Heading into Week 13 of the 2024 college football season, there are a number of things that still need to be decided. First and foremost are which teams will make the conference championship.
With so much to look at, I'll dive into each conference and break down which teams are still alive and what they need to make their postseason dreams come true.
I'll help provide clarity on each conference below to help you better understand which games still hold significant meaning for the conference standings.
Keep in mind that these implications can speak to motivation this late in the season.
Let's take a look at my college football conference championship scenarios for Week 13 of the NCAAF season.
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AAC
This one is easy. Tulane will face Army in the conference title game.
However, we still don't know where that game will take place. If both teams win their final league game (Tulane vs. Memphis, Army vs. UTSA), then whoever finishes highest in the College Football Playoff rankings will play host.
If both teams lose those respective games, then a composite computer rating will be used.
ACC
This is now a three-team race for two spots between Clemson, Miami and SMU.
Clemson is already done with its ACC schedule, finishing up at 7-1 in league play, while both Miami (vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse) and SMU (at Virginia, vs. California) each have two remaining conference games.
If both the Hurricanes and Mustangs win out, they will face off in the ACC Championship in Charlotte, NC due to Clemson's loss to Louisville, which would cost it the common opponents record tiebreaker.
That's also the case if SMU only drops one of its final two games.
Therefore, unless Miami loses once or SMU loses twice, Clemson will be on the outside looking in with one exception if the following happens:
- Virginia beats SMU and Virginia Tech
- Pitt beats Louisville
In that scenario, Clemson would win the tiebreaker over SMU.
Big Ten
Four teams remain alive: Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. The Ducks have clinched a spot, Ohio State and Indiana control their own destiny, and the Nittany Lions need to win out and get help elsewhere.
Oregon sits atop the league standings at 8-0 and will enjoy a bye this week. The Ducks have already clinched a spot in Indianapolis, as the Big Ten has determined they can’t finish worse than second in the standings.
Oregon will now face the winner of Ohio State-Indiana — unless the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers and then lose to Michigan. In that scenario, the Nittany Lions would move into the No. 2 spot, assuming they win out (at Minnesota, vs. Maryland).
Meanwhile, Indiana would clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win over Ohio State even if it somehow then loses to Purdue.
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Big 12
As expected, the Big 12 is chaotic. There are nine teams that still have a mathematical chance of reaching the conference championship game. My favorite scenario is Texas Tech vs. TCU.
However, it would require utter mayhem for the five teams that currently sit at 5-3 in league play: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State and West Virginia.
Therefore, let's focus on the four teams with the most realistic chances:
- BYU (6-1)
- Colorado (6-1)
- Arizona State (5-2)
- Iowa State (5-2)
The first three teams all control their own destiny since Arizona State will host BYU this weekend. Therefore, if Arizona State wins out (vs. BYU, at Arizona), it will clinch a spot in Arlington, regardless of what happens elsewhere due to tiebreakers.
The same is true for Colorado (at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State) and BYU (at Arizona State, vs Houston), which would obviously stay one game clear of the field with no more losses.
Meanwhile, Iowa State (vs. Cincinnati, at Kansas State) needs help. The Cyclones' best path involves winning out, plus having Colorado and BYU each lose one more game since the Cyclones would win all tiebreakers over the Buffaloes and Cougars due to their superior conference opponents record.
Therefore, they're rooting for a four-way tie at the top.
Another path involves Arizona State beating BYU and then losing to its in-state rival, in which case Colorado's results wouldn't matter to Iowa State.
If the Cyclones lose to Kansas State in the finale and there's just a three-way tie at the top between Colorado, BYU and Arizona State, then the Buffaloes would be on the outside looking in.
I could go into some other crazy scenarios, but this weekend's results in Kansas City and Tempe should go a long way in determining which two teams are left standing.
In regards to clinching scenarios this weekend, there are only two teams that can clinch:
- BYU can do so with a win plus a Utah win
- Colorado can with a win plus wins by BYU and Utah
Conference USA
As a result of Western Kentucky's shocking home upset loss against Louisiana Tech last weekend, all four teams still alive now control their own destiny:
- Jacksonville State (6-0)
- Western Kentucky (5-1)
- Sam Houston (5-1)
- Liberty (4-2)
How is that possible? Well, they all play each other over the final two weeks of the season. Jacksonville State just needs to win one of its final two games (vs. SHSU, at WKU), while Liberty needs to sweep (vs. WKU, at SHSU).
In the event of a four-way tie at 6-2, Liberty would host Western Kentucky after tiebreakers are applied.
If Jacksonville State beats Sam Houston and Liberty beats Western Kentucky this weekend, Jacksonville State will clinch the No. 1 seed, which means it will host the CUSA Championship game.
That would make its regular-season finale against Western Kentucky fairly meaningless, which would be bad news for Sam Houston and Liberty, as the winner of their game would need WKU to lose to clinch a spot.
The most likely matchup as of now is Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State. In fact, both teams can clinch a spot in the title game with victories this weekend since WKU owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Sam Houston.
In that scenario, WKU and Jax State would play two weeks in a row with the winner of next week's clash in Bowling Green determining who gets to play host.
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MAC
I believe there's one insane scenario where Northern Illinois (5-3) can make the conference championship, but it's not even worth exploring given what it would take. Therefore, we will focus on the six teams that still have a viable path:
- Bowling Green (5-1)
- Miami Ohio (5-1)
- Ohio (5-1)
- Buffalo (4-2)
- Toledo (4-2)
- Western Michigan (4-2)
The three teams tied atop the standings all control their own destiny since Bowling Green will host Miami (OH) in the final week of the regular season.
It's worth noting the Falcons have a much easier game this week (at Ball State) than Miami (vs. Northern Illinois) and Ohio (at Toledo).
However, Bowling Green loses many tiebreakers in the event it suffers another loss due to the weak record of its conference opponents.
If all the chalk holds over the final two weeks, Bowling Green would finish as the No. 1 seed at 7-1, while there would be a four-way tie for second place between Miami (OH), Toledo, Western Michigan and Ohio.
In that scenario, Toledo would get the No. 2 seed as a result of having the strongest conference opponent record.
There's a decent shot we get a rivalry game in the MAC championship with either BG vs. Toledo or Miami (OH) vs. Ohio. Although, if there's somehow a five-way tie for first place, we'd most likely get Miami (OH) vs. Toledo due to tiebreakers.
I won't go deep into the paths for Buffalo or Western Michigan until next week, as each needs to win out and hope for help. It could even come down to a SportsSource Rating Score tiebreaker in some wild scenarios.
However, if you're rooting for Buffalo, for starters, you want Toledo to beat Ohio and Northern Illinois to beat Miami. Buffalo needs to finish tied with just Toledo (or Toledo and Western Michigan) for second place, which would require Miami and Ohio losing out.
Conversely, Western Michigan would get in if tied with just Ohio (or Ohio and Buffalo) for second place, which would require winning out, Miami losing out, Ohio beating Toledo then losing to Ball State, and Bowling Green winning out.
Confused? You should be because I am as well.
Mountain West
OK, this one is a relief after the MAC. There are three teams still alive for two spots:
- Boise State (6-0)
- Colorado State (5-0)
- UNLV (4-1)
While Boise State technically hasn't clinched a spot yet, it effectively has. It will officially with a win over Wyoming (its final league game) as more than a three-touchdown favorite.
However, even with a loss, in the event of a three-way tie for first place, the Broncos in all likelihood would not finish behind both Colorado State and UNLV in the computer composite ratings.
Colorado State also controls its own destiny, as it would reach the Mountain West Championship (almost certainly to be played in Boise) with wins at Fresno State and vs. Utah State to close out the season.
However, if the Rams slip up in either and UNLV takes care of business at San Jose State and vs. Nevada, it would come down to a blended computer rating in which case I'd imagine the Rebels would get the No. 2 seed.
Colorado State and Boise State can both clinch spots this weekend with victories combined with a UNLV loss on Friday night.
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SEC
Six teams are still alive:
- Texas (5-1)
- Georgia (6-2)
- Texas A&M (5-1)
- Tennessee (5-2)
- Alabama (4-2)
- Ole Miss (4-2)
Both Texas (vs. UK, at TAMU) and Texas A&M (at Auburn, vs. Texas) control their own destiny, but they do play each other in the final week of the regular season.
If both the Longhorns and Aggies take care of business this weekend, the winner of that game will most likely take on Alabama, assuming the Crimson Tide win out (at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn) since they would win all multi-team tiebreakers due to conference opponent strength of record.
The one exception would be if all these results happen:
- Missouri loses out (at Mississippi State, at Arkansas)
- Tennessee beats Vanderbilt
- Texas wins out
In that scenario, Texas would get the No. 1 seed and Georgia (which has no more remaining SEC games) would actually leapfrog Alabama in the multi-team strength of conference opponent record tiebreaker even though Alabama beat the Dawgs head-to-head.
In the simplest terms, Alabama just needs to win out and get one more Missouri win.
In regards to Ole Miss and Tennessee, their paths are both extremely unlikely.
For example, Ole Miss needs to win out plus have Alabama lose one more game, Vanderbilt beat Tennessee, and Texas A&M lose out. That would give Texas the No. 1 seed and create only a two-way tie for second place between Georgia and Ole Miss in which the Rebels would get the No. 2 seed as a result of their head-to-head victory.
However, if it's a three-way tie for second with Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss, Georgia would get the nod.
Without complete chaos, this is essentially a four-team race between Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. Things should be much clearer in next week's update.
Sun Belt
OK, we're going to finish up with another headache.
We still have divisions in the Sun Belt, so let's start with the East, which is now a three-team race:
- Marshall (5-1)
- Georgia Southern (4-2)
- James Madison (4-2)
Things really opened up with Georgia Southern getting upset by Troy last weekend.
Marshall obviously now controls its own destiny but has a tough finish to the season with road games against Old Dominion and James Madison.
As a result, if James Madison can win at App State and then beat Marshall, it would win the East as long as Georgia Southern drops one more game (at Coastal, vs. App State) since the Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dukes.
The Eagles also beat Marshall in a crazy comeback, which means they'd also win a three-team tiebreaker. Therefore, if Marshall slips up once, Georgia Southern gets in with a 2-0 finish.
Believe it or not, there's also a scenario where JMU can win the East even if it loses this weekend to App State, but it would need Marshall and Georgia Southern to lose out.
Considering Marshall and Georgia Southern are both small road underdogs this week (while JMU is laying over a touchdown on the road), this thing is wide open with the Dukes in the driver's seat if the chalk holds.
Moving onto the other division, there was also an upset last weekend in the West that made things very interesting with South Alabama beating previously unbeaten Louisiana.
As a result, three teams are now just one game back of the Ragin' Cajuns:
- Louisiana (5-1)
- Texas State (4-2)
- South Alabama (4-2)
- Arkansas State (4-2)
Louisiana obviously still controls its own destiny with two winnable games left on the schedule (vs. Troy, at ULM).
However, if it slips up in either, that could open the door for South Alabama if the Jaguars can win out (at Southern Miss, vs. Texas State) since they would win the tiebreaker.
But if Texas State beats South Alabama in that scenario, Louisiana would win the tiebreaker. As a result, Texas State and Arkansas State need much more chaos.
For example, Arkansas State needs to win out plus have Louisiana lose out and Texas State lose at least once. In that scenario, the Red Wolves would either win the division outright or win the head-to-head tiebreaker over South Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas State also needs to win out and hope Louisiana loses out. If that's the case, the Bobcats either finish all alone in first or win the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arkansas State.
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