All 30 MLB teams return to action on Tuesday night in what is a stacked slate.
Bobby Miller makes his MLB debut for the Dodgers as they take on NL Cy Young contender Spencer Strider and the Braves.
In two battles between AL East heavyweights, the Yankees open a three-game series with the Orioles behind ace Gerrit Cole, while the Blue Jays and Rays face off in Game 2 of their series.
The Astros enter with a nine-game win streak after dispatching of Corbin Burnes and the Brewers last night. Meanwhile, the Mets look to extend their win streak to six against the Cubs.
Here are my thoughts on six games from Tuesday's MLB slate, including a couple of player props.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:10 p.m. ET
Dylan Cease vs. Logan Allen
Dylan Cease has taken a step back from last season. But as an underdog against Logan Allen, I'm willing to take a stab on the right-hander.
Allen has been incredibly lucky thus far. His xERA is over two runs higher than his actual ERA, and he has a concerningly high xBA (.286) and xSLG (.471). While he doesn’t walk many batters, his chase and whiff rates rank around league average, and his barrel rate has neared double digits.
Both Cease and Allen have hard-hit rates near 50%, but Cease has been slightly better overall.
I also give the edge to Cease in this starting pitching matchup given the long-standing history from the right-hander.
The biggest difference between these two has been LOB%. Cease is all the way down at 64.7%, over 10% less than his career average and nearly 18% from last season. Allen, meanwhile, is at 82.9%, when most projections had him around 70%.
We should see positive regression from Cease and vice versa for Allen, who has lucked into a lower ERA than expected.
As for offenses, the edge goes to Chicago. It's a plus team against lefties — 105 wRC+ — while Cleveland is down at 25th against right-handers. The Guardians have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball despite their ability to put the ball in play and their low strikeout rate.
Even with the early money coming in on Cleveland, I would back the White Sox at plus money.
Also look toward Luis Robert Jr. (253 wRC+ vs. LHP) or Jake Burger (227 wRC+) props, as both crush southpaws.
Pick: White Sox +108
Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:35 p.m. ET
Nathan Eovaldi vs Rich Hill
Rich Hill haunts my nightmares. Despite concerning advanced metrics, the 43-year-old has given up two or fewer earned runs in one of his last seven starts.
Look at his numbers and he has career lows across the board. His xBA is .289 and his xSLG is up at .520. He’s given up a 12.6 barrel rate — all three stats rank in the bottom 11% of pitchers — yet he has a 3.80 ERA vs. 5.87 expected.
Hill’s velocity is low, he doesn’t generate many chases or swings and misses, and it’s only a matter of time before he negatively regresses.
I expect that to come against a Rangers offense that hits southpaws extremely well. But I’m targeting a couple props here rather than a team total or side.
Ezequiel Duran is a player who I backed on Saturday, and I am back on the wagon today against a lefty. Duran is slashing .381/.435/.619 with a 140 wRC+ against lefties and has plenty of speed to turn a single into a double.
In his 16 hits against southpaws, 37.5% have gone for extra bases.
I'm backing him to go over 1.5 total bases (+130) at .5u and I'll make a small dabble on his HR prop. The best number is +630 at FanDuel.
I also like Josh Jung here. He has absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this season — .341 average and a 1.065 OPS — with extra bases on 47% of his hits.
He enters with a six-game hit streak, and he’s finished with over 1.5 total bases in half the games. Similar to Duran, I’m on his o1.5 TBs (+125) at .5u with a .1u bet on him to find the bleachers at (+550).
Picks: Duran Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) & to Hit HR (+630) | Josh Jung Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) & to Hit HR (+550)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 6:40 p.m. ET
Jose Berrios vs. Taj Bradley
This is too stark of a pitching discrepancy for me over the first five innings. I wrote about backing Taj Bradley here, as the right-hander has underperformed heavily in his first four starts of the season.
Bradley has dominant stuff. His strikeout rate is near 35% and he’s produced a .183 xBA and .320 xSLG. He has excellent command, and despite that, his xERA (2.52) is over a run lower than actual (3.54).
Opposite him is Jose Berrios, a consistent fade among my fellow colleagues at Action Network. His xERA remains in the 5s and his barrel rate (10.4%) has taken another step back from last season.
Opponents have a .493 xSLG against Berrios, too, which is a concern against a Rays offense that has torn apart right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay is first in wRC+ (133), ISO and wOBA.
Yandy Diaz has returned to the Rays’ lineup and has cemented himself as a dominant bat for Tampa Bay. Berrios has a tendency to give up the long ball — five home runs in his last four starts — and while his strikeouts have taken a step up, Tuesday presents a perfect fade opportunity.
Rather than trusting the Rays' bullpen — which is deep but has some concerns with MLB’s second-worst 4.80 xFIP — I would back Bradley and the Rays over the first five innings down to (-125).
Pick: Rays F5 (Down to -125)
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET
Alex Cobb vs. Sonny Gray
Two of the hottest pitchers in baseball square off on Tuesday night, so why not fade both with an over?
Alex Cobb has been long overdue for negative regression. The right-hander has a hard-hit rate that’s crept toward 50% and his xERA (3.98) is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (1.94).
His strikeout rate has dipped for a third straight season and his barrel rate has nearly doubled from last season.
And to top it all off, his 88.1 LOB% is merely unsustainable in the long run. Not even MLB’s elite can consistently stay at that number.
Cobb gave up five hits and walked five more against the Phillies his last time out, yet escaped with just two runs over 3 1/3 innings. The leaks have begun to show, and now he faces a Minnesota offense in its positive split.
As for Sonny Gray, the right-hander has been much more impressive, but there are still a few concerns. A 1.64 ERA is hard to continue despite the increase in strikeouts and a .209 xBA.
Gray has seen his walks increase and his LOB is also in the mid-80s (84.2%). He has yet to surrender a home run despite a 7.3 barrel rate — much of that is because of an increase in ground balls.
Yes, Gray is better off than Cobb in the long run, but his xERA (3.16) and xFIP (3.37) — while still impressive — show that he’s overdue for a bad outing. The Giants are in their best split in a game where a total at 7.5 is way too low.
Both of these offenses are more than capable of lighting up the opposition. While Minnesota is 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, it's inside the top 10 in walk rate and sixth in ISO.
The Giants? They’re seventh in wRC+, fifth in walk rate and third in isolated power.
Both bullpens grade out above average, but this is a fade of starting pitching more than anything. I would back the over of 8.
Pick: Over 8
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Eury Perez vs. Austin Gomber
Anytime I have an opportunity to fade Austin Gomber, I’m going to take it.
The left-hander ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA (.310) and xSLG (.558). His strikeout rate has dipped for the third straight season while his walk and barrel rate near double digits.
I’m not sure how Gomber remains a starting pitcher in the pros. His xERA is 6.97 and there’s no sign of him turning it around. His fastball has been teed off on (.407 xBA), and without consistent chases or command, he has to rely on his hard stuff rather than his curveball (.196 xBA).
It’s also Miami’s best split. The Fish crush left-handed pitching, ranking inside the top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA.
Opposite him is the dynamic 20-year-old rookie Eury Perez. It’s been a limited sample size for the right-hander, but his impressive 33.3 K% showcases how dominant he can be.
With a fastball in the high 90s, there are opportunities for hitters to turn on the ball and find the seats — as we saw with Hunter Greene. He’s given up three home runs over 9 2/3 innings, but he has otherwise closed the door consistently.
I wouldn’t read too deep into his two-game sample size, as Perez is one of the best young arms in baseball.
And anytime you can fade Gomber, you have to do it. Back the Fish over the first five.
I also like Bryan De La Cruz both to go over 1.5 total bases (-120) and to hit a HR (+550), at .5u and .1u, respectively.
De La Cruz has a 119 wRC+ and a .500 slugging against left-handed pitching. Over his last 15 days, he has a .413 average and 1.166 OPS. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in eight of his last 10.
Picks: Marlins F5 (Up to -130) | Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) & to Hit HR (+550)
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Luis Medina vs. Marco Gonzales
Hello, Marco.
After an incredibly successful fade of Gonzales the last time out against Boston — 1 2/3 innings of eight-run ball — he gets a perfect bounce-back spot against the Athletics, right? Wrong!
I’m going to continue to fade the southpaw, who has seen his xBA skyrocket to .291 this season. Opponents continue to hit the soft-throwing Gonzales hard; 7.7 barrel%, .465 xSLG and his lowest hard-hit rate since his rookie season.
Yes, this is the 10-39 Athletics with the worst bullpen in baseball. But take a look at their offense and you may be surprised. Oakland is 11th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and above-average in both ISO and wOBA.
That brings me to Brent Rooker. While his numbers have dipped a bit in recent weeks, this is a power-hitting righty who absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. In 44 at-bats, Rooker is hitting .318 with a 1.108 OPS.
His wRC+ against lefties is 160 — way above average — and 43% of all his hits have gone for extra bases. Gonzales’ command is normally above average, but he struggles to overpower hitters and often relies on pitching to contact.
That’s in Rooker’s wheelhouse. I put .5u on his total bases prop (+120) and .1u on him to hit a home run (+360).
At +200, I’m also throwing .5u on the Athletics ML. Gonzales should never be this heavy a favorite, and I don’t think the difference between Luis Medina and Gonzales is that stark.
