The San Diego Padres (23-19) host the Seattle Mariners (27-15) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
While both starting pitchers (Logan Evans and Stephen Kolek) have had varying degrees of success in their short time as big-league starters, that could all be set to change as a hungry Mariners offense steps into a favorable spot against a ground-ball pitcher whose defense is bound to let him down.
Find my Mariners vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Mariners vs Padres Predictions
- Mariners vs Padres pick: Over 8.5 (-118) | Play to Over 9 (-110)
My Mariners vs Padres best bet is the game total to go over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Padres Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Seattle Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +142 |
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -170 |
- Mariners vs Padres Moneyline: Mariners +142, Padres -170
- Mariners vs Padres Total: 8.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Mariners vs Padres Run Line: Mariners +1.5 (-148), Padres -1.5 (+124)
Mariners vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Evans (SEA) | Stat | RHP Stephen Kolek (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.60/4.56 | ERA /xERA | 0.00/2.31 |
| 4.76/5.06 | FIP / xFIP | 2.40/3.41 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 5.9% | K-BB% | 13.5% |
| 32.0% | GB% | 59.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 98 |
Mariners vs Padres Preview, Predictions
Mariners Betting Preview
It hasn't been the prettiest start to Logan Evans' career, but thanks to an error by Ben Williamson in his second outing, he's been able to maintain an acceptable 3.60 ERA with five unearned runs charged to his line.
The surface-level stats simply don't tell the story, which is to be expected after just 15 innings at this level. Evans has struggled to limit walks, issuing two free passes per start, and he's come home with just 11 strikeouts.
If you want to look for positives, the Mariners rookie has never struggled with command in his short minor-league career, and his walk rate has been well below the league average in the past two seasons.
However, we've seen several players take an immediate hit in the strikeout and walk departments when graduating to the highest level.
Evans has also allowed two home runs in his three outings — something that's once again foreign to the right-hander, who has pitched primarily to ground balls in his career, but so far in the bigs, he owns a lowly 32% rate of contact on the ground.
Pitching in Seattle, or San Diego for that matter, you're going to want to keep the ball in the air — so that much is fine.
He's limited hard-hit balls and barrels, too, so while he's struggling mightily to miss bats and find the zone at times, there's at least a chance he pitches well here — barring a reversion to his ground-balling ways.
For a rotation ravaged by injury, this is a tryout for all intents and purposes. So far, his .285 Expected Batting Average and pure luck with the unearned runs haven't exactly inspired confidence Evans can stick around with the big-league club.
Padres Betting Preview
Stephen Kolek is another arm with a limited sample size that we're still trying to figure out.
The experiment San Diego ran to convert him into a starter after a dreadful year out of the bullpen wasn't off to the best start after he posted a 6.38 ERA in five turns through the rotation in Triple-A. However, in the majors this year, he has yet to allow a run through 14 1/3 innings.
Kolek is fresh off a seven-strikeout complete game against the free-swinging Colorado Rockies, and prior to that, he struck out four Pittsburgh Pirates through 5 1/3 scoreless innings. Now, he'll step to a much stronger offense — but one which has been down on its luck of late.
The Padres right-hander can't expect to strike out as many batters this time around, given Seattle is working on a 22.6% strikeout rate in the last two weeks, and in the same vein, he's posted a weak 18.1% whiff rate and 21.2% strikeout rate thus far.
He has been able to limit walks, at the very least. While giving up some hard contact, Kolek has continued pitching to ground balls at an extreme rate, as we've seen throughout his minor-league career and his first season at this level in 2024.
Since the start of last season, Kolek has had one of the highest ground-ball rates in the game, and while that has helped him limit power, it may not be the best idea for this team.
Not only does his park reward fly-ball pitchers, but his defense also does not reward ground-ballers because of their league-worst -14 Outs Above Average defensively in the infield.
Mariners vs Padres Predictions, Betting Analysis
Seattle may be starved for power, with a .128 ISO in the last 14 days, but this season has been more about contact and walks than anything else.
It ranks seventh thus far in wRC+ thanks to a 10.3% rate of free passes and a .239 batting average, which isn't exactly great but represents a drastic improvement from where it was a season ago.
On top of that, the Mariners rank ninth in OPS versus ground-ball pitchers, six spots ahead of their ranking in the reverse split, and we can rest on that sentiment, given the story was exactly the same a year ago.
The luck machine should run out for Kolek when faced with his first real test as a starter, and the fact that he's walked two batters in each of his two starts gives me confidence that Seattle should be able to populate the bases enough to punch across runs in this one.
We also can't look past the Padres' awful infield defense, which, combined with their starter's very high 45.9% hard-hit rate, should result in plenty of hits.
On the opposite side, San Diego has excelled against fly-ball pitchers with a .787 OPS that ranks fifth in the league, and its continued excellence in plate discipline should put pressure on Evans to throw more strikes — something he's struggled with thus far.
This should be a very trying start for two inexperienced arms who are due for some massive regression. While the Mariners have cooled a bit at the plate, there's no reason to believe they can't get to Kolek on account of what they've done for the last month and a half.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)
Moneyline
The overwhelming majority of the tickets and the handle are on the Padres here, but given the equally-shaky ground both starters find themselves on I'd be inclined to play the Mariners at this price if I were to take a side.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres are an impressive 16-5 to the run line at home this season, and Seattle has covered in just three of its last 10.
Over/Under
Naturally, despite what I've laid out above, some of our experts are on the Under here. It's certainly a contrarian spot, with 83% of the tickets and 89% of the money coming in on the Over.
