Texas A&M vs Missouri Odds, Pick
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Missouri fans must feel as though the memory of their first NCAA Tournament win since 2011 is quite distant. Dennis Gates took the reins of the Missouri program last season and delivered that NCAA win in his first year. Despite his early success that culminated last March, this year's version of the Tigers is in a completely different state.
Missouri has lost eight consecutive games to begin 2024, leaving the Tigers still in search of their first win of the calendar year and in SEC conference play. Texas A&M will be fully intent on extending Missouri's losing streak as the Aggies need every win they can manage to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies don't fit the mold of a typical Buzz Williams team. They struggle to take care of the ball at times, don't look to push tempo and are not forcing nearly as many turnovers as Buzz's usual teams.
Texas A&M has yet to lose any games that would qualify as bad or embarrassing. However, the Aggies certainly haven't solidified their NCAA Tournament bid yet, and Wade Taylor's inconsistent play has been a key factor in Texas A&M's volatility thus far.
Taylor is averaging 19.8 points per game this season, which ranks third in the SEC, but Taylor does not always score efficiently. He has the ability to shoot his team to a victory they may not deserve (as he did against Kentucky) or shoot his squad right out of a game they may otherwise have won.
Memphis narrowly defeated Texas A&M earlier this year on a night when Taylor missed all nine of his 3-point attempts and hindered his team badly. Just this past Saturday, Taylor almost cost his team a home win against Florida by finishing 5/18 from the floor. To make matters worse, Taylor's defensive contributions don't add a ton of value to his team on those poor shooting nights.
When Taylor's shooting has gone cold, Williams and the Aggies have turned to Tyrece Radford. Radford was his team's best player in the much needed win against the Gators on Saturday, as he scored 26 of Texas A&M's 67 points. He's also a much better rebounder and defender than Taylor, and the fifth-year senior is in his third season with Williams. In road environments like Mizzou Arena, Radford's leadership will be key for the Aggies to maintain the poise necessary to win.
Missouri Tigers
In fairness to the Tigers, their 0-9 SEC record is not indicative of their competitiveness. Six of their nine conference losses have been by single-digit margins, including each of their four most recent games. If their recent efforts are any indication, the Tigers haven't given up on their coach.
The 4.5-point spread certainly implies that a Missouri win wouldn't be much of a shock. College basketball is full of young men whose focus levels are far from consistent, making it easy to believe Texas A&M could overlook a feeble 8-14 Missouri team.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, the Aggies have forfeited the right to overlook any team. The Aggies are 4-4 in the SEC and lucky to be there after surviving Florida by one point.
Missouri's home fans are also unlikely to turn out in masses for a midweek contest in a lost year for their team. There shouldn't be much of a home court advantage for Missouri in this one. After home losses to Memphis, Jackson St. and an Arkansas program in turmoil, Tigers fans will likely be tuning in from their couches, if at all.
Sean East's marked improvement has been lost in a tough season for Missouri. East has more than doubled his scoring average total from last season as he is now averaging 15.6 points per game. Meanwhile, he's facilitating the offense and has been Gates' primary ball-handler throughout the year.
Most impressively, he has become a 46.6% 3-point shooter this season after shooting a horrid 22.2% from 3 last year. East is likely to draw the assignment of slowing down Taylor for Texas A&M, meaning he will likely be heavily relied upon on both ends for 35+ minutes.
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither team is intent to push pace, so my selection of betting the over makes me slightly nervous. However, offensive efficiency should be really high on both ends for two reasons.
First, the Aggies have guards who are likely licking their chops against an inferior opponent. Taylor loves to chuck up shots from everywhere and will be looking to fill the stat sheet. When Taylor misses, Texas A&M is the best offensive rebounding team in the SEC, and Missouri's weak interior is not equipped to keep Texas A&M off the glass.
Second, much of Missouri's roster is unlikely to return to Columbia next year. Many players may be looking for individual success rather than team success. Missouri's roster will look to put up impressive numbers and accumulate good tape as they enter the transfer portal this offseason. The individual success they may seek offensively could lead to bad shots and transition opportunities as well as defensive breakdowns.
I'm taking the over and trusting offensive efficiency to rule on both ends.
