Early March is a wonderful time in the college basketball world. Spring is blooming. Small and mid-major conference tournaments are just beginning. Bubble teams are looking to bolster their resumes for the tournament.
The sheer volume of games on a given day can seem overwhelming, but for the value-seeking bettor, focusing on one or two games can prove to be quite profitable.
Tonight, one Pac-12 game sees two teams in very different situations heading into the postseason. Arizona State (19-10, 10-7 in conference) is looking to solidify an NCAA Tournament berth.
The Sun Devils host Washington (13-16, 3-13), a once promising team that has completely unraveled down the stretch.
Odds as of Thursday at 12 p.m. ET and via PointsBet. Get up to $275 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Washington at Arizona State Odds
- Spread: Arizona State -6
- Over/Under: 142.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Coming off two road losses, Arizona State returns to the friendly confines of Desert Financial Arena, where they are 6-1 straight-up in Pac-12 games this season.
Led by junior guard Remy Martin (19.6 ppg), Arizona State is projected as a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN's Joe Lunardi. While most likely safe on the bubble, coach Bobby Hurley and his team will be motivated to protect against a late season slide as they head into the postseason.
On the other hand, Washington has been completely abysmal since conference play started in January. The Huskies have been even worse on the road.
Not only are the Huskies 0-7 straight-up as a road team in Pac-12 games, they have failed to cover in every single one of those games. 0-7 ATS! Quite impressive.
Washington is essentially locked into the last seed in the Pac-12 tournament, and there is no indication that the Huskies will give an inspired performance tonight.
A deeper look into advanced metrics shows just how bad Washington has been in 2020. According to KenPom, the Huskies have an offensive efficiency metric of 95.5 in conference games (10th in the Pac-12). They have an offensive turnover % of 21.9 in those games, which is dead last in the Pac-12.
Arizona State’s defense, on the other hand, has a defensive efficiency metric of 98.7 in conference games (No. 5 in the Pac-12). They have a defensive turnover % of 21.8 in those games, which is No. 1 in the conference.
In simpler terms, Washington’s already poorly efficient offense struggles mightily with turning the ball over, and Arizona State is very good at forcing turnovers.
Look for Arizona State to stifle Washington defensively by frustrating a young Huskies team which is prone to turnovers. Forcing turnovers is not only a key to winning basketball games, but it is essential to covering spreads.
Arizona State will also likely fit one of my all-time favorite college basketball systems tonight.
Single-digit home favorites, with sharp money behind them (spread tickets over 60%, spread money over 75%) cover in-conference games at a 56.9% clip, good for an ROI of 9.9%.
As of writing, over 70% of spread tickets and over 90% of the spread money is on the Sun Devils. This could change as more bets come in, but the current sample size of bets indicates that Arizona State will fit this system by tip time.
I'm riding with the Sun Devils tonight, but always remember — be your own sharp. I’d bet this line up to -7.
Pick: Arizona State -6
