There are only 3 college football games left.
Let's make the most of them with four more best bets for the 2026 Fiesta Bowl between the Ole Miss Rebels and Miami Hurricanes.
Read on for our Ole Miss vs Miami best bets and NCAAF CFP picks for Thursday, January 8.
Ole Miss vs Miami Best Bets, Picks for 2026 Fiesta Bowl
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
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 | CFP | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs Miami Spread Best Bet
By Stuckey
I project the Hurricanes as 2.5-point favorites, so I’ll take the Rebels at anything over a field goal.
I think everyone is underestimating Trinidad Chambliss. He’s playing at an insane level. He’s almost unpressurable.
And that’s the key against Miami. The Hurricanes' strength is their pass rush, and if they don’t get home, they will give up plenty of explosive plays — and Ole Miss can hit explosives as good as any team in the country.
I also think Ole Miss can wear Miami’s defensive ends down by upping the tempo.
At the same time, I believe Ole Miss has the better offense between these two teams.
What has Miami’s offense done? Outside of Mark Fletcher breaking a few explosive runs, the Hurricanes have been mostly lifeless. Carson Beck has thrown for 241 yards across two playoff games.
Miami can run the ball against Ole Miss, but the Hurricanes don’t have an explosive rushing attack. And that might actually help the Rebels, given Pete Golding likes to play zone-heavy, bend-don’t-break defense.
Ole Miss is going to look for stops in the red zone, and the Rebels likely get a few.
But, more importantly, Ole Miss will have a monster advantage from an explosive play perspective. Beck can’t be a game manager, and he might make some key mistakes — Ole Miss likely generates some pressure on him.
Ole Miss also has a good special teams unit, while I still don’t trust Miami’s kicking situation. Additionally, Mario Cristobal-led teams are typically undisciplined, as Miami ranks 110th nationally in penalties per game, while Ole Miss ranks around the national average.
Ultimately, this comes down to Chambliss evading pressure and hitting explosive plays. If he does that, I believe the Rebels’ bend-don’t-break defense will force Beck into a few key mistakes, and they’ll be on their way to the National Championship game.
Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 or Better
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Ole Miss vs Miami First-Half Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Miami has shown the formula for competing against strong competition in these playoffs, and we have two strong data points.
In the first half, the Hurricanes played Texas A&M to a 0-0 tie and took a 14-0 lead on Ohio State (which included a flukey defensive touchdown).
Miami will be patient on offense, as the Hurricanes want to move the ball methodically on the ground. At the same time, the Ole Miss defense will invite that.
Miami’s defensive line will pressure Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, and he’s been awesome at creating out of structure. However, this game script might be different, given the Rebels have had one less day to prep against an opponent with a strong front.
I expect a significant feeling-out process for Ole Miss, which might take some time to get the offensive line's protections dialed in.
Miami has been one of the best first-half defenses in the nation, allowing just 17 total first-half points since the loss to Louisville on October 17, including five first-half shutouts. The ‘Canes will have a good game-plan for the Rebels.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 or Better
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Miami Player Prop Best Bet
By RoadToCFB
Even against the stiffest defensive fronts, Miami has fully leaned into feeding Mark Fletcher.
His past two games featured 17 carries for 172 yards and 19 carries for 90 yards. Every time Miami gave Fletcher 17-plus carries, he eclipsed 89 rushing yards.
Ole Miss’s run defense is a far cry from Ohio State (fifth in Rushing Success Rate) and Texas A&M (28th), ranking 130th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed (46.5%).
The weakness of the Rebels' stop unit comes in its defensive line (114th in line yards and 118th in stuff rate), which is where Miami has commanded games in the Playoff.
Against the Buckeyes, Miami’s offensive line generated 1.9 line yards per carry (nearly matching Ohio State’s 2.06) and that came against a unit with multiple high-NFL Draft picks in Kayden McDonald, Kenyatta Jackson, and Caden Curry.
Against A&M, Fletcher was able to break multiple runs — carries of 15-plus yards (deemed “breakaway carries”) accounted for 113 of his 172 yards.
So, both options exist. The Miami line gets a push and Fletcher benefits, or Fletcher creates the yards himself.
The biggest threat to the ‘Canes securing a spot in the National Championship — their first since 2002 — is the Rebels’ potent offense. The only foolproof trick to slowing that unit down is to keep them on the sideline.
Miami ran 67 plays per game (61st) at about 30.1 seconds per play (130th), and slowing the tempo early on will certainly be a goal for coordinator Shannon Dawson.
With any sort of lead, Miami likely goes right to Fletcher to limit opposing drives.
Pick: Mark Fletcher Over 88.5 Rush Yards
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Ole Miss Player Prop Bet
By Doug Ziefel
Chambliss has already cashed this under for me in the postseason, and he's about as reliable as it gets for collegiate quarterbacks when it comes to not turning the ball over. He's only thrown three interceptions and shown the ability to push the ball down the field without forcing the big throws.
Against Georgia, we saw him have one of his lowest aDOTs of the season, posting an 8.9. The Ole Miss offense operates at a quick tempo, and Chambliss's ability to get the ball out to his speedy wide receivers to let them operate in space is the goal the majority of the time.
Chambliss's accuracy, combined with this scheme, drastically reduces the chance of him throwing an interception, which is critical against a Miami secondary that has been a big part of their two upsets, forcing turnovers and gaining momentum.
Look for Chambliss to continue to operate efficiently and keep the ball out of harm's way as he looks to lead the Rebels to an upset victory of their own.
Pick: Trinidad Chambliss Under 0.5 Interceptions
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Collin Wilson's Action Network App Bets
Need more picks for the CFP semi-final games? It's always wise to see what our guy Collin Wilson is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and follow all your favorite experts.
