinders chief meteorologist Kevin Roth expects any precipitation to clear out by kickoff with minimal chances of a lingering shower.
