We're back!
Football is back in Canton, Ohio, tonight with the Chargers and Lions facing off. I have four PrizePicks plays. Check them out below!
Hendon Hooker
Less Than 99.5 Passing Yards
The Lions used a third-round pick on Hendon Hooker in 2023, knowing they could essentially redshirt him as he recovered from an ACL tear. He saw extended action in last year’s preseason and was solid, completing 66% of his passes for 300 yards (6.8 yards per attempt) across multiple games.
A deeper look at his 65 dropbacks reveals some key trends.
So, 9% resulted in sacks (seventh-highest rate over the past three preseasons). Fifteen were scrambles, and only 68% turned into actual pass attempts, which is the lowest rate among all QBs over the last three preseasons.
Hooker's 6.1 aDOT also ranked 10th-lowest among 61 qualified QBs, and Dan Campbell has hinted he wants to see a similar approach again, avoiding “flashy plays.”
I’m expecting Hooker to play the entire second half, with Kyle Allen getting the start. That means Hooker will work with Detroit’s second-unit offensive line and pass catchers. That likely means a run-heavy script with a high rate of scrambles, sacks and short throws that rely on yards after the catch. On top of that, the Chargers are expected to run a clock-killing, ground-heavy offense behind DJ Uiagalelei and Trey Lance, which could further limit Detroit’s first-half possessions.
I’m projecting Hooker closer to 89.5 passing yards, and I like the underlying trends pointing toward the under here.
Hassan Haskins
Less Than 18.5 Rushing Yards
The Chargers have a crowded RB room heading into the Hall of Fame Game. With Najee Harris (eye) expected to sit, first-round rookie Omarion Hampton should get a brief look — likely just a drive or two — before the rest of the night turns into a deep evaluation of the RB3 battle.
That leaves five backs in the mix: Kimani Vidal, Jaret Patterson, Hassan Haskins, Raheim Sanders and Nyheim Hines. It's a blend of rookies, camp flyers and a veteran in Hines who is trying to make a comeback after a jet ski accident sidelined him the last two seasons.
Haskins has logged plenty of preseason work in recent years — his 56 carries rank seventh among all RBs over the last three preseasons — but the production hasn’t been there. His 2.71 yards per carry ranks sixth-worst out of 68 RBs with 20+ carries in that span. He’s more of a short-yardage bruiser and doesn’t offer much burst, so I don’t expect the Chargers to need a long look.
I’m projecting Haskins for 4–5 carries max, which will make it tough to clear this number unless he breaks a chunk run — something he hasn’t shown much of.
Given how deep this rotation is, it usually makes sense to fade at least one back. Haskins is the one I’m targeting. I have his median projection closer to 14.5 yards and think this number is a bit too high.
Brenden Rice
Less Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Rice led the Chargers with 70 routes run last preseason, which on paper suggests opportunity — but context matters. In the preseason, playing time is everything when it comes to props. After logging that much run last year, there may be less incentive to give him as many reps this time around.
The Chargers are expected to suit up around nine wide receivers, including multiple rookies, which will make it tougher for Rice to command the same level of usage. Even if he gets more snaps than expected, it’s hard to overlook the lack of efficiency — he had one catch for 11 yards on 70 routes last preseason. Among 159 WRs who saw at least five targets in preseason, Rice’s 0.16 yards per route run ranked second-worst.
On top of that, both Uiagalelei and Lance are QBs who could scramble at higher-than-average rates, which could lower the overall pass volume for the Chargers’ offense.
There are plenty of red flags here. I’m projecting Rice’s median closer to 14.5 yards, so this is a clear under spot for me.
Jake Bates
Less Than 1.5 PATs Made
The Hall of Fame Game is traditionally a low-scoring game, which is reflected in the current total of 33.5 points. The Lions’ team total is sitting around 17 points, which lines up exactly with the 17 points per game they've averaged across three preseason games last year.
It’s essentially a coin flip whether Detroit scores 2+ touchdowns. Even if it does, there are several paths for this to hit.
1) Preseason is often used to practice two-point conversions, especially with second-stringers on the field.
2) Even with two PAT attempts, there’s still a small chance Bates misses one (he’d make about 90–95%).
3) Last preseason, he only cleared this once in three games (33%).
All of this has me projecting the under to hit around 58% of the time. This is the least confident of my four plays, so I’d only include it if you’re building a four-leg pack. I'm totally fine to leave it off and stick with the three skill player props if you want a tighter core.
