The spiritual heart of college basketball is the Cinderella. You don’t need one to make the Final Four for a season to be a success, but you certainly need a few scrappy underdogs to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament to feel as though you’re enjoying peak college hoops.
College football, for whatever reason, loathes Cinderellas. Media members like Nick Saban, Paul Finebaum and Joel Klatt railed against programs like Tulane and James Madison for much of December.
According to these pundits, small school access to the College Football Playoff was an affront to the sport.
But it wasn’t just the Group of Five entrants that were in need of more respect.
Indiana, forever a basketball school, earned the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP, yet opened as the shortest bowl favorite against a team ranked ninth or lower in 63 years. All Indiana did was thump Alabama by 35 points in the Rose Bowl.
That last sentence was so far-fetched just two years ago that had it appeared in print, people would have called that prediction “AI slop.”
We're now guaranteed one of these four possible outcomes: A first-time national champion (Oregon or Indiana), Ole Miss’ first undisputed national title or Miami’s return to glory following 22 years without as much as a conference championship.
Given the NIL spending and brand recognition, these teams hardly qualify as true Cinderellas, but they’re nonetheless party crashers by college football standards.
First, we need to whittle this field down from four to two, so let's start with the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
Here are my 2026 CFP predictions and my College Football Playoff picks for Miami vs. Ole Miss in the CFP semifinals.
2026 CFP Prediction, Pick: Miami vs. Ole Miss Semi-Final
- Pick: Miami -3.5
My best bet for the 2026 Fiesta Bowl is on the Hurricanes to cover the spread.
2026 Fiesta Bowl Odds: Miami vs. Ole Miss Spread, Over/Under
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -175 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
How To Make Fiesta Bowl Picks: Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels
As someone who loves Cinderellas more than anyone, I must begrudgingly admit that when the clock strikes midnight, things get really ugly for our ladies in the glass slippers.
For instance, when 12-seeds make it to the second weekend and face 1-seeds, it’s been a horror show (0-20 SU, 8-12 ATS).
Now, Ole Miss is far from a Cinderella in terms of talent. The Rebels boast the 21st-rated roster in the country, according to 247Sports, featuring 36 blue-chip recruits (4- or 5-stars).
What they do have that matches with hardwood Cinderellas is an emotional undercurrent.
This playoff run has been fueled, in part, by spite. Lane Kiffin’s absurd exit has motivated this team to play its best football, but it has also created an unprecedented distraction for Ole Miss’ coaching staff.
Five assistant coaches who remained with Ole Miss through their upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl are now down in Baton Rouge with Kiffin as full-time LSU staffers.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is headed for LSU as well, but he has worked out a deal with Kiffin and his Ole Miss bosses to remain with the Rebels until this playoff run is done. That kind of coaching brain-drain is significant.
I believe these coaching issues will play a part in an Ole Miss loss, but it’s really the mismatch in the trenches that seals its fate.
The Hurricanes have the nation’s best pass rush, a Havoc-minded back seven and a ball-hawking mentality (25 takeaways, ninth).
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has played at an All-American level this season, but he was bothered by disruptive fronts on two occasions against Washington State and Florida.
Wazzu’s pass got home three times while creating 11 pressures. Florida sacked Chambliss five times on 10 pressures.
As a double-digit underdog, the Gators led Ole Miss in the fourth quarter, and the Cougars nearly pulled off a seismic upset, falling by three as 33-point underdogs.
The point being, if you can consistently pressure Chambliss with four rushers, the Ole Miss offense is containable.
Defensively, the Rebels should get bullied on the ground. The Canes just ran for 153 yards on an elite Ohio State run defense. Mississippi’s run defense ranks 65th and a troubling 92nd in Line Yards.
Prior to a fourth-quarter injury, Georgia’s Nate Frazier was killing the Rebels on the ground at 5.7 yards per carry. His absence on the final drive may have cost the Bulldogs a shot at a national title.
Miami's Mark Fletcher is set up for a massive game, which would be in line with his ascending play as the sixth-rated RB per PFF this season.
The Rebels' magical season ends in Atlanta. I would play Miami up to the edge of a full touchdown at -6.5.
Pick: Miami -3.5 (Play to -6.5)
