Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
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Here are the NFL Week 17 picks I made — for Jaguars vs Colts, Cardinals vs Bengals, Texans vs Chargers and Ravens vs Packers — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
This year, my early NFL hot reads are 15-14 (56%). Last year, I went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions
Jaguars vs Colts Spread/Moneyline Prediction
If you like the Colts on Monday Night as long 'dogs, you have to like them here too. I make the Colts favorites on MNF — and I make them favorites in this matchup as well — I’m trusting my numbers.
I don’t love the matchup quite as much, though.
The Colts have covered just three of the last 21 meetings against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense is way better than San Francisco’s and should do a much better job controlling Jonathan Taylor. The pass rush is also a much bigger problem for Philip Rivers given the Colts’ offensive line injuries.
That said, I really like Tyler Warren in this spot. The Colts missed him badly, and the Jaguars have been poor against tight ends.
I’m also not totally sold on the Jaguars offense. They’re running the ball poorly and won’t be able to run on Indianapolis. The return of DeForest Buckner is massive — Indy’s pass rush should have success against a shaky Jaguars offensive line.
The biggest question is on the outside: can Jacksonville’s receivers hurt the Colts’ corners? And will Sauce Gardner return?
There’s also a strong situational angle here. Teams that visit Denver are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) the following week. This feels like a classic spot to sell high on the Jaguars after such a massive win.
It’s a tougher matchup, which is why I prefer Colts +7, but I’m also sprinkling the +275 moneyline.
Picks: Colts +7 (-115; FanDuel) / Colts Moneyline (+275; FanDuel)
Cardinals vs Bengals Over/Under Prediction
Both teams are likely eliminated, but hopefully you still have some of these guys alive for fantasy championship week. Trey McBride against the worst tight end defense in the history of football? Oh my god.
I lean Cardinals +7 as well. Arizona has lost by more than a touchdown only to Houston and three NFC West teams all season.
This is a continuation of last week’s Hot Read over 45.5 against Atlanta that got hooked — a brutal beat. Missed extra point, two missed field goals, and six made field goals, including two in the red zone. That game probably should’ve cleared 60, and this one might too.
I don’t have to tell you how bad the Bengals defense is. Cincinnati has played shootouts that landed on totals of 58, 61, 64, 68, 73, 77, and even 89. Entering the weekend, the Bengals ranked 32nd in points per game allowed at over 31.
Arizona’s defense has fallen apart as well. Over their last seven games, Cardinals games are averaging 54.9 points, with five of those seven hitting 51 or more.
Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo and the most pass-heavy rate in the league with Jacoby Brissett, which means more possessions and more scoring chances for both teams — and they’re going to convert.
They can’t set this total high enough. There’s no way it stays below 54, which is the last key number.
Over 51.5 at -113 (BetRivers) is already rising, and I’m probably looking at alt overs in the 60–70+ range.
Picks: Over 51.5 (-113; Betrivers)
Texans vs Chargers Moneyline Prediction
Season-long metrics rate these teams as extremely even. DVOA has both offenses ranked 21st and 22nd, with Houston holding a slight edge on defense (2nd vs. 9th) and special teams. We also know the Chargers don’t have a real home-field advantage, which explains the line.
The offenses are trending in opposite directions, though.
Houston’s offense is improving, especially through the air. The Texans are still around league average, but the arrow is pointing up. Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense will be a tough test, but the Texans are starting to find answers.
Don’t be fooled by the Chargers’ performance against Dallas — everyone looks good against Dallas. Over the previous six games, the Chargers rank bottom-five in offensive DVOA and bottom-10 in both run and pass offense. Their offensive line is in shambles and has no chance against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
I certainly lean under 40.5 as well. Four of the Chargers’ last six games have finished at 41 points or fewer, and 10 of Houston’s 15 games have ended at 42 or below. If this is low scoring, take the defense you trust more — and probably the offense you trust more right now.
Since 2010, teams that won by 17+ points as underdogs of seven or fewer the following week are just 68-121-3 ATS (36%). DeMeco Ryans is also showing a 16% ROI as a moneyline underdog.
There’s also big-picture value here.
If Houston wins and the Colts beat the Jaguars, the Texans can win the division with a Week 18 head-to-head against Indianapolis. Texans futures — division, maybe even AFC — are very much alive. They could still be the 3 or even the 2 seed.
It all has to start with a win here. Texans +100 ML. I think they’re favored by kickoff.
Picks: Texans Moneyline (+100; bet365)
Ravens vs Packers Over/Under Prediction
If both Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love play, I still expect a cold-weather, run-heavy approach, and a defensive, playoff-style under.
If it ends up being Tyler Huntley versus Malik Willis, they simply cannot set this total low enough. Those two quarterbacks are a combined 12-3 to the under (80%) in games with totals below 44 in their careers. Keep an eye on injury news, but under anything north of 44 is in play. Absolute mineshaft season if we get those two under center.
Also worth thinking about a lookahead spot: a Packers/Browns moneyline parlay. If the Ravens lose this after losing on SNF, Pittsburgh will have already clinched the division, making this game close to meaningless for Baltimore.
Picks: Under
Anderson's Early NFL Week 17 Bets
- Jaguars +7 / Jaguars Moneyline (-110; DraftKings)
- Cardinals vs Bengals: Over 51.5 (-113; Betrivers)
- Texans Moneyline (+100; bet365)
- Ravens vs Packers: Under (check for injury news on QBs)
