The Vermont Catamounts take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama, on Wednesday. Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
The Cats upset UAB on the road, 67-62, to open the season, while No. 11 Auburn is playing in its first game of the season before seeing No. 4 Houston this weekend.
In this matchup, the Tigers are favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is also set at 143.5 points..
Here are my Vermont vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday.
Vermont vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Under 143.5
My Auburn vs Vermont best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Vermont vs Auburn Odds
| Vermont Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -105 | 143.5 -105o / -115u | +1160 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -115 | 143.5 -105o / -115u | -2800 |
- Vermont vs Auburn spread: Auburn -16.5
- Vermont vs Auburn over/under: 143.5 points
- Vermont vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -2800, Vermont +1160
- Vermont vs Auburn best bet: Under 143.5
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the under 143.5 in what I expect to be a low-scoring rock fight.
My Pick: Under 143.5
Vermont vs Auburn College Basketball Betting Preview
Johni Broome's decision to forgo the NBA draft and return to Auburn for his fifth year of college basketball was among the biggest SEC stories of the offseason.
Auburn will again have one of college basketball's most dominant rim-oriented offenses and defenses, primarily because Broome is a monstrous finishing presence on offense and an even better shot-blocking presence on defense.
The 2023-24 Tigers ranked 22nd nationally in 2-point offense (55%) and first nationally in 2-point defense (43%), scoring 37 paint points per game (93rd percentile) while allowing 28 (83rd percentile).
There are a few different schematic matchups to break down for Wednesday's Cats-Tigers game, but it all points toward a lower-scoring rock fight.
The Catamounts run a down-tempo, five-out spread offense predicated on spot-up shooting. But the great thing about having an overwhelming paint-deterring presence like Broome is that it allows your guards to play aggressively on the perimeter, therefore running opponents off the 3-point line.
The Tigers ranked top-50 nationally in 3-point rate allowed and top-40 in low-quality 3s forced last season, thus I don’t expect the Cats to generate many open jumpers.
Vermont’s offense often stalled last year because when the shots weren’t falling, it didn’t have an interior back-to-the-basket post scorer who could drag defenses toward the interior and re-open the five-out spread offense.
While the Catamounts wisely snagged Shy Odom in the transfer portal to cure that issue, the Howard transfer is still sidelined with an ankle injury.
Auburn’s aggressive defense has weaknesses. Specifically, the Tigers foul like crazy and leave weak-side second-chance opportunities open. But the Catamounts' perimeter-oriented attack won’t even attempt to exploit those potential opportunities — last season, Vermont ranked 347th nationally in offensive rebounding rate (22%) and 280th in free-throw rate (29%).
Vermont eschews second-chance points in favor of steady ball-handling, transition denial and compulsive defensive rebounding, which will have some trickle-down effects against the Tigers.
Auburn plays aggressively on defense because it wants to generate turnovers and start running in the open court. Last year, the Tigers ranked second in the SEC in defensive turnover rate (18%) and third in transition frequency (19%).
However, they won’t generate any against Vermont, which has ranked in the top 15 nationally in offensive turnover rate since the beginning of 2021.
The Catamounts' five-out spread offense ensures they boast an elite transition-denial defense because everybody is already halfway back toward the basket before the opponent can start gunning — they ranked fourth nationally in fast-break points per game allowed last year (six).
When the Tigers aren’t running in the open court, they’re attacking in the half-court by cutting, rim-running, playing volleyball with the offensive glass and drawing fouls.
But the Catamounts boast one of mid-majordum’s best and most disciplined interior defenses — they shut off the interior (28th nationally in 2-point defense last year) while never fouling (37th in free-throw rate allowed) and rebounding everything (ninth in defensive rebounding rate).
Ileri Ayo-Faleye is a stud interior anchor who can wall up on the block (.67 post-up PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), hold roll-men at bay (.36 roll-man PPP allowed, 95th percentile), shut down opponents in isolation (.36 ISO PPP allowed, 96th percentile) and swat shots at the rim (6.8% block rate, 96th percentile).
While he doesn't have a big frame (6-foot-8, 210 pounds), he’s obscenely athletic, bouncy and mobile, which ultimately translates against almost any opposing big man.
If you need evidence of how he’s done against Power Five competition, look no further than last year’s first-round NCAA Tournament game, where Duke’s Kyle Filipowski scored three points on one shot from the field.
For further evidence, check out these three post-up defensive possessions against the absurdly talented Yaxel Lendeborg from Monday’s upset win over UAB.
I feel good about Ileri at least minimizing Broome’s impact on Wednesday.
Auburn’s backcourt should have some extra pop this year with Furman transfer JP Pegues taking over point guard duties. He’s a stud ball-screen creator who cans 36% of his long-balls, and the Tigers can space the floor around Pegues-Broome sets with Denver Jones (42% from 3 last year), Chad Baker-Mazara (42% from 3 last year) and Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly (32% from 3 last year) spotting up on the perimeter.
But Vermont point guard Shamir Bogues is among college basketball’s best perimeter point-of-attack defenders.
He’s lengthy, laterally mobile and swarms opposing ball-handlers while showing lightning-quick hands. He defended 87 ball-screen sets last season and held opponents to 21-for-68 shooting (31%) with 16 turnovers.
And Vermont's guard corps is lengthy, with four backcourt rotational pieces standing between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5.
With Ayo-Faleye anchoring the interior, the Cats leverage that perimeter length to contest every spot-up opportunity — over 70% of opposing catch-and-shoot jumpers were guarded last season, the third-highest rate nationally.
I feel good about Shamir and Co. at least minimizing Pegues and Co.'s impact on Wednesday.
Vermont’s other ball-screen coverage defenders are shaky, and Auburn will generate some half-court opportunities. But I don’t expect the Tigers to be overly effective, and I believe most of their full-court opportunities will get shut off at the outset.
Also, could Auburn be looking ahead to Saturday's battle with Houston? While it’s a season-opening game against an outstanding low-major squad, it could still be easy to sleepwalk for 40 minutes against an America East squad.
Meanwhile, I have genuinely zero clue how Vermont scores.
It was easy to pour in 10 triples on 27 attempts (37%) against UAB because the Blazers’ perimeter defense is soft. Auburn’s perimeter defense is the opposite of soft — the Tigers ranked fourth nationally in spot-up PPP allowed last year (.79) because the 6-foot-4 Jones and 6-foot-7 Baker-Mazara contested everything aggressively and with authority.
As a bonus, Broome cleaned up any mess on the back end.
There were rumors about Vermont head coach John Becker potentially upping the Catamounts' pace this season. Still, those seem to be smoke and mirrors after the Cats played a 62-possession game against a reasonably up-tempo Blazers offense.
Schematically, I’m expecting a rock fight.
Plus, the projection market shows some slight value on the under, with Bart Torvik projecting 139 points, EvanMiya projecting 141 points and KenPom projecting 143 points.
