The Miami Dolphins (0-2) and Buffalo Bills (2-0) play the first game of NFL Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. Dolphins vs Bills kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.; the game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Bills are 12.5-point favorites on the spread over the Dolphins (Bills -12.5). The game total is set at 49.5 (-112o / -108u). The Bills are -800 moneyline favorites on the Dolphins are +550 underdogs.
Below, you can find my Dolphins vs Bills predictions and Thursday Night Football best bets.
Dolphins vs Bills Predictions, Picks
- Dolphins vs Bills picks: 2nd Half Total Under 24.5 (-115; FanDuel); Bet to Under 23.5
My Dolphins vs Bills best bet is the second half total to stay under 23.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Bills Same Game Parlay
- 2nd Half Total Under 23.5
- Ray Davis Over 21.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay odds: +239 at FanDuel
A parlay of my two favorites picks for Thursday Night Football — the second half total going under and Ray Davis going over his rushing yards total — makes sense as they are correlated if the Bills jump out to big a lead and bleed clock late.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Lines
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | +550 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -800 |
Thursday Night Football Preview, Prediction
Dolphins Betting Preview: Can Fins Take Advantage of Injuries?
Miami is off to a disastrous 0-2 start, but its offense showed signs of life last week as Tua Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards (9.8 Y/A) and two TDs.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle look set to bounce back from a down 2024. Hill's average mph per route is up +0.28 through two games (per NextGenStats), which is a huge sign his speed is back.
Waddle was a late addition to the injury report with a shoulder issue. He’s constantly playing through injuries so I’d expect him to suit up, but the Dolphins’ offense would take a big hit if he’s ruled out.
The Dolphins' offensive line is one of the worst in the league, but they’ve done a decent job protecting Tagovailoa. He’s only been pressured on 37% of his dropbacks, which is around league average.
Tagovailoa's quick release helps as he has the fourth-fastest time to throw this season, but the flip side is he’s been sacked on 44% of those pressures, which is the highest rate in the league. That’s a QB-driven stat. Defenses are doing a good job of taking away his first read, and when he tries to buy time, it often leads to sacks. Given Tagovailoa's concussion history, he’s less willing to scramble compared to earlier in his career.
Buffalo’s defense has been solid and is always good at forcing turnovers, something Tagovailoa has struggled with (he has four turnovers in two games). I expect Miami to lean on the run early with De’Von Achane, who’s been strong as a runner and receiver. The problem for Miami is its defense has allowed so many long scoring drives that the offense hasn’t had much play volume and is being pushed into pass-heavy scripts.
The Bills will be without Ed Oliver, which is a massive loss up front, and Matt Milano is also out. Taron Johnson is questionable with a quad injury. Buffalo could be down 2–3 key defenders on a short week, and the market is probably overlooking that.
Still, Miami is missing a real presence at tight end. They traded Jonnu Smith, who was a big part of last year’s passing attack, and Darren Waller came out of retirement only to land on the shelf again.
With Waller ruled out, they’re left with Tanner Conner and Julian Hill, which makes it tougher to fully take advantage of Buffalo’s injuries.
Bills Betting Preview: Buffalo Should Roll
The Bills’ offense is humming and has a plus matchup against the Dolphins.
Miami’s defense has been a disaster; it has allowed the most plays, yards and points per drive in the league by a wide margin. The Dolphins have also allowed opponents to convert third downs at the highest rate in the league, which keeps the defense stuck on the field.
At the root of it, they’re blitzing at the fourth-highest rate, but generating the ninth-lowest pressure rate. That combo is brutal and puts way too much stress on the secondary. It’s a nightmare setup heading to Buffalo to face Josh Allen.
I expect the Bills to move the ball and put up points with ease. There’s always a chance of them overlooking Miami, but I don’t think it’s likely.
The Bills have 10 days to prepare for the Saints at home next week, followed by the Patriots, so there’s no real distraction. I expect them to be locked in.
Dolphins vs Bills Prediction, Best Bets
The spread at -12.5 feels about right. It’s a big number this early in the season, but this is one of the biggest mismatches we’ll see: one of the league’s best teams against a team on the brink of implosion.
Sean McDermott is also 6-1 against Mike McDaniel. Sharp money is likely starting to come in on Miami with the line ballooning, and the Bills are dealing with some key injuries.
Plus, this is the NFL — it wouldn’t shock anyone if the Dolphins keep it close for longer than expected. I just don’t think they’re a team worth betting on right now.
As for the total (49.5), I see the game flow being very different by half. The first half should be higher scoring, with the Bills shredding Miami’s defense and even the Dolphins moving the ball a bit against a banged-up Buffalo defense. If Miami leans on the run early, it could also help open things up in the passing game.
But I expect Buffalo to eventually pull away, then slow things down with a more conservative, run-heavy approach in the second half. That’s why I locked in Ray Davis Over 21.5 rush yards (now 23.5).
On the flip side, even though the Dolphins will be in a pass-heavy script if they’re trailing, it could make them easier to defend.
Tagovailoa's sack issues could flare up again, leading to fewer sustained drives. That sets up a much lower-scoring second half. I like locking in Under 23.5 for the second half before kickoff or at halftime.
By then, the market may already adjust to this potential scoring shift, and you won’t get as good a number.
Picks:
- 2H Under 23.5; Under 24.5 available on FanDuel
- Ray Davis Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (now 23.5)
Dolphins vs Bills Betting Trends
Bills vs Dolphins Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Highmark Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 18 |
| Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Prime Video |
